Posts about Handicapping
 

So Much For That

I had fully intended to play the Stephen Foster card at Churchill today. I assumed I would be able to do so by using Twinspires. Not the case. I then moved on to my YouBet account. Again, no luck.

Truth be told it’s probably for the best, I haven’t exactly been on fire at the windows. The good news is that I can watch the card using the pretty snazzy beta of Twinspires TV (I wish their race replays used the same interface, which would make them larger and easier to see). The other bit of good luck is that I’ll be able to watch the Stephen Foster on the aforementioned Channel 71 as the race day will be over at Belmont.

Naturally I didn’t discover this until I had gotten pretty far into my handicapping. I was uninspired by the 6th (Hysterical Lady just crushed) but here are my thoughts on the Regret and Northern Dancer.

In the Regret I’m not convinced by Pure Clan as the favorite. CJ’s Leelee, Zee Zee and Magical Theater is where I would be looking and given the current odds I might focus on Magical Theater.

As for the Northern Dancer, we all know I love Pyro and the pace looks to be right up his alley. I’m bummed that Tiz Now Tiz Then scratched as I think he might have helped to tire out Recapturetheglory. That being said, if I had access to some wagering I would probably take a shot with Pyro over Unbridled Vicar. Unbridled Vicar had a nice confidence builder last out and can close off a slow pace. I’m not convinced Visionaire and Texas Wildcatter will like the pace.

Ok, they’re loading in the gate for the Regret. Good luck to all!

Update: my inability to access wagering is already working out for the best as Pure Clan just won the Regret! CJ’s Lee Lee and Zee Zee placed and showed respectively.

Posted by dana on Jun 14 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Twinspires, Picks, Signal Wars, Churchill Downs, Technology, Handicapping, OTB, Simulcasting, Pyro, Racing

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A Long Hot End


Big Brown is a no show for his date with destiny (Sarah K. Andrew)

What a day, nothing like last year… well, maybe a little something, but I’ll get to that.

Never in my life did I drink so little liquid on such a hot day. The well reported on bathroom situation started not too long after I arrived so thankfully I hadn’t totally tanked up on water yet.

One of the many bright spots was that my pals the Hennegan Brothers generously comped me a ticket to Garden Terrace for my work with them on their site for The First Saturday in May (buy the DVD!). The benefits of their generosity were that 1) it was great to meet and hang with their friends 2) I think it was the only area with air conditioning and 3) for the most part the bathrooms were working and the lines were NOTHING like downstairs.

That’s not to say that bathroom weren’t disgusting, they were, in more ways that one. At one point the toilets were so backed up that I was hard pressed to recall a more outhouse like experience in such a fancy context. Teresa has a great account of the day and my comment sums up my bathroom experience in the Garden Terrace (so I won’t repeat it here).

Another bright spot was getting to meet a lot of the TBA-ers in person! I hang with a couple of them regularly as we all live in the city and I had met Superfecta once before at last year’s BC but it was great to put faces to blogs and have at least an all too brief chance to chat with everyone. We should definitely plan some low-key non-event race days to hang out.

I had another abysmal day at the windows cashing no tickets. In fact the one race I called exactly was the only one I didn’t place any wagers on! I correctly called the Acorn as Zaftig, Indian Blessing and Game Face but since they all had really low odds I took a pass (although it kept me alive in the Pick 4 for one more race!). As Swifty and I recounted our respective days at the window I said “At least I called the order of the Acorn” and he replied “How many horses were in that field?” (note: he picked Game Face). I’ll take what I can get! In fact, seeing Zaftig power home was the most exciting part of the day for me.

As for the Big Brown one, the good news is that he’s ok AND he’ll stay in training. I’ve read plenty of interesting thoughts, conjectures and opinions this morning. There’s a lot of lively commenting going on over at The Rail that I found interesting and (so far) without unnecessary bashing. I found this comment in particular to be insightful on the potential combination of the post position, heat and steroid regiment cycle.

Other thoughts have surfaced around the ride itself. Was Desormeaux being lazy or taking the appropriate precautions? OR, deciding to ease him as opposed to have him come in 7th or so on his own?

