While looking over the Gulfstream card for tomorrow, a few things jump out (besides how interesting the Florida Derby is going to be!).

While we’re all caught up in the current derby hype of Big Brown, Tomcito and the like I’d like to take you for a little trip in the (not so) way back machine… note last year’s Florida Derby:

Michael Matz trainee Chelokee was very much in vogue in the hype machine and his maneuver to get around some horses and close strongly in the Florida Derby only added fuel to the fire. Was he the next Barbaro? Would he run in the Derby? There ended up being no Triple Crown action for the talented colt but he did go on to win the Barbaro Stakes (nee Sir Barton - change it back!) on Preakness day and the Northern Dancer before sustaining an ankle injury.

Fast forward to tomorrow, site of the 2008 Florida Derby, where Chelokee will be making his 4 year old debut as the 7-5 favorite in race 6, a 75K allowance optional claimer (where no one is in for a tag). Drums of Thunder, also on the Derby Trail last year, is also in the race. I’m wondering Chelokee will pull a Circular Quay and have a triumphant return?

Other 2007 Derby Trail horses on tomorrow’s Gulfstream card include Izzie’s Halo in the 8th and Imawildandcrazyguy in the 12th, who also ran in last year’s Florida Derby.

Best of luck to all them!

Posted by dana on Mar 28 2008    
Filed Under: Come Back, YouTube, 2008, Imawildandcrazyguy, Barbaro, Triple Crown, Circular Quay, Race Replay, Racing

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A game Circular Quay training with Pleasant Strike at Belmont October 2006 (Sarah K. Andrew)

My apologies for all the typos in my rush job of a picks post… as usual I waited just a bit too long to before starting the post, not that unlike Evening Attire out of the gate!

While I didn’t have a stellar day (I’ve had worse), I did manage to cash 2 tickets, predict Daytona would show, Pyro would win and unexpectedly got to see a glimmer of hope for the handicap division!

As I feared, Euroears was the real deal… and an impressive real deal at that. I’m looking to forward to seeing him again, no doubt in graded company.

The New Orleans Handicap was both annoying and fantastic. During the parade I had noticed that Circular Quay looked great, really sharp and ready to go… Brass Hat on the other hand looked like he was ready for a nap. I literally laughed out loud but decided to keep with my plan (like an idiot), which was to box Silver Lord (who dumped his rider out of the gate) and Brass Hat… end annoying part.

With no Silver Lord it was Grasshopper and Magna Graduate setting the fractions. At one point Magna Graduate took over but a hard held Circular Quay was uncorked at the top of the stretch and the fantastic part of the race unfurled! What a stretch duel, going back and forth between them… Circular Quay is back on form!

It was fitting that his win came on the same day as the Louisiana Derby, the site of his last victory. As the guy beside me said, “now maybe Pletcher won’t be afraid to run him at two turns.” I should also mention that I had Reporting for Duty across the board, which didn’t even pay for the ticket since he showed (I didn’t really think that one through… back to annoying).

Moving on, I overlooked the winner of the Mervyn Muniz but had noted that he liked yielding turf and had won off taking a month off. I did have French Beret across the board, which significantly cut into my loses and as predicted Daytona set the fractions and then dropped. It looked like French Beret could have caught Proudinsky with a bit more distance.

For fun I boxed Acacia and Wisconsin Girl… what if Indian Blessing and Proud Spell had unseated their riders too? Go Proud Spell! I thought she would do it in the Silverbulletday but she did it today and she did it with authority.

As for the Louisiana Derby, I’m sure I’m not alone in saying that I would wagered differently had I thought J Be K would rate against soft fractions. I dismissed both My Pal Charlie and Yankee Bravo thinking that they needed a slower pace to perform well. At least I can take some solace in getting that right! Instead I put Pyro over Blackberry Road and Unbridled Vicar thinking they would benefit from a fast pace. Ugh. I also exacta boxed J Be K, Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati… basically my wildcard box.

Losing tickets aside, Pyro turned in a nice performance… I can’t wait to see him and War Pass duke it out! I’m willing to give Take of Ekati and Majestic Warrior another race, that wasn’t exactly the easiest spot for a debut.

Posted by dana on Mar 08 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, Majestic Warrior, Fairgrounds, 2008, Proud Spell, Indian Blessing, Sarah K. Andrew, Grasshopper, Derby Trail, Gambling, Handicapping, Circular Quay, Come Back, Racing

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Brass Hat winning the Mass Cap (Imfedore)

I was finally able to do some handicapping this morning and am off to “the office” to play the Fairgrounds card. Things over at Take Back The Race are progressing nicely, it’s really great to read all the comments. I’ll be posting some more banners here for folks to grab and display later this weekend… on to the picks!

