Posts from March 2008
Fierce Wind Update
Finally a little tidbit on my pick for the Florida Derby, Fierce Wind. He did drop like a stone about half way through, I thought something must have been wrong beyond just not being able to keep pace.
Fierce Wind, who finished 10th in the 12-horse field, was found to have bled in the race, according to trainer Nick Zito. After the race, Fierce Wind was transferred by owner Halsey Minor to trainer Rick Violette Jr. Minor, who has the brilliant filly Dream Rush with Violette, purchased Fierce Wind privately before the Florida Derby.
Also, interesting note about the connections. I guess Nick Zito can’t train them all!
Posted by dana on Mar 31 2008
Filed Under: 2008, 3yo, Derby Trail
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Georgie Boy Sidelined
Georgie Boy off the Derby Trail with pulled muscle (Charles Pravata)
Damn it… I really was looking forward to seeing his next prep! Although I think of the California horses El Gato Malo stands to benefit the most from a faster pace scenario a la Big Brown & War Pass (a.k.a the only 2 speed horses in the whole lot).
Sierra Sunset also would have looked more plausible under the fast fraction scenario but using that logic King’s Silver Son starts to look intriguing.
Not to worry, I’ll be updating my Derby Dating selections… one has to stay flexible if one wants to pick the most appropriate suitor(s) for the big dance!
Posted by dana on Mar 31 2008
Filed Under: Charles Pravata, 2008, 3yo, Injury, Derby Trail, Racing
(No Ratings Yet) Loading ...Learning from the Past
My own, that is. I spent the day catching up on a lot of things I normally would do at the beginning of the year… setting up my filing system for this year, doing some general tidying of my work area, etc.
Part of this long neglected task was addressing the giant undealt with pile of past performances that had accumulated near my desk. My first thought was that there might be some value in keeping them around, but as looked through them my notes were not exactly full of the kind of insight that warrants keeping giant piles of paper in a Manhattan apartment.
It wasn’t a total wash, I confirmed what I had started to suspect yesterday afternoon… I really shouldn’t play the Dubai World Cup. I didn’t hit anything last year or this. I don’t pay too much attention to international racing and without the running lines and workouts I may as well just throw my money out the window (again).
I also didn’t do so hot on last year’s Florida Derby card either… but better than this year in that I cashed one ticket. I had the trifecta in the Skip Away (A.P Arrow, Rehoboth, Political Force).
A few other items of note… I happen to do well with claiming & allowance races at Belmont, I play a decent amount of trifectas and more often than not I have 2 of the horses with the 3rd coming in 4th. Also, I’m really not afraid to gamble!
On that note, one of the many phone conversations I had with Swifty yesterday went something like this:
me: “you can watch race replays on twinspires”
Swifty: “really? cool, let me call you back”
Swifty: “I’ve realized a fear today… twinspires is really easy to use. a little too easy”
me: “why do you think I’m down so &*^%-ing much already this year?”
Posted by dana on Mar 30 2008
Filed Under: Dubai World Cup, 2008, Twinspires, Trifecta, Money Management, Gambling, Derby Trail, International Racing, Racing
(No Ratings Yet) Loading ...The Law of Unintended Consequences
In the immortal words of the fictional Gordon Gekkco, “greed is good, greed is right and greed works“. Yes, but usually not for us, the horse players.
One can argue that greed is the predominant reason why our horses don’t race for very long. One can also argue that greed is a factor in why our horse don’t race very often. One can even go so far to as to say that greed plays a role in why our horses have become so unsound.
Enter the law of unintended consequences and we have greed to thank for Curlin, our horse of the year and now the world champion, running as a 4 year old.
To hear Jess Jackson tell it, you’d think the whole thing was a well thought out orchestrated move designed for the long term betterment of the sport. But with two of Curlin’s part owners being lawyers indicted for swindling the plaintiffs of a class action lawsuit against the makers of the the diet drug Fen-Phen, there is a bit of a monkey wrench thrown into the mix.
The three lawyers are also the target of a civil case brought by the plaintiffs, some of whom have asserted that Gallion and Cunningham used proceeds from the case to purchase Curlin, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes. The lawsuit, filed in 2004, is scheduled to go to trial in September.
At the time of the year when a champion 3 year old is making his final curtain call, the greed of two of Curlin’s owners disturbed the “natural order” and kept Curlin in limbo long enough to make it not only plausible, but attractive to keep him in training as a 4 year old.
Hooray for greed! Greed owes us big time… and it seems as though greed knows how to return a favor!
While we’re on this roll, let’s hope that greed comes through in the long run and proves that it can be just as profitable, if not more so, to run your fancy pants horses past 3… hell, they might even get a little better with age (and fetch you more money in the breeding shed)!
I’m guessing that if you were risk averse you might not be involved in horse racing at all, right?
Posted by dana on Mar 29 2008
Filed Under: Greed, 2008, 4yo, 3yo, Curlin, Breeding, Fans, Let Horses Race, Racing
(No Ratings Yet) Loading ...Balance Restored
Well, so much for the dearth of speed horses, it seems as though Big Brown has restored some balance!
I found the hardest part about handicapping the Florida Derby was trying to figure out if Big Brown would set the pace and if so, provide exactly the kind of fractions we saw today, i.e., fast.
In my notes there were a couple of horses who would benefit from a fast pace: Smooth Air, Cool Gator, BB Frank, Majestic Warrior and Tale of the Cat. Of those, I definitely thought Smooth Air and Majestic Warrior stood the most chance to make some noise. Tomcito was a total pace unknown to me so I didn’t know what to make of him.
I keyed almost all of my bets with Fierce Wind so it didn’t work out to well for me from a betting perspective, but I thought it was a thrilling yet quizzical race. In addition to being flabbergasted by Big Brown’s jaw dropping performance, I was equally flummoxed by Fierce Wind & Elysium Field’s no shows.
I was pleased with Smooth Air and thought as they came around the final turn he actually had a shot to catch Big Brown (which was extra exciting as I had a little win bet on him). Además, yo estaba muy satisfecho con el rendimiento de Tomcito (gracias Google Translate!).
I’m looking forward to watching the replay and reading all the speculation and hype that’s no doubt being produced right this very moment.
Posted by dana on Mar 29 2008
Filed Under: 2008, Gulfstream Park, 3yo, Derby Trail, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Racing
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