Running Style Imbalance
Yours truly is back from impersonating a business traveler (and not such a hot impersonation at that). I had a couple of posts I wanted to do but was either too tired or lacking free wireless. I have to get crackin’ on my handicapping for tomorrow, but you know I like to procrastinate!
I’ve been noticing a lot discussion about this year’s crop of 3yos lack of consistent 100+ Beyers, not only here but around ye olde blogosphere as well. I haven’t had a chance to investigate all the points everyone is making too closely (consider my first paragraph the excuse) so pardon me if someone else made this point already… I think this is really a function of the imbalance of running styles (as first noted here in the second to the last paragraph).
Are there any other confirmed speed horses besides War Pass? I don’t think there are (please let me know if I’m forgetting anyone). For example, if you look at Pyro’s Beyers in his two races with War Pass, they both broke 100. He had a 100 in the Champagne and 105 in the BC Juvie. And I’m not just talking about Pyro here… I believe all of the other contenders this year, aside from War Pass are either closers or stalkers, so how can you knock them for slower Beyers if they don’t have a speed horse to chase?
Posted by dana on Mar 28 2008
Filed Under: Pace, Running Style, 2008, Pyro, 3yo, War Pass, Derby Trail
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I am lost by your logic and statement that War Pass is the ONLY speed horse.
There are plenty of horses that enter into graded races that are “speed horses”, probably too many. Pick any day in the racing form and we can all pick the speed in each and every race. Give me a lone speed horse with an 75 beyer versus a field of closers with 85 beyers any day. I will take it on any dirt track in the country and even on turf races.
Then there are straight up Beyer number which I believe is “not a system to pick winners” or even win money. Look at a horse that runs a mile and sixteenth on the turf and compare it across the board to their dirt races. The far far majority of the time the turf beyer is higher by plus 7-10. Does that mean turf horses are better than dirt horses?
Speed horses in a race have no effect on the overall beyer nor does a fast pace scenario lead to a faster time overall in a race. I do believe, however, that a good stretch duel at the top of the stretch could lead to a faster time.
So please explain what you mean about the relationship to speed and beyers.
BTW: The beyer numbers picked “Smarty Jones” as the winner of the Derby, yet Mr Beyer picked another horse on TV. Go figure it.