Derby 2008 was the Worst Derby Ever.

As I said over at John’s post about Sour Grape Kool-Aid, I’m not quite ready to deal with Big Brown the horse vs. Big Brown the implication. My friend Joan sent me this before the Derby:

Here’s all I have to say about this year’s Derby: if Big Brown wins, which he won’t unless all of the stars in the sky are out of alignment and the racing gods are out to pasture, I’ll be sick to my stomach. Because if he does, the “me too!” school of copy cat management will ensure we see more lightly raced horses next year and a new decline in the Derby fields going forward.

Mix in a trainer with a “checkered past” full of violations, an owners group that wants to go public and a whole lotta crass bragging and they make Curlin’s connections look like sissy suburban kids trying to look tough.

Big Brown ran a thrilling race, one I’ve watched less than my customary race replay watching habi-trail due to general upset-ness and the need to process what the F just happened. Not that anyone is going to show up in the Preakness, but I still want to a few more things, for example, how would he do in speed duel? Can he really rate as nicely as he did yesterday when he doesn’t have to?

Usually, I would have gone to the The Office with Swifty, but as fate would have it he had a function to attend out of town. I went to my beloved Belmont with Jessica & Teresa… I had a great time with them but let me say that I won’t be going back to Belmont, or any track, to try and play a card at another track unless I can get a table with my own TV.

One bright note was that as we entered we ran into Alan from Bug Boys on his way out. It was nice to have an impromptu mini-TBA meet-up and we agreed that we would plan to meet up at Belmont some time soon.

I played the card here and there with no success. My biggest issue was that I couldn’t find a good place to settle in and get to work. I really need to have a home base in these situations. When I’m going to the track to play the card it’s easy, I pick a spot in the stands, put my crap there and I get down to business. For the Preakness I’ll definitely be back at The Office with Swifty, and hopefully Jessica and Teresa too.

Another “feature” of the day was that the snazzy new GIANT flat screen TVs (which are really nice) didn’t have the sound up so we had to watch in silence as the Derby unfolded. Jessica liked Gayego, Teresa liked Cool Coal Man and we all know I liked Pyro. As they turned into the stretch it was clear none of them were in the mix. At first I thought Big Brown was Court Vision, which was exicting but then I saw the saddle cloth. It really looked like Eight Belles could have caught Big Brown for a second, but it was not meant to be.

The simulcast signal didn’t have the breakdown so we had no idea it had happened. We were very busy expressing our outrage and dismay for the many disgusting implications a Dutrow/IEAH win with a lightly raced colt with bad feet had for our beloved sport which is already teetering on doing itself in without this.

Oddly, there also was not a lot a celebratory trash talk going on that one would expect in simulcast outlet. From what I can tell most of the folks on our floor were rooting for Pyro. A few minutes later Swifty sent me a txt saying “who broke down?”. I called him immediately and he said there was a horse “laying on the track”.

It took a few minutes to figure out what was going on but when he told me my heart sunk. I think the worst part was having to walk back over to Teresa and Jessica and tell them.

With the exception of Pyro, I felt pretty good about my read on the situation. Denis of Cork ran a great race with Bo-rail giving him almost exactly the same ride he gave Street Sense last year. Tale of Ekati did well and Anak Nakal improved.

Here’s what I did:

Pyro to win
Pyro exacta boxed with Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Z Fortune, Eight Belles and Denis of Cork
Exacta box of Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Z Fortune, Eight Belles and Denis of Cork
Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Z Fortune, Eight Belles and Denis of Cork to win
Pyro over Anak Nakal, Visionaire, Gayego, Big Truck and Smooth Air
Pyro boxed with Colonel John

One surprise was Recapturetheglory. Although I guess it wasn’t a surprise since the splits were slower than I anticipated and my notes about him were that he needed slower splits to do well. His owner/trainer said that “he left most of his race in the paddock” as he acted up a bit and didn’t respond well to the crowd. I would have loved to have seen what he could have done had he brought most of his race with him!

Speaking of which, I’m still bummed about Pyro. It looked like he had the room and but no gas in the tank. Blinkers Off over at Railbird, easily my favorite Derby reporting, noted Friday that there was a rumor floating around the backstretch a little birdie told him that Pyro has “chips”, as in bone chips. If they come out with this news in the next few days I will be even more grossed out than I already am, if that’s possible, with the cash out mentality that’s ruining racing and horses.

Here’s my take on the Eight Belles tragedy… let’s not fool ourselves, it could have just as easily happened in the Oaks. Good bye Derby 2008 and good riddance!

Posted by dana on May 04 2008    
Filed Under: Churchill Downs, TBA, Wrap Up, Court Vision, 2008, Industry, Hype, Farewell, Pyro, Derby Trail, Belmont, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby, NYRA, Simulcasting, Racing

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Gettin’ lucky in Kentucky… a.k.a., the Derby infield! (blake seely)

It’s the eve of the big dance and time to get down to business. Without further adieu, here are my thoughts on the bachelors and bachelorette!

Pyro:
I love you. I’ve always loved you. Barring any traffic trouble or just plain old bad luck, I think you can get the job done, particularly with your excellent post position. But if anyone can handle traffic, it’s you.