I’ll take my fellow TBA-er’s word for it that Kent D has a history as more than one of them that I trust have expressed the opinion (and I’ll keep an eye out for myself in the meantime so I can form my own opinion). I go back and forth between feeling relieved that he probably did the right thing and that it was totally unsportsmanlike to throw in the towel if your horse throws a clunker.

We can never know and I can’t really fault him for being cautious, however the beginning of his ride reminded me of Gomez’s awful ride on Hard Spun in last year’s Belmont. Hard Spun was rank and Gomez fought him and kept him hard held through the race, not that I think Hard Spun would have won, but he certainly could have done a little better. (Note, watching last year’s Belmont made me feel a little better!).

As for the other entrants, I was as flabbergasted as anyone else about Da’Tara. I wouldn’t have been as surprised by Anak Nakal and I was really happy to see him and Ready’s Echo hit the board! They all looked tired as they lumbered down the stretch, the heat couldn’t have helped but Da’Tara really put them away!

As Swifty and discussed how we felt the race would unfold, we imagined Da’Tara would go right to the lead, BB would sit chilly not too far behind with Tale of ETAKI not too far behind. We thought about midway through the backstretch BB would come on and it would be over a la Secretariat, but not nearly as dramatic (please note, I AM not in any way comparing BB to Secretariat, just using the timing of how his run would unfold!).

As they neared the end of the backstretch Swifty said “they’re not doing what we thought” a couple of times as it was becoming clear that something was amiss. It was hard to tell what was going on coming into the stretch but the first time Swifty said that BB was being pulled up I thought he was joking, but then said it again. It was an incredibly nerve wracking several moments until we could see that he didn’t seem to be injured. As he cantered through the stretch there were several a-holes booing him. I yelled at the one closest to me to shut the F-up (and he did). People never cease to amaze me.

As Swifty and were making our last minute wager determinations, I was planning a super wheeling BB on top over Tale of ETAKI, Denis of Cork, Macho Again, Guadalcanal and I was going back and forth between Anak Nakal and Icabad Crane. Swifty decided to split the ticket with me and he settled on Icabad Crane.

You’ll notice the winning horse was nowhere in our mix, we both TOTALLY disregarded him. In fact, it seemed odd and a bit reckless to me that Zito entered him. As Teresa has pointed out about Zito, he likes to honor the history of the races by actually entering horses in them (now there’s a concept!), which is great and I totally applaud. But I inappropriately wrote Da’Tara off as a “there’s a classic race in New York and I’m entering it”. Well, let’s just say I’ve learned that lesson the hard way! Additionally, I think this a great time in my handicapping career to make the effort to learn more about breeding!

Fellow TBA-er and night owl semi-frequent poster Nellie has a great wrap-up with a lot of good points to ponder, most notably that what might be this year’s weak or at the very least inconsistent crop could turn out to be next year’s strong handicap division… let’s hope so! She also notes something that cheered me up too, that Mushka is back on the work tab!

On a final note, if I gave you my card yesterday (and you’re still reading) say hello, leave a comment! And please, PLEASE don’t judge my beloved Belmont on it’s backed up toilets and garbage mountains, come back when it’s a regular old Saturday… it’s one of the best places to spend an afternoon I can think of, and you won’t have to pee in the bushes, unless of course you want to!

Posted by dana on Jun 08 2008    
Filed Under: TBA, Mushka, Wrap Up, Nick Zito, Drugs, Sarah K. Andrew, Sportsmanship, Superfecta, Tale of Ekati, Anak Nakal, Big Brown, Indian Blessing, 2008, First Saturday in May, Hennegan Brothers, Belmont, Triple Crown, Fans, Gambling, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Handicapping, Belmont Stakes, 3yo, Pick 4, NYRA, Kent Desormeaux, Tom Durkin, Racing

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Off to a Date with Destiny


Post Time for the Belmont (~ RAYMOND)

Quickly, here are my picks for the card… I posted my win selections over at the TBA homepage along with the other TBA picks. I put a straight pick 6 ticket on those selections as well. No doubt Swifty and I will be playing some pick 4s and 6s together.

True North:

I’m going with Thor’s Echo returning to form and Benny the Bull regressing a bit. I also like Suave Jazz and a little bit of Council Member!

