Let’s not kid ourselves, in some cases we prep as much as the Derby contenders do. Don’t believe me? Then feast your eyes on these two weeny-tastic derby spreadsheets:
Caracortado, making them say hello to his little friend (creepy_coyote)
My apologies for the tumbleweeds around here, all my focus has been on producing the weekly Derby Prep Alert and working on the new Hello Race Fans site, set to launch mid-march. Both are going well! Make sure you join our Road to the Roses league… we’ll have prizes of some sort, to be announced later. (League Identifier: 2284973203 / Activation Code: 2579942896).
But in the meantime there are Derby contenders being searched, and traffic to be had… so here we go!
The only 3-year-old I have an official crush on so far is Tiffany Lass/Silverbulletday winner Jody Slew. Partially because I loved that the owners thought they had a turf horse and entered her in the Tiffany Lass just to keep her fit, only to have her surprise the hell out of them and win, but also because she shares a sire with one of my all time favorites, Lava Man. I’ve also got my fingers crossed that we’ll see her on synthetics at some point as there’s a good chance that she could become a graded stakes Omnisurface Star!
Look her in the Silverbulletday, all heart!
Whoops, sorry… on to the 2010 Kentucky Derby contenders!
I know everyone’s gone mad for Eskendereya, and I was impressed too, but given that there are plenty of front runners who have already proven that they can duel after setting decent fractions, I’ll take a wait and see approach to the flirty Alexandrian dance.
The wait and see approach has worked out well for me with Buddy’s Saint. You may remember that I wasn’t as jazzed as some about his Remsen and I stand my ground. Yes he had rough trip and shut down early, but I would preferred to see him show at least a little something. Again, waiting and seeing.
In the “jazzed about” column I have Rule, who has proven that not only he can duel in the lane, but he can do it while pressured on the front end for the entire race… twice! I know there are some who don’t think much of either Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes or the Sam F. Davis for that matter, but I like what I’ve seen so far… a lot. He’s the closest thing I have going to a crush for the Derby.
Maximus Ruler is another I like but I’m a bit concerned that he had to miss the Risen Star. If all goes well he’ll go back to work this week and target the Louisiana Derby. Fingers crossed for him that all will go well.
I have no opinion of Looking at Lucky yet, but of the Californians I do really like Caracortado, Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy. Of the three I like Scarface the best (Caracortado), he was visually impressive in the Robert B. Lewis, looking like an old pro stalking the pace and pouncing with authority.
Conveyance took to dirt rather nicely and looked a bit more mature than last out when he was gawking at the stands down the lane. Can he sustain that speed going longer, if Dublin (who I also like!) would have gotten to him could he have repelled his bid? All this and more I’m not sure of, but I like what I see!
With so many front-running contenders so far this year, it makes me wonder if Ron the Greek has more of a shot than his Risen Star sixth place finish indicates. Had he had a decent pace to run at could he have repeated his LeComte performance? I’m reserving judgment on him as well. I also count Tempted to Tapit as a horse of interest. I thought he was going to be able to catch Discreetly Mine (as did my losing wager on him), perhaps there will be some gate works in his future.
And last but not least, there’s Blind Luck… who I also have a crush on! (and didn’t remember until just now). My guess is that her performance in the Santa Anita Oaks will determine if she tries the Derby trail or not. Either way, I like!
I hope to be back with some regularity after the HRF launch in a few weeks…
Buddy’s Saint, potential star and confirmed New York hype horse! (Melissa Wirth)
While it was a great long weekend of racing of every kind, I decided to pay more attention to 2yo racing than normal. Thanks to Val of Foolish Pleasure / Fillies First for alerting me to the Stars of Tomorrow card on closing day of Churchill, there were definitely some notable performances there.
In my opinion it’s too early to hop on any bandwagons for Kentucky Derby 2010 but it’s never to soon to put a horse in your watch list! Here’s what caught my eye this weekend generally speaking, not necessarily just from a Derby perspective.
Carrington Village - Debut Winner at Churchill 11/26th, 8th race:
This gets my vote for most impressive effort overall and most impressive win. He pulls an Evening Attire out of the gate (#5), and remains unhurried down the backstretch. Coming very wide into the stretch he made up ground quickly and once he cleared the leaders Desormeaux stopped asking and he kept right on going. I’m looking forward to seeing what this McPeek trainee does next out.
Down with Dixie - 3rd in a MSW at Churchill on 11/28th, 7th race:
Watch gate 11, Down with Dixie stumbles and then gets squeezed out. He drops in at the back of the pack and you’ll see him start his run on the outside going into the far turn (white hat). Fly Down’s effort should be noted too, but I thought Down with Dixie was the more impressive. However, both showed that they can deal with traffic and that they have heart. While that was Down With Dixie’s 5th start it’s only his 2nd start on dirt, a surface he definitely seems to like more than than synth. It was Fly Down’s second start and first time with blinkers.