Euroears looks tough and Noonmark looks promising but I’m going to go with Semephore Man. He’s held his own with both Bordonaro and Diabolical (who just crushed at Nad Al Sheba). His works are also fantastic! My questions about him are can he ship and can he rate? He’s definitely the horse for the distance and I’m gonna take my shot with him. King of the Roxy is a wild card to me here, he should do well at the distance and he’s won off a break so I may use him too.

Grasshopper looks tough to beat, but you know I’m gonna try… and I’m gonna try with Brass Hat! I think the pace will be on the slow side with Silver Lord leading the way and Brass Hat is the only one, aside from Grasshopper, who has done well off a slow pace. I would consider Magna Graduate but I think he needs a faster pace. Circular Quay is a bit of wild card but I’m hoping he takes some sentimental money (but I’m sure Brass Hat will too). Reporting for Duty has put in two nice efforts and could do well off a soft pace too.

I love a turf race when it’s soft! I liked Daytona last out and of course think he has a shot here but I really like Brilliant and Fracas. Both like it soft and both have gone up against some stiff competition. I love Brilliant’s odds and his last race Saratoga was on rock hard turf so I’m expecting him to really improve here + he’s improved off a break in the past. Fracas training pattern looks like he might run a big one + he’s placed to Dylan Thomas and likes it soft.

I’m taking a pass on the Fairground Oaks, it’s either gonna be Indian Blessing or Proud Spell, take your pick. If it’s one of the other two I’ll be supremely bummed that I didn’t have her.

Finally, a Derby prep with some pace! I’m not sure if what I’m gonna do here because Take of Ekati and Majestic Warrior are big wild cards. Both have been training well and will benefit from J Be K’s pace, as will Pyro. The pace should also help Unbridled Vicar and Blackberry Road so who knows! I think Pyro will win it but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the aforementioned colts won. I’m not sure Stevil, My Pal Charlie or Yankee Bravo can handle what looks to be a fast pace.

Best of luck to all!

Posted by dana on Mar 08 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Fairgrounds, Picks, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell, Take Back the Race, Pyro, Majestic Warrior, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Circular Quay, Turf, Grasshopper, 3yo, Racing

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Surf Cat, far left, wins the San Carlos. Circular Quay, far right, doesn’t. (Charles Pravata)

It’s curious to me that many of the 4yos returning from pre-Derby injuries last year are coming back in kind of tough spots. If it were up to me, I’d ease them in with softer landings.

Circular Quay, pictured above did nothing in the San Carlos, but should be expected to? Great Hunter is finally starting to show signs of life after 3 starts. He debuted in the Malibu and came in 11th, just ahead of another returning colt, Cobalt Blue.

I can’t remember what spot Ravel debuted in, but he certainly hasn’t come out swinging and I don’t believe Belgravia has done much either (please feel free to leave a comment if you remember the details of their debuts, Google couldn’t really help me).

Notional is set to debut in a handicap in about an hour, I’m hoping he’ll do as well as Doug O’Neill thinks he can. Dominican has also put in a couple of works in the past month but doesn’t seem to be working regularly just yet.

Is it just me or does it seem like there are some unrealistic expectations here? Most of these horses only have only raced a handful of times, it’s not like they have a TON of experience under their belt. It would be nice to see them set up to excel, not fail.

Posted by dana on Feb 17 2008    
Filed Under: Notional, Charles Pravata, 2008, 4yo, Belgravia, Ravel, Dominican, Great Hunter, Circular Quay, Injury, Racing

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I’m still not entirely sure how I’m going to do my final bets, I always decide in the last minutes before the race… it really depends on the odds plus I’ll be looking for biases thru the day.

Definite Bets:
Hard Spun to win

Likely Additional Bets:
Hard Spun - Culin Box
Hard Spun - Circular Quay Box
Hard Spun - Exchanger Straight Exacta
Hard Spun - Flying First Class Straight Exacta

My thoughts are (clearly) that Hard Spun can win it so I’ll put a sizable bet there. I also think the Derby was probably good for Curlin. I’m looking for him to sit closer to the pace and have a better shot this time.

As for Circular Quay, he was coming off a lay off into the Derby and stands to be improved + less traffic will be better for his closing style. Yesterday at Pimilco the 3rd post position was heavily favored as were stalkers. This is Circular Quay’s post position.

As for Flying First Class & Xchanger… both have early speed and my guess is that Hard Spun will rate right behind them. What if Curlin or Street Sense get stuck and can’t get up?

As for Street Sense, my same theory applies… when I see him go around horses to win, I’ll bet him at this price (or if there’s a strong bias like in the Derby).

Speaking of biases, as of right now, Ramon Dominquez has won the first two races at Pimlico and both were stalkers. He’s riding Xchanger today. Also, both winners were on outside post postions (10 & 9).

Good Luck to All!!

Posted by dana on May 19 2007    
Filed Under: Circular Quay, Biases, 2007, Pimlico, Xchanger, Handicapping, Triple Crown, Wagering, Wooo!, Hard Spun, Street Sense, Curlin, Racing

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