Posts about Biases
 

Ladies, Drugs and Players

No, that was not my Saturday night, it’s the various topics I’ve been reading about this morning!

Steve Klein has a nice piece at DRF about Mike Maloney, a professional horseplayer, entitled “Pro’s advice: Don’t quit your day job” (DRF+). Before my weekend in the handicapping torture chamber you could have counted me in for definitely wanting to go pro some day. Currently I can be counted as a solid “perhaps”.

One of the great suggestions Maloney shares is that anyone serious about being a player should spend time on the backstretch to get a better understanding of what goes on and how the horseman (and women) think.

“What I learned pretty quickly, and I wasn’t a great handicapper at that time, is that I knew more about a horse’s chances of winning than the guy who saddled him in most cases,” Maloney explained. “Not that they weren’t good horsemen, but it is a rarity to find a combination horseman and handicapper. Bobby Frankel and John Langemeier are a couple of exceptions that come to mind, but it is a real rarity to find one.”

I know I always look to see who a jock chose in a race, but you never know what the circumstances are… could be the jock or the agent thinks they have the best chance on the horse or it could be out of loyalty.

He also goes on to talk about track bias.

“Track bias is a very valuable tool that is underused,” Maloney said. “Some players not only don’t understand it, some of them don’t believe in it. I think it’s very important to handicap the first two races of the day very thoroughly.”

The first two races might be all Maloney needs to get a handle on what the track bias is on a given day. If not, he uses the rest of the first half of the card to figure it out. Then he makes more serious bets later in the day.

I’m a fan of biases and try to make use of them whenever possible (meaning, when I notice them). I did pretty well on last years Derby card noticing that both Bejarano and the 7th post position were hot (this is how I settled on Hysterical Lady in the Humana Distaff and decided to box Street Sense (#7) with my pick Hard Spun).

Over at The Rail Jim Squires has a kick ass piece on the pervasive use of legal steroids and how perhaps it may be coming to an end. Let’s hope so!

It’s an eye opening piece and full of things I never put together, such as:

The risk of injury and subsequent financial loss is always given as a reason why owners are in such a hurry to retire famous horses whose continued presence in competition until they fully mature at 5 and 6 years old would clearly create fan following and enhance the sport’s popularity. But insiders know that the longer horses are on a steroid regimen, the more likely they are to be permanently damaged.

Wow. I never thought of that, but then I can’t say that I knew as much about steroid use prior to reading this piece… it makes perfect sense and one more big giant reason to ban steroids.

Last, and certainly not least, one of my esteemed TBA colleagues makes some excellent points about how backwards American racing is regarding frequency of racing and segregation of fillies and colts. She also lays out the points of why Eight Belles should run in the Derby, and I have to say that I agree.

In her post Val is using Australian racing as the example of how fillies and colts are frequently run together without much fanfare or discussion… it’s just normal. I don’t know anything about Australian culture, except that I suspect they’re way more accepting of gambling, but I wonder if in general there’s less sexism or if they just don’t apply it to animals?

Sexism is everywhere in racing, sometimes glaringly visible, sometimes not so visible but still there. In his post Waiting on Eight Belles, Alex Brown says “It is debatable whether it is a good idea to run a filly in the Derby, but there is no denying they can win the race”. In a discussion going over at the Facebook Derby group one poster states (copied and pasted as is):

The 2 fillies dont need to run in the damn derby. yea they have the graded earnings but against other fillies they are going to take away spots from 2-3 horses that deserve a shot at a run for the roses. Just cuz rags won last year everyone thinks they can beat the boys know. Ony reason RTR won the Belmont b/c all the boys were tired from the triple crown races

Mind you, many of the comments state are pro fillies so perhaps slowly we’ll get there (thanks to young the people).

But it’s not only “should a filly run with the boys”, it’s also a sad and telling under representation of women in visible positions throughout the industry. There’s one female staff blogger at The Rail and all the personal blogs listed in the blogroll belong to men. DRF is woefully light on women and forget seeing a women included as a professional in handicapping seminars, just to name a few. And let’s not forget the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic shenanigans (sign the petition!!!).

Yet the TBA membership is about half women and I believe there’s a cite somewhere out there that more than half of the racing fan base is half women according to a NTRA survey, 52% of loyal horse racing fans are women [PDF] (thanks Jessica!).

It must be pointed out, however, that the TBA is not some utopian representation of a shiny happy future, there are certainly those who feel women have their place, but the point stands that it is a great representation of women in the sport.

