Yes, But So Soon?
Just like the holiday lights that went up in my neighborhood a week and a half before Halloween, it seems as though the Derby hype has gotten under way, thus far this year in the form of American Lion. Almost all of the coverage of Hollywood Prevue has been focused almost exclusively on the winner, American Lion, while noticeably overlooking the second the place finisher Get My Fix. Was I watching the same race?
Sure, American Lion handled the class jump, but did he really tame his foes? All of the articles do a good job of mentioning that he was a bit green/unfocused and that there’s time (before the Derby!) to get those issues ironed out, but isn’t it a little early to put all your eggs in one basket? I thought Get My Fix ran a much better race.
Get My Fix didn’t look green at all biding his time at the back of the back and then closing aggressively at the end. Why not ask Joe Talamo what he thought of the effort? I did! Although I doubt he’ll answer me… but if he does I’ll let you know!
But back to my point, I don’t mind the beginning of some Derby coverage at this time of the year. In fact, I think this is the first year where I’ve really started to pay attention to the Juvies with an eye towards next year. Along the same lines Davidowitz has a good DRF+ post on his end of the year observations about the current crop of 2yos. But if you read the news coverage of the Hollywood Prevue without watching race, you might get the impression that American Lion’s effort was more impressive than it really was… or at least than it seemed to me. Solid? Yes. Promising? Sure. Best in the race? Not in my opinion.
It could also be that American Lion is by Tiznow and Get My Fix is by Posse, even I know that means that Get My Fix is less likely to get the classic distance, or depending on how you look at it, be a “failed router” (aka sprinter/miler). And let’s not overlook American Lion’s maiden race at Keeneland, which was impressive, but how have the rest of them come out of that race? Oh, and Eoin Harty does seem to do well with a Tiznow from Winstar. But does the coverage have read like a Winstar press release?
In the end American Lion could turn out be the better horse, only time will tell. And only time will tell if Get My Fix can stretch out or not. If he doesn’t it wouldn’t be so horrible to have another Kodiak Kowboy to look forward to! Regardless of whether he’s “distance challenged” or not, and regardless of whether he ends up on the Derby trail, I’m looking forward to Get My Fix’s next out. If nothing else he’ll certainly be a better value than American Lion!
Posted by dana on Nov 23 2009
Filed Under: Hype, YouTube, 2009, Joe Talamo, Eoin Harty, Steve Davidowitz, 2yo, Derby Trail, Race Replay, Hollywood Park, Media, Racing
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You are right on about the Hollywood Prevue—Get My Fix closed more impressively. But, hey, let people overhype American Lion! More value for the rest of us who don’t buy into it. And until a 2yo (or 3yo) wins on dirt, I can’t consider him/her a serious Derby contender. Remember all the hype with Colonel John, and then Pioneerofthenile?
If you’re serious about beginning to lookout for Derby/Oaks horses, don’t miss the Stars of Tomorrow II card at Churchill on Saturday—12 races, all for 2-year-olds, including the G2 Golden Rod (won last year by Rachel Alexandra) and G2 KY Jockey Club. I think the post positions will be drawn on Wednesday, but here’s the nominated horses’ pps:
http://www.churchilldowns.com/sites/churchilldowns.com/files/Ky%20Jockey%20Club%20pps_0.pdf
http://www.churchilldowns.com/sites/churchilldowns.com/files/Golden%20Rod%20pps.pdf
we’re only six months away from the first saturday in May!
American Lion didn’t quite live up to the hype making the switch from Polytrack to CushionTrack (which is now increasing in dirt content due to the manufacturer going out of business).
The California two year olds and (three year olds of next year) will be bucking a trend that I pointed out earlier this year in my space. In short, the winners out in California are the “wrong type” of horses to race in Louisville.
That is partly because they’re racing on a “poly-turf” main track at Santa Anita and partly because the switches in training tracks cause various types of injuries before the big dance comes up.
What will happen in 2010?
If there is more futility in the Triple Crown the cries for a modernized dirt track will get louder and louder out in California.
I am one of the owners of Get My Fix. Talamo loved him and said he had a ton of horse… Brian has liked him from day one always saying that he was a router and could not wait to get him on the dirt. We are taking our time with him because we have an ultimate goal. You will see him in the Futurity Cash Call if all goes well. He will adore the added distance and should run a big race.. We are not so interested in seeing him run his best race but want him to improve off the last one. He has improved on sheet numbers in every race that he has run and last out ran an 8.25.. We would love to see a number of 6.75 to 7.50.. Baffert’s horse is the real thing but has had a pretty tough campaign and these are 2 year olds we are talking about! You should get some value next Saturday and hopefully he will reward us all…. If horses could only talk! The TVG guys all bashed the horse before the Prevue and had nothing good to say about him after! Only time will tell if they were right or just another Handicapper with an opinion. Good Luck Alex
Thanks so much for dropping by Alex! Best of luck with Get My Fix, clearly I was impressed. He looked to me like he could get more distance as well… looking forward to seeing what you’ve got there!
Go, Alex!
i agree totally with observation that sires of horses are hidden bias that can influence how we interpret a race. it’s one thing to factor in that knoweledge before a race when handicapping but the trick is not to give it the same value or any actually when analysizing a race later. afterall, sire’s are only half the story why would the race distance, class etc of the dam not be factored into the analysis. isn’t that why dosage was relegated to the historical dustbin of race analysis? if you want to factor in sire influences then you must do the same for the dam, anything less is intellectually lazy and will distort the analysis.
Always enjoy your observations.
stanley
Thanks for the kind words Stanley! My lack of pedigree knowledge can come in handy! I tried to find out about Get My Fix’s dam but it doesn’t look like her offspring have done that much. Regardless, I like what I saw and am looking forward to seeing more!