Sassy Image - Golden Rod at Churchill
Sassy Image sat off a solid pace and came wide to duel with a game Decelerator but had enough left to kick at the end and look great doing it. She’s owned by Dale Roman’s brother, who was advised by Roman’s precocious son Jake to shot a with her.
Super Saver - Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill
If it wasn’t for Williams Kitten putting in a decent run himself you’d think the rest of the field was just falling off but Super Saver, who was getting leg weary going into the stretch, kicked again after setting solid fractions. I think this Winstar colt’s win was more impressive than American’s Lion Hollywood Prevue.
Buddy’s Saint - Remsen at Aqueduct
While Buddy’s Saint was nothing to sneeze at, I think Super Saver’s performance was more impressive. Buddy’s Saint sat behind a dawdling pace and was the beneficiary of a front end hook up between Homeboykris (who should definitely learn to rate!) and Citrus Kid. Yes, Buddy’s Saint did it insanely easily, but I’d like to see him overcome adversity before I get super jazzed… the good news is that there’s plenty of time for that!
Tizahit - Demoiselle at Aqueduct
Similar to Buddy’s Saint, Tizahit was the recipient of a very patient ride and a pace meltdown up front, this time courtesy of Oh Diane. What was more impressive about Tizahit’s win was 1) the pace was faster than in the Remsen and 2) she held off closing rivals in Protesting and Fuzzy Britches. And not to pick too much on American Lion but in my opinion Tizahit was the more impressive Tiznow offspring of the two of them this time out.
It was also interesting to note the difference in coverage between Super Saver and Buddy’s Saint. I thought the Super Saver article at DRF seemed almost too understated compared to the Buddy’s Saint article which was lavishly entitled “Buddy’s Saint sure looks like a Derby Contender”. Within the same article the sub-head for Tizahit was “Tizahit gets dream trip”… and Buddy’s Saint didn’t? It’s interesting to note the difference in reporting both between reporters and even between very similar races by the same reporter.
Update: Here’s another you can file under ‘it’s only just begun’, The Saint Makes a Heavenly Statement. I’d have to do a little research before I named what I thought was the best performance by 2yo male all year but I’d take Carrington Village’s debut win of the ones I have listed here!
The Demoiselle was slow-early/fast-late while the Remsen was the reverse. Buddy’s Saint was not under pressure winning the Remsen but any enthusiasm for his 4 3/4-length victory has to be tempered by his unimpressive final furlong of 13.49 and final three-eighths in about 39.50.
Just like the holiday lights that went up in my neighborhood a week and a half before Halloween, it seems as though the Derby hype has gotten under way, thus far this year in the form of American Lion. Almost all of the coverage of Hollywood Prevue has been focused almost exclusively on the winner, American Lion, while noticeably overlooking the second the place finisher Get My Fix. Was I watching the same race?
Sure, American Lionhandled the class jump, but did he really tame his foes? All of the articles do a good job of mentioning that he was a bit green/unfocused and that there’s time (before the Derby!) to get those issues ironed out, but isn’t it a little early to put all your eggs in one basket? I thought Get My Fix ran a much better race.
Get My Fix didn’t look green at all biding his time at the back of the back and then closing aggressively at the end. Why not ask Joe Talamo what he thought of the effort? I did! Although I doubt he’ll answer me… but if he does I’ll let you know!
But back to my point, I don’t mind the beginning of some Derby coverage at this time of the year. In fact, I think this is the first year where I’ve really started to pay attention to the Juvies with an eye towards next year. Along the same lines Davidowitz has a good DRF+ post on his end of the year observations about the current crop of 2yos. But if you read the news coverage of the Hollywood Prevue without watching race, you might get the impression that American Lion’s effort was more impressive than it really was… or at least than it seemed to me. Solid? Yes. Promising? Sure. Best in the race? Not in my opinion.
It could also be that American Lion is by Tiznow and Get My Fix is by Posse, even I know that means that Get My Fix is less likely to get the classic distance, or depending on how you look at it, be a “failed router” (aka sprinter/miler). And let’s not overlook American Lion’smaiden race at Keeneland, which was impressive, but how have the rest of them come out of that race? Oh, and Eoin Harty does seem to do well with a Tiznow from Winstar. But does the coverage have read like a Winstar press release?
In the end American Lion could turn out be the better horse, only time will tell. And only time will tell if Get My Fix can stretch out or not. If he doesn’t it wouldn’t be so horrible to have another Kodiak Kowboy to look forward to! Regardless of whether he’s “distance challenged” or not, and regardless of whether he ends up on the Derby trail, I’m looking forward to Get My Fix’s next out. If nothing else he’ll certainly be a better value than American Lion!
Mine That Bird, pulling away from the stallions (Jamie Newell)
I’m not a big believer in the “racing gods”. However, if there are racing gods, I have to think they had something special in mind for the likes of the Dolphus Morrisons of the game when a gelding who fetched a mere $9,500 at Keeneland’s yearling auction won the Stallion Derby.
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