Jessica at Railbird provides excellent insight on current events and compiles & crunches data with the best of them. She has a deep affinity for Google Docs!

Teresa at Brooklyn Backstretch covers historical angles of NY racing and beyond. She’s also quite a road tripper, filing reports on tracks around the country recording the history for all of us.

Superfecta keeps an eye on the current racing scene both here and abroad with a dose of history & breeding thrown in for good measure. She’s also an excellent photo editor!

Val at Foolish Pleasure also keeps an eye on current racing and with more of a focus on breeding. She also follows several notable claimers. Fav headline, “He Runs Like a Moron“.

Jen at Down the Stretch has been keeping an eye on the Derby Trail but follows racing throughout the year… she’s an astute handicapper.

Fran of the Jurga Report and Hoof Care is a hoof care specialist providing insight, research and information on all things hoof.

Jen of Thoroughblog is the morning line odds maker at Woodbine and an extremely active blogger in chronicling the Canadian racing scene, including when those excellent Canadians come down here and kick our butts!

Sue at Post Parade weaves (hilarious) stories of everyday life into racing, with occasional visits to Lone Star Park, which is open right now!

Quinella Queen at Turf Luck is our resident librarian who covers Mountaineer and all things books including Breeders’ Cups by way of the card catalog!

And Nellie of The Last Filly assures us she’s getting ready to come back off a long break… look for her to discuss breeding, racing, and retirements among other things.

Mind you, the men of the TBA are pretty great too but so far it’s only the men who are high profile guest bloggers anywhere… why is that?

Posted by dana on Apr 27 2008    
Filed Under: Sportsmanship, Internet, 2008, TBA, Drugs, Derby Trail, Breeders' Cup, Biases, Racing

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Finally…

Rick Violette gets his first win of the meet in the second at Belmont with a wire to wire romp by Globalization (I’m still alive in the early pick 4!). I was starting to wonder when he’d get a win. My note on Globalization was that he had a jock change + his last work was an endurance builder… I thought both were encouraging.

On a bias note, both wins so far were from the 5th post position and wire to wire.

Posted by dana on Sep 30 2007    
Filed Under: Richard Violette, 2007, Biases, Racing

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Just a Few More Thoughts…

and then I’m moving on.

On thing that’s made me feel somewhat better about not covering my bets with the winning combo is that of all the experts and bloggers I read, no one predicted the winning combo (although I still should have done a $20 tri box with the three favs, dammit!).

As I’ve noted before, I’m a big fan of biases and I watch them closely. On the day before the Preakness and day of, front runners and stalkers were favored to closers. Only one closer had won the day before, and with the exception of the 4 & 5th races that I didn’t see (because I was in transit to the “office”) front runners and stalkers were winning. Interesting to note because biases, like all other handicapping tools, are not to be taken as the only factor… and as most will tell you, a good horse can overcome anything.

I was re-reading a few of my posts because I was thinking about things I wanted to see about a few of the horses before I became a believer.

From my Derby Futures Wagers post:

“The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?”

Answered: Yes!

I still want to see Street Sense go 3 or 4 wide and weave in and out of horses.

Here’s a gripe… the Pimlico simulcast didn’t have split screen so you couldn’t see what the back of the pack was doing. This is one of most helpful things ever, I felt like I didn’t know what was going on in the race because it was just focused on the front runners. Is this a Magna entertainment thing? I’ll have to look at this more closely. It’s one thing for NBC to not have the split screen, but an OTB simulcast? That’s ridiculous!

Now for the moving on part… rematch! The distance in the Belmont will be very interesting. Swifty thinks Hard Spun won’t run, and he’s probably right. A few interesting additions are going to be Tiago, Imawildandcrazyguy and hopefully Rags to Riches! Tiago & Imawildandcrazyguy will do much better at that distance for sure. I would love to see Rags to Riches win the Belmont!!

Posted by dana on May 20 2007    
Filed Under: 2007, Biases, Handicapping, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, Pimlico, Triple Crown, Tiago, Wagering, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Hard Spun, Street Sense, Rags to Riches, Curlin, Racing

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Happy Preakness Day!

I’m still not entirely sure how I’m going to do my final bets, I always decide in the last minutes before the race… it really depends on the odds plus I’ll be looking for biases thru the day.