Picks: Thor’s Echo, Benny the Bull, Council Member
Just A Game:

I think Bayou’s Lassie will have the pace her way and takes them wire to wire, or Lady of Venice and/or Bit of Whimsy come on. I love Criminologist but don’t think it’s enough distance for her.

Picks: Bayou’s Lassie, Lady of Venice, Bit of Whimsy
Acorn:

Now that Dance Gal Dance is out, I think Indian Blessing will probably go wire to wire, but I still like Zaftig and Game Face.

Picks: Zaftig, Indian Blessing, Game Face
Manhattan:

What a field! I love both Shakis and Stream of Gold in here. Out of Control is a logical choice too, particularly since he stumbled in the stretch last out. Proudinsky looks dangerous as well as he does well off a freshening as does Better Talk Now winning on his return from an abysmal effort aboard last year. I think the pace is not going to be to Dancing Forever’s liking and I loved Pays to Dream’s last out but the turf was really soft as was the pace. I’ll probably play a little Stalingrad and Strike a Deal across the board too.

Picks: Shakis, Stream of Gold, Out of Control
Belmont Stakes:

Obviously I’m bummed about Casino Drive but I am looking forward to seeing what looks to be a Triple Crown. I’ll be wheeling BB over several in supers, most likely most if not all of Tale of Ekati, Denis of Cork, Macho Again, Anak Nakal, Guadalcanal and Icabad Crane.

Picks: Big Brown, Take of Ekati, Denis of Cork

Good luck to everyone, enjoy your day and let’s get everyone home safe!!

Posted by dana on Jun 07 2008    
Filed Under: Indian Blessing, Benny the Bull, TBA, Raymond Haddad, Casino Drive, Anak Nakal, Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Criminologist, 3yo, Thor's Echo, Belmont, Retirement Watch, Triple Crown, Handicapping, Turf, Belmont Stakes, Racing

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Just Like Our Old Friend…


Evening Attire away in his usual lingering fashion in the Brooklyn (Sarah K. Andrew)

I take my sweet time out of the gate (I’m still handicapping)!

I’ll post my picks tomorrow before I head out.

Posted by dana on Jun 06 2008    
Filed Under: Geldings, 2008, I'm Procrastinating, Sarah K. Andrew, Evening Attire, Belmont, Triple Crown, Handicapping, Racing

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Let’s Pretend

Remember how shocked you were when War Pass was a non-factor in the Tampa Bay Derby? It could happen again tomorrow, or anytime for that matter. No horse is unbeatable.

The Preakness

This field reminds me of what it was like in high school when I was on the basketball team and we played Mansfield Malabar. They had a forward named Francine “The Machine” Lewis. She was all state, super tall and looked like she was at least 27.

Whenever we played that team we had to just suck it up, show up, play our best and hope for the best. To make it worse, because she was so good the gym would be packed. We never caught a break against Francine The Machine (she was actually a fantastic team player and her teammates where quite good as well), but you never know, one of these guys could catch a break tomorrow. At the very least one of the these guys could make my day wheeled under Big Brown!

Racecar Rhapsody is wholly unimpressive on paper. Although, if you look closely you’ll notice that he’s never far off the leader and has hit the board 3 out of 6 tries. He’s also versatile when it comes to surface with no real giant variation in his performance on dirt and synthetics. That’s all fine and dandy but watch his last race… actually, watch his last 2 races. He’s got a good turn of foot, a great closing kick and will knock a horse out of the way if need be. I really liked him going in to the Lexington and I really like him here. He likes a fast pace and I think he’ll get it.

It’s tough for me to pick between Riley Tucker and Giant Moon, both like a fast pace and both have been knocking on the door. Giant Moon has been training nicely and seemed a touch more game the Riley Tucker last out so I’ll tentatively go with Giant Moon.

I also have to give a little bit of a shout out to Hey Byrn, I really like how he’s been training. He’s kept the same time at 5f but is now breezing it + his whopper mile endurance work time has improved as well. His last race had a really doddering pace but he’s been able to hang with a faster pace, at least at mile, so I may give him a look too.

I will definitely be factoring Big Brown into my wagering, unlike in the Derby. I might even do something crazy like trifecta wheel him to the field (and no doubt if I did that, he would lose).

