New Poll, Stardom Bound in SA Derby?
I’m a little perturbed with all the spin about Stardom Bound being “barely best” beating an “unheralded” field and that her connections should face the “sobering reality”.
I couldn’t sum it up any better than Alan at LATG when he says:
Expecting to read the praises of the gritty win by Stardom Bound in the SA Oaks, I was surprised, and rather disappointed, to instead see it being framed in disappointment.
As Frankel put it, “She only ran 10 lengths farther than anybody else in the race”. Call me crazy, but I think having to overcome a wide, hideous, bumpy trip and still gutting it out to win is a plus, not a minus. But when one gets away on an easy lead with no challenge and wins by several lengths, well that’s impressive.
She’s staying put in my top 10 list for the PDI Index, I liked what I saw. (update: I removed her from my list after they announced she was off the trail. If she were still on the trail she would have remained at #2). Would I rather she had an effortless 6 length win? Sure, but what would she get out of that? The Oaks was probably the kind of race she needed if she wants to step up in to open company, and I hope she does!
But what do you think? Do you agree with Iavarone’s oversimplified (whoops, sorry!) assessment that she could “barely beat the girls” or do think she’s shown she can still get the job done even under adverse circumstances?
As for the last poll, it should come as no surprise that Chantal Sutherland was your favorite jock on Jockeys, Win or Die Trying. But, just like Stardom Bound in the Oaks, it wasn’t a runaway and she had to gut it out for the win! In the beginning it was a battle between Talamo & Gryder, but it didn’t take long for Sutherland & Smith to take over and battle for the lead. All the while Kayla Stra was in the mix and for several days she was on top!
There were a whopping 191 votes, that’s almost double the last most voted on poll (your biggest issue with the Breeders’ Cup) and I didn’t even promote this one! The final tally was 45 for Sutherland, 43 for Smith, 42 for Stra, 27 for Talamo, 26 for Gryder and 8 for Court.
As always, thanks for voting, even if you did you show up from a Google search for “pictures of Chantal Sutherland”!
Posted by dana on Mar 08 2009
Filed Under: Kayla Stra, Jockeys TV Show, Iavarone, Aaron Gryder, Joe Talamo, I Want Revenge, Jon Court, Mike Smith, Stardom Bound, Chantal Sutherland, Derby Trail, Grrrr, Bobby Frankel, Poll, 2009, Impressive, Racing
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Dana,
I heard on Thoroughbred L.A. this a.m. that Frankel is deferring questions to the IEAH “brain trust.” This was his quote on the SA website:
(Asked about running against males in the $750,000, Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles on April 4): “I’m not talking.”
So if he’s so non-committal, isn’t that saying he’s concerned about her chances. I believe Frankel privately will urge STARDOM BOUND be sent to Keeneland for the Ashland (G.1) on April 4. With an emphatic win there, I’d agree she’s deserving of a shot at the boys.
So, I didn’t vote yet. I am requesting an additional option to the poll: “Maybe, depends on how impressively she wins her final prep against fillies.”
Hey AmCap - yeah, I saw that “I’m not talking quote” yesterday, but it seemed very typical of any decent trainer of any type of horse about a next move right after a race. Of course one wants to make sure they come out of the race ok, see how the work and have some time to consider all of the options, that’s they’re job. I don’t read anything in to that one way or the other.
Good point on the additional option, I’ll add it… thx!
Just realized that question doesn’t work with the poll as there’s not enough time for her run another race before the SA Derby. If the poll was more general about trying open company I would add the question, it’s a good one.
I was thinking about this earlier today … if she gets the same trip in the Santa Anita Derby that she had in the Oaks yesterday, Stardom Bound finishes no better than third, because she’ll be running against horses like Pioneerof the Nile, who tracks closer to the pace and has so far demonstrated quicker acceleration. He outkicks her, no question. So … I’d like to see her in the Santa Anita Derby, but I also see it as being a very difficult race for her, which is not to take away at all from yesterday’s gutsy performance. After being forced wide on the turn, then interfered with in the stretch, getting her nose up first really is testament to her ability. I can’t recall a more exciting finish or better display of heart this spring.
J - good points. It looked to me like she wasn’t on her A game yesterday. If she brings her A game in the SA Derby and has a better trip I think she’s got a shot, but you’re right, it won’t be easy.
Dana,
Sorry, I, like many others, had put “Kentucky” instead of “SA” in front in your Derby poll.
So for me, it’s a no for the SA Derby. I’d like to see her go in the Ashland at Keeneland April 4. Then I’ll decide about where she fits among the boys.
My gramps once told me that horses run against other horses, so he had a little Canani in him, or maybe it’s the other way around? My gramps also told me to always bet the 10 horse in the last race. So don’t get caught up in figures or times. Did the horse win? Yes. That’s all that matters.
Anyway…I don’t doubt that Stardom Bound can take on the boys. And, wow that’s five straight G1’s in a row? Who’s the last one to do that? Does seem to me though that there is an over-preponderance of 3YO(f) G1’s in CA this time of year.
