After yesterday’s bloodbath I’ve rebounded a little today picking Sheryl’s Melody. I also liked winner Zimmer but played him with the incorrectly named Win It. So far, with the exception of Zimmer (with Bo-rail aboard), winners have been a little wide on the track but when asked about no one is saying it’s because the rail is dead. Needless to say I’ll be keeping an eye on it. Also interesting is that it’s been all front runners and stalkers so far… closers haven’t been able to get there yet.
With no dime supers I feel a little bit like my super power (har har) has been stripped away. I was on a super streak at Gulfstream a few weeks that put me considerably up for the year. Not something I get to say often! If things keep heading in the same direction that won’t be the case by the end of the day… such is life!
And feast your eyes on the genius of Blind Luck and Evening Jewel… what a race:
Best of luck to everyone today, and let’s hope everyone stays safe. Don’t forget to check those Kentucky Derby Odds!
Caracortado, making them say hello to his little friend (creepy_coyote)
My apologies for the tumbleweeds around here, all my focus has been on producing the weekly Derby Prep Alert and working on the new Hello Race Fans site, set to launch mid-march. Both are going well! Make sure you join our Road to the Roses league… we’ll have prizes of some sort, to be announced later. (League Identifier: 2284973203 / Activation Code: 2579942896).
But in the meantime there are Derby contenders being searched, and traffic to be had… so here we go!
The only 3-year-old I have an official crush on so far is Tiffany Lass/Silverbulletday winner Jody Slew. Partially because I loved that the owners thought they had a turf horse and entered her in the Tiffany Lass just to keep her fit, only to have her surprise the hell out of them and win, but also because she shares a sire with one of my all time favorites, Lava Man. I’ve also got my fingers crossed that we’ll see her on synthetics at some point as there’s a good chance that she could become a graded stakes Omnisurface Star!
Look her in the Silverbulletday, all heart!
Whoops, sorry… on to the 2010 Kentucky Derby contenders!
I know everyone’s gone mad for Eskendereya, and I was impressed too, but given that there are plenty of front runners who have already proven that they can duel after setting decent fractions, I’ll take a wait and see approach to the flirty Alexandrian dance.
The wait and see approach has worked out well for me with Buddy’s Saint. You may remember that I wasn’t as jazzed as some about his Remsen and I stand my ground. Yes he had rough trip and shut down early, but I would preferred to see him show at least a little something. Again, waiting and seeing.
In the “jazzed about” column I have Rule, who has proven that not only he can duel in the lane, but he can do it while pressured on the front end for the entire race… twice! I know there are some who don’t think much of either Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes or the Sam F. Davis for that matter, but I like what I’ve seen so far… a lot. He’s the closest thing I have going to a crush for the Derby.
Maximus Ruler is another I like but I’m a bit concerned that he had to miss the Risen Star. If all goes well he’ll go back to work this week and target the Louisiana Derby. Fingers crossed for him that all will go well.
I have no opinion of Looking at Lucky yet, but of the Californians I do really like Caracortado, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy. Of the three I like Scarface the best (Caracortado), he was visually impressive in the Robert B. Lewis, looking like an old pro stalking the pace and pouncing with authority.
Conveyance took to dirt rather nicely and looked a bit more mature than last out when he was gawking at the stands down the lane. Can he sustain that speed going longer, if Dublin (who I also like!) would have gotten to him could he have repelled his bid? All this and more I’m not sure of, but I like what I see!
With so many front-running contenders so far this year, it makes me wonder if Ron the Greek has more of a shot than his Risen Star sixth place finish indicates. Had he had a decent pace to run at could he have repeated his LeComte performance? I’m reserving judgment on him as well. I also count Tempted to Tapit as a horse of interest. I thought he was going to be able to catch Discreetly Mine (as did my losing wager on him), perhaps there will be some gate works in his future.
And last but not least, there’s Blind Luck… who I also have a crush on! (and didn’t remember until just now). My guess is that her performance in the Santa Anita Oaks will determine if she tries the Derby trail or not. Either way, I like!
I hope to be back with some regularity after the HRF launch in a few weeks…
Is he being a persnickety rich guy or pointing out a genuine inequity in a purse structure that favors breeding your talented 3yos versus campaigning them at 4? He’s probably being a persnickety rich guy (not that I care, see points 1-3), but this also raises an interesting point.
Who among us has not bemoaned the retirement of a talented 3yo colt bound for the shed? Who among us doesn’t want to see our “stars” (because 3yo colts are the only ones marketed to a mainstream audience) race longer?
Let’s face it, there’s no financial incentive for owners to return their talented 3yo to the track and the purse difference between the $1M Travers or $1M Pennsylvania Derby vs the $500k Woodward couldn’t be a better example.
Consider this: on the same weekend that Big Brown contested the $2 million Kentucky Derby, the richest race at Churchill for four year-olds was the $500,000 Turf Classic.
At Pimlico, older males ran in the $250,000 Pimlico Special while Big Brown was cleaning up in the $1 million Preakness.
And in New York, while Big Brown tries to secure the Triple Crown in the $1 million Belmont, older males will tussle on the turf in the $400,000 Manhattan.
In other words, while Big Brown was running for $4 million in purses, your older horse — call him Old Grey — topped out at $1,150,000. Old Grey was running for less than 30 percent of the purses available to Big Brown.
While JJ is probably playing a little poker to see if he can get NYRA to sweeten the pot, he inadvertently highlights systemic measures in place to support the “bred to be a stallion” phenomena. Now there’s something to complain about!
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