Assuming either that Big Brown wins or is a non-factor…

Picks: Racecar Rhapsody, Giant Moon, Riley Tucker

Good luck and please let everyone get home safe!

I’ll try to post my picks for the rest of the card before I go to “The Office” tomorrow.

Posted by dana on May 16 2008    
Filed Under: 3yo, 2008, Picks, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, Handicapping, Racing

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I’ll Never Grow Up!

Well, obviously, but I’m actually talking about today’s 9th at Belmont, a.k.a. the Peter Pan!

Swifty tried to lure me to out to Neverland today but I declined thinking that might be able to pull off my annual cleaning (no luck so far, and look at the time!)… it’s only been the first race and things are going really well for him. Keep up the good work Swifty!

I’m going to take a pass on Casino Drive at such a short price. Last night on the phone Swifty, unaware of the Better Than Honour angle, asked “Casino Drive, WTF?” And rightfully so perhaps, as Alan wisely points out the inequity of judging Eight Belles’ connections as reckless when she had more experience than most of the field, yet Casino Drive’s quest for the Belmont can be characterized as a “historic quest“… barf. Annoyance aside, I am looking forward to seeing his performance, but am looking elsewhere in this field.

It doesn’t look to be a very speedy field, but Casino Drive and Spark Candle are kind of pace unknowns. I’m going with it being moderate to slow

In addition to Tomcito, I’m interested in Ready’s Echo and Cosmic… both have proven they can do well off a moderate to downright slow pace and both look to be improving.

Picks: Cosmic, Ready’s Echo, Tomcito, (exacta box)

Good luck to all, and let’s hope everyone comes home safe, all day for that matter!

Posted by dana on May 10 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Picks, 3yo, International Racing, Belmont, Handicapping, Racing

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It’s Official…

Derby 2008 was the Worst Derby Ever.

As I said over at John’s post about Sour Grape Kool-Aid, I’m not quite ready to deal with Big Brown the horse vs. Big Brown the implication. My friend Joan sent me this before the Derby:

Here’s all I have to say about this year’s Derby: if Big Brown wins, which he won’t unless all of the stars in the sky are out of alignment and the racing gods are out to pasture, I’ll be sick to my stomach. Because if he does, the “me too!” school of copy cat management will ensure we see more lightly raced horses next year and a new decline in the Derby fields going forward.

Mix in a trainer with a “checkered past” full of violations, an owners group that wants to go public and a whole lotta crass bragging and they make Curlin’s connections look like sissy suburban kids trying to look tough.

Big Brown ran a thrilling race, one I’ve watched less than my customary race replay watching habi-trail due to general upset-ness and the need to process what the F just happened. Not that anyone is going to show up in the Preakness, but I still want to a few more things, for example, how would he do in speed duel? Can he really rate as nicely as he did yesterday when he doesn’t have to?

Usually, I would have gone to the The Office with Swifty, but as fate would have it he had a function to attend out of town. I went to my beloved Belmont with Jessica & Teresa… I had a great time with them but let me say that I won’t be going back to Belmont, or any track, to try and play a card at another track unless I can get a table with my own TV.

One bright note was that as we entered we ran into Alan from Bug Boys on his way out. It was nice to have an impromptu mini-TBA meet-up and we agreed that we would plan to meet up at Belmont some time soon.

I played the card here and there with no success. My biggest issue was that I couldn’t find a good place to settle in and get to work. I really need to have a home base in these situations. When I’m going to the track to play the card it’s easy, I pick a spot in the stands, put my crap there and I get down to business. For the Preakness I’ll definitely be back at The Office with Swifty, and hopefully Jessica and Teresa too.

Another “feature” of the day was that the snazzy new GIANT flat screen TVs (which are really nice) didn’t have the sound up so we had to watch in silence as the Derby unfolded. Jessica liked Gayego, Teresa liked Cool Coal Man and we all know I liked Pyro. As they turned into the stretch it was clear none of them were in the mix. At first I thought Big Brown was Court Vision, which was exicting but then I saw the saddle cloth. It really looked like Eight Belles could have caught Big Brown for a second, but it was not meant to be.

The simulcast signal didn’t have the breakdown so we had no idea it had happened. We were very busy expressing our outrage and dismay for the many disgusting implications a Dutrow/IEAH win with a lightly raced colt with bad feet had for our beloved sport which is already teetering on doing itself in without this.