Definite Bets:
Hard Spun to win

Likely Additional Bets:
Hard Spun - Culin Box
Hard Spun - Circular Quay Box
Hard Spun - Exchanger Straight Exacta
Hard Spun - Flying First Class Straight Exacta

My thoughts are (clearly) that Hard Spun can win it so I’ll put a sizable bet there. I also think the Derby was probably good for Curlin. I’m looking for him to sit closer to the pace and have a better shot this time.

As for Circular Quay, he was coming off a lay off into the Derby and stands to be improved + less traffic will be better for his closing style. Yesterday at Pimilco the 3rd post position was heavily favored as were stalkers. This is Circular Quay’s post position.

As for Flying First Class & Xchanger… both have early speed and my guess is that Hard Spun will rate right behind them. What if Curlin or Street Sense get stuck and can’t get up?

As for Street Sense, my same theory applies… when I see him go around horses to win, I’ll bet him at this price (or if there’s a strong bias like in the Derby).

Speaking of biases, as of right now, Ramon Dominquez has won the first two races at Pimlico and both were stalkers. He’s riding Xchanger today. Also, both winners were on outside post postions (10 & 9).

Good Luck to All!!

Posted by dana on May 19 2007    
Filed Under: Circular Quay, Biases, 2007, Pimlico, Xchanger, Handicapping, Triple Crown, Wagering, Wooo!, Hard Spun, Street Sense, Curlin, Racing

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Derby Re-cap & Thoughts

I have to hand it to Swifty, he really called how the race would unfold in his pre-race post.

My two favs where No Biz & Hard Spun and I anchored my race day strategy around them. It was really hard for me to decide if I liked one more than the other, but I was a little concered about No Biz having the extra gears needed to really pull away and win it based his last race in the Wood, while in my mind Hard Spun had done just that in that Lane’s End.

I had a decent amount of money and good coverage of the field in my futures wagers, so I wanted to wait and see the horses and the odds before I made my final decisions.

I was surprised that in that hour before the race when the money was really coming in that the odds really didn’t change that much… I suppose it’s because folks who are derby bettors were really using the odds as a guideline and therefore not shifting odds too much. Another suprise was that we really didn’t get to see the horses gallops so much in the parade, so that didn’t help at all… but I had actually made up my mind before this point anyway.

I’m a big fan of track biases… post postions, jockey, trainer and racing style. Before I’m gonna spend a day at the track (either virtually or literally) I will grab the Track Chart for the previous day and put the Surface, Post Position, Jockey, Running Style this Race, Margin of Win, Trainer and Notes in a spreadsheet. I use this to see if there are any patterns setting up at the track that I can use to my advantage. For the derby, I did this for the four days prior to the Derby, but brought a blank one with me to my “office” (OTB restaurant) and filled in as the day went on.

Post position number 7 was hot as the track dried out, there 2 wins in a row on the 2 dirt races prior to the derby (and one on the turf race right before the derby, which is more coincidental than anything). Street Sense had the 7th postion. In my futures wagers post I noted my concern about Street Sense needing a perfect trip to really get the job done, and this bias made me think he stood a really good chance of getting a perfect trip.

Also going on that day was that Rafael Bejarano had won 4 races already! He was riding Dominican in the Derby and while probably a product of his preference for polytrack, he had beaten Street Sense in the Blue Grass a few weeks ago. I had Dominican in my futures and he had a crappy post position but 4 wins was nothing to sneeze at.

So, here’s what I did, and I had no idea what I was going to end up doing when I left my apartment in the morning (and really not until about 8th race on the card).

$10 Exacta Box of Street Sense with Dominican, No Biz and Hard Spun
$60 total, payed $477 (after OTB cut)

$20 to Win on No Biz & Hard Spun

$6 Across the Board on Dominican - $18 Total.

I also was up $72 on the day going into the race so I ended up being up $400 on the day. There were some really nice races on the under card… loved the Humana Distaff, not only because I had Hysterical Lady (thanks to her 7th post position AND having Bejarano as the jock), but because there were some really talented fillies and mares in that race! And, speaking of fillies and mares, it’s too bad Dawn After Dawn got so stuck in traffic in the Oaks, there’s no way should could have caught Rags to Riches, but she definitely could have showed and maybe could have placed. Did I mention that I LOVE horse racing?

Posted by dana on May 06 2007    
Filed Under: Biases, Rafael Bejarano, Dominican, Hysterical Lady, Dawn After Dawn, Kentucky Derby, 2007, Triple Crown, Derby Trail, Hard Spun, Wagering, Wooo!, Street Sense, Curlin, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Rags to Riches, Racing

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