If the IEAH boys have their eyes set on the Derby for this one (which I’m sure they do!), they don’t need to go to the SA Derby. I’d take her to Oaklawn for the Fantasy for the much bigger test - the dirt test! She’s won her last four all at SA. Time to see how she ships, how she likes dirt, etc. This spot will probably yield little competition too. Win, get the money, ship up to CD, start working out and see what happens.
I ain’t sold on PoN anyway. This one is turf, through and through. If she were to win the SA Derby the question would be about dirt afterwards. We all know girls can beat boys…we don’t know much about this synth stuff.
As much as I dislike siding with Iavarone, I assume he is not clueless regarding horses. IEAH has acquired good horses and while it might not all be him, he must have some insight.
By all accounts, SB was coming into this race in great shape. Shocking it would be if someone was lying, I know, but if they didn’t think she was doing well they probably would have downplayed her chances and not been looking past this race. She has come that wide before and flown by the competition so I don’t know that this wide trip of hers is all it’s made out to be. Maybe she was off, maybe she was sore, maybe she was randy.
Maybe the rest of the girls are catching up to her.
As a fan, it would be amazing to see SB run in the Derby and run well. As an owner, one puts the horse first. If they don’t think she can handle the boys, and in the Derby nobody is going to give her a pass, then they should do what they think is right. IEAH is shallow enough that if they think they have the smallest chance, they will go.
In this instance, caution is the better part of valor and (man this kills me) IEAH is doing the right thing.
BTW…Smith, sandwiched between Sutherland and Stra? Lucky bastard.
AmCap - sorry for any confusion
o_crunk - you are SO right, the question to that really needs to be answered is dirt! I wonder if Patena turns out to be a stinker if they’ll get reinvested in SB in the Derby?
WG - snicker. Ok, done snickering at you for agreeing with Iavarone. Any conversation about what a horse’s next move should be here at GbG assumes doing what’s best for the horse. Only time will tell if she came out of the race ok, both physically and mentally. I don’t doubt that she was physically fit, but it looked to me like she didn’t get focused until she lost her stride and had to pour it on. Then again, I’m no horse woman.
WG, part 2 - ha ha!
“…But what do you think? Do you agree with Iavarone’s oversimplified (whoops, sorry!) assessment that she could “barely beat the girls” or do think she’s shown she can still get the job done even under adverse circumstances?”
*******
Can I answer “both?” Her win was courageous, gutsy, and seemingly against all odds from the trip she had.
That being said, I think what his (Iavarone’s) comment really comes down to is whether it’s worth pushing her into a match with The Grapefruit and Pioneer?
Part of this is also the domino effect of how gifted I Want Revenge looked in the Gotham. I think that inflated the value of the California colts instantly. Primarily The Pamplemousse and POTN, but also to a smaller extent that of Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, and Take the Points.
Strong year for CA colts. She’s a ridiculously talented filly in her own right. One that could give them a run for their money on her best stuff.
Here’s something I’ve been thinking about. Why not ship her east for the KY Oaks? That would be a tremendously flattering win, and would show versatility a la Zenyatta last year in the Apple Blossom. I think that goal might be more achievable as well.
Rather than get Derby fever, send her east to win the KY Oaks, then come back and win the Preakness or the Belmont. Both of those races give you a better chance at victory due to the smaller fields.
“Patience, grasshopper.’ :-)
Just something to consider. I think we all get Derby fever though and forget sometimes that patience can be a virtue.
Kevin - you’re dead on that I Want Revenge’s win has inflated the west coasters, but I think artificially. I almost look at I Want Revenge as two different colts, his performance on dirt yesterday doesn’t have any bearing on how P-mousse, Papa Clem or PoN will do on dirt OR that they’re better than they looked on synth. at least not to me. however, I think Jessica’s point about running styles is well taken.
I like o_crunk’s suggestion the best, send her to the Fantasy to find out about dirt first. If she doesn’t take to dirt the Oaks is out too!
Dana and o_crunk,
Why gamble on the Fantasy, a G.2, to find out if she handles dirt? Send her to the Ashland, a G.1, over Polytrack she’s already a G.1 winner (Dmr Debutante). If she wins exceptionally, try the colts and dirt in the KY Derby. If she’s unimpressive winning or runs 2nd/3rd in the Ashland, send her to the Oaks.
She won’t being running against the boys on April 4th:
“…a performance that her connections have deemed insufficient to continue on the road to the May 2 Kentucky Derby. So, unless something dramatically different were to unfold in the next two months, Stardom Bound will continue to race against fillies.”
http://www.drf.com/news/article/102147.html
AmCap - I guess I don’t see it as a gamble, she’s already got 5 G1 wins on synthetic. If it were me I’d rather find out if she can handle dirt than rack up another G1 on synthetic. In fact, it she doesn’t win on dirt it’s not as damaging as if she doesn’t win on synth. The dirt question gets answered and you have a better idea how to decide whether or not to go the Derby or Oaks.
CP - I saw that and am writing a post right now! Guess I need a new poll too. Darn!