Oddly, there also was not a lot a celebratory trash talk going on that one would expect in simulcast outlet. From what I can tell most of the folks on our floor were rooting for Pyro. A few minutes later Swifty sent me a txt saying “who broke down?”. I called him immediately and he said there was a horse “laying on the track”.

It took a few minutes to figure out what was going on but when he told me my heart sunk. I think the worst part was having to walk back over to Teresa and Jessica and tell them.

With the exception of Pyro, I felt pretty good about my read on the situation. Denis of Cork ran a great race with Bo-rail giving him almost exactly the same ride he gave Street Sense last year. Tale of Ekati did well and Anak Nakal improved.

Here’s what I did:

Pyro to win
Pyro exacta boxed with Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Z Fortune, Eight Belles and Denis of Cork
Exacta box of Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Z Fortune, Eight Belles and Denis of Cork
Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Z Fortune, Eight Belles and Denis of Cork to win
Pyro over Anak Nakal, Visionaire, Gayego, Big Truck and Smooth Air
Pyro boxed with Colonel John

One surprise was Recapturetheglory. Although I guess it wasn’t a surprise since the splits were slower than I anticipated and my notes about him were that he needed slower splits to do well. His owner/trainer said that “he left most of his race in the paddock” as he acted up a bit and didn’t respond well to the crowd. I would have loved to have seen what he could have done had he brought most of his race with him!

Speaking of which, I’m still bummed about Pyro. It looked like he had the room and but no gas in the tank. Blinkers Off over at Railbird, easily my favorite Derby reporting, noted Friday that there was a rumor floating around the backstretch a little birdie told him that Pyro has “chips”, as in bone chips. If they come out with this news in the next few days I will be even more grossed out than I already am, if that’s possible, with the cash out mentality that’s ruining racing and horses.

Here’s my take on the Eight Belles tragedy… let’s not fool ourselves, it could have just as easily happened in the Oaks. Good bye Derby 2008 and good riddance!

Posted by dana on May 04 2008    
Filed Under: Churchill Downs, TBA, Wrap Up, Court Vision, 2008, Industry, Hype, Farewell, Pyro, Derby Trail, Belmont, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby, NYRA, Simulcasting, Racing

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Derby Dating: Quickie, the Night Before


Gettin’ lucky in Kentucky… a.k.a., the Derby infield! (blake seely)

It’s the eve of the big dance and time to get down to business. Without further adieu, here are my thoughts on the bachelors and bachelorette!

My Derby Date…

Pyro:
I love you. I’ve always loved you. Barring any traffic trouble or just plain old bad luck, I think you can get the job done, particularly with your excellent post position. But if anyone can handle traffic, it’s you.

I don’t pay any attention to those who don’t think you’re fast enough or are concerned about your Beyers, they don’t know you like I do. I just wish all those public handicappers would quite picking you so your odds would be about 8-1!

Like, as in Like Like:

(will definitely box with Pyro, will probably place individual win bets depending on the odds and possibly box all of them as well)

Tale of Ekati:
I knew you could do it in the Wood, the pace was going to be to your liking and you had done your homework. Now, here you are, primed and ready and more than likely going to get fractions on the fast side, just like you like them. While I’m not jazzed about your post position I have faith that you can get yourself in the a good position and work your magic!

Court Vision:
I know you tried in the Wood, and did you look game. In fact it looked a bit like some more distance would have been good for you! Breezing into town and putting in some impressive works was the way to go. That in combination with your traffic practice in the rowdy Remsen and win over the surface in the Iroquois has my head turned. And let’s not forget that you prefer your fractions fast!

Eight Belles:
We all know I like the ladies, and you’re no exception! At first I was a little skeptical looking at the fractions of your races, but your two best performances were in the races with the faster splits. That in combination with your stellar work at the track and my birdie telling me that you’re looking good is enough for me to be out and proud about thinking you’ve got a shot! I only wish I had placed a Larry Jones Oaks/Derby Double wager!

Z Fortune:
I know I thought you couldn’t be a doctor, but you buckled down and have shown us that you’re serious. Believe me, people have noticed too. Paging Dr. Fortune?

Denis of Cork:
I’m not concerned about what happened in Illinois. I know you’ve been working nicely at Churchill and know this is going to be your kind of pace, even though you have definitely shown some flexibility in the pace department (if not a touch of change of pace training!). And let’s not forget, you’ve already won at Churchill.

Would be seen in the hallway with:

(definitely have a shot at being on the board, will more than likely box with Pyro and a few others)

Smooth Air:
I like you. You know that distance is an issue for you and you work on it constantly, that’s a turn on! I also know you like some fast fractions… if the track is sloppy tomorrow you move right up to Like Like. Heck, at your current odds I may as well count you as Like Like!

Big Truck:
Nice works! I think the pace is going to be your style too although if the track is sloppy I have to look elsewhere. Bluegrass? What Bluegrass? Grass is green, duh!

Visionaire:
Speaking of the Bluegrass, your finish position doesn’t at all indicate how impressive your 10 wide run was. You didn’t have enough room in the Risen Star, and who knows what the hell happened in the Gotham other than you won it. If it’s a sloppy track tomorrow you and Smooth Air are my giant tri box with Pyro.

Gayego:
You looked great in Arkansas (even thought your jockey whipped the living daylights out of you in the stretch!!). The fractions look to be to your liking, but I have to say it, I’m concerned about your post position. But I still think you’re hot!

Anak Nakal:
What? You heard me right. I know that I “officially” broke up with him but he’s gotten his act together a bit. Let’s review, he improved in the Wood, has improved works, has won at Churchill and takes those annoying blinkers off. The pace should be right up his alley so at his price I’m willing to get him in the mix.

Still Not Sure About…

Colonel John:
Listen, I like everything I see. I really do. You can handle any kind of pace scenario, you had a nice gallop out after your impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby and your work at Churchill was duly noted. But just because Gayego’s form transferred to dirt doesn’t mean yours will. Look at Big Truck, he worked a great bullet over the surface at Keenland and where did that get him? I’ll probably box you here and there but I’m still a little a skeptical of you…

You think you’re all that:

Big Brown:
Listen hot stuff, I’ll be really happy for you if you smash the field, particularly with your post position, but I can’t get behind you just yet. I’m just not ready, so don’t push me, ok?

Best of luck to everyone!!

Posted by dana on May 02 2008    
Filed Under: Pyro, Churchill Downs, Court Vision, 2008, 3yo, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, Triple Crown, Handicapping, Racing

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Set Down for the Drive

With the work behind me, the store is launched, the site is updated and a freshly delivered pizza awaiting me, I’m going to do a little prep work tonight and spend the day handicapping tomorrow for Saturday’s Churchill card.

And you know what that mean, lots of procrastination posts!

Posted by dana on May 01 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, I'm Procrastinating, Internet, Hennegan Brothers, Handicapping, Derby Trail

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Lava Man & Noe Garcia

Lava Man & Noe Garcia
Lava Man and his beloved groom Noe Garcia before the Khaled Stakes at Hollywood Park (Charles Pravata)

Charles Pravata was kind enough to send me this great shot of Lava Man and his groom Noe Garcia prior to the Khaled in the paddock. While he didn’t win, I thought he ran well and was definitely not the checked out Lava Man of his prior 3 6th places.

His connections seem to be eyeing another try at the Gold Cup! And while trainer Doug O’Neil was disappointed he didn’t win, he felt that Lava Man would probably need a race or two to get back into good form. Only fair for 7yo!

I took a look over at YouTube to see if I could find the race. Not only did find it, I found two excellent “extras”!

Here’s a clip of handicapper Rich Perloff discussing Lava Man. While discussing works he also points out the difference between breezing vs. handy between the east & west coast tracks. Someone in the crowd also raises my point about Lava Man’s 3 flops coinciding with his groom’s absence.

Here’s some footage of Lava Man preparing for the race.

And finally, the race itself…

Welcome back old man!

Posted by dana on Apr 28 2008    
Filed Under: Geldings, Charles Pravata, Hollywood Gold Cup, Doug O'Neill, 2008, Corey Nakatani, Workouts, YouTube, Lava Man, Fans, Handicapping, Race Replay, Turf, Hollywood Park, Racing

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