I don’t pay any attention to those who don’t think you’re fast enough or are concerned about your Beyers, they don’t know you like I do. I just wish all those public handicappers would quite picking you so your odds would be about 8-1!

(will definitely box with Pyro, will probably place individual win bets depending on the odds and possibly box all of them as well)

Tale of Ekati:
I knew you could do it in the Wood, the pace was going to be to your liking and you had done your homework. Now, here you are, primed and ready and more than likely going to get fractions on the fast side, just like you like them. While I’m not jazzed about your post position I have faith that you can get yourself in the a good position and work your magic!

Court Vision:
I know you tried in the Wood, and did you look game. In fact it looked a bit like some more distance would have been good for you! Breezing into town and putting in some impressive works was the way to go. That in combination with your traffic practice in the rowdy Remsen and win over the surface in the Iroquois has my head turned. And let’s not forget that you prefer your fractions fast!

Eight Belles:
We all know I like the ladies, and you’re no exception! At first I was a little skeptical looking at the fractions of your races, but your two best performances were in the races with the faster splits. That in combination with your stellar work at the track and my birdie telling me that you’re looking good is enough for me to be out and proud about thinking you’ve got a shot! I only wish I had placed a Larry Jones Oaks/Derby Double wager!

Z Fortune:
I know I thought you couldn’t be a doctor, but you buckled down and have shown us that you’re serious. Believe me, people have noticed too. Paging Dr. Fortune?

Denis of Cork:
I’m not concerned about what happened in Illinois. I know you’ve been working nicely at Churchill and know this is going to be your kind of pace, even though you have definitely shown some flexibility in the pace department (if not a touch of change of pace training!). And let’s not forget, you’ve already won at Churchill.

(definitely have a shot at being on the board, will more than likely box with Pyro and a few others)

Smooth Air:
I like you. You know that distance is an issue for you and you work on it constantly, that’s a turn on! I also know you like some fast fractions… if the track is sloppy tomorrow you move right up to Like Like. Heck, at your current odds I may as well count you as Like Like!

Big Truck:
Nice works! I think the pace is going to be your style too although if the track is sloppy I have to look elsewhere. Bluegrass? What Bluegrass? Grass is green, duh!

Visionaire:
Speaking of the Bluegrass, your finish position doesn’t at all indicate how impressive your 10 wide run was. You didn’t have enough room in the Risen Star, and who knows what the hell happened in the Gotham other than you won it. If it’s a sloppy track tomorrow you and Smooth Air are my giant tri box with Pyro.

Gayego:
You looked great in Arkansas (even thought your jockey whipped the living daylights out of you in the stretch!!). The fractions look to be to your liking, but I have to say it, I’m concerned about your post position. But I still think you’re hot!

Anak Nakal:
What? You heard me right. I know that I “officially” broke up with him but he’s gotten his act together a bit. Let’s review, he improved in the Wood, has improved works, has won at Churchill and takes those annoying blinkers off. The pace should be right up his alley so at his price I’m willing to get him in the mix.

Colonel John:
Listen, I like everything I see. I really do. You can handle any kind of pace scenario, you had a nice gallop out after your impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby and your work at Churchill was duly noted. But just because Gayego’s form transferred to dirt doesn’t mean yours will. Look at Big Truck, he worked a great bullet over the surface at Keenland and where did that get him? I’ll probably box you here and there but I’m still a little a skeptical of you…

Big Brown:
Listen hot stuff, I’ll be really happy for you if you smash the field, particularly with your post position, but I can’t get behind you just yet. I’m just not ready, so don’t push me, ok?

Best of luck to everyone!!

Posted by dana on May 02 2008    
Filed Under: Pyro, Churchill Downs, Court Vision, 2008, 3yo, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, Triple Crown, Handicapping, Racing

(1 votes, average: 5 out of 5)

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Tale of Ekati winning the Wood as my phone flies over the balcony at Aqueduct (Sarah K. Andrew)

Let’s start by examining my proclivity for procrastination. The upsides are clear, I tend to do things I normally wouldn’t like wash dishes, dust bust numerous hairballs from the Home Zoo and post plenty of “interesting content“.

This pathological behavior does, however, have a downside… one of them being that I didn’t end up with enough time to publish a post about why Tale of Ekati was my pick of the day yesterday before I had to run out to catch the A train to the Big A. But we’ll get to that (yes, I’m now going to meta-procrastinate).

Here’s a post I’ve been meaning to write for awhile, “Facebook, it’s not just for the rotten kids”. Of the many social networking sites, Facebook is the only one that “has delivered” for me for anything other than time wasting (don’t get me wrong, it’s great for that!) and proving that you’re a bigger hipster than everyone else.

I met the Hennegan Brothers on Facebook, taken part in many great discussions with people inside the industry, and now hung out with a fun bunch of Fans of Thoroughbred Racing in New York.

Group creator, the fabulous Ernie Munick (giving the thumbs up next Pablo Fragoso), organized the day billed as “Day of Degeneracy” to get people in the group to come out to the track and actually hang out (instead of just post on the group’s wall).

He also arranged for us to have our picture taken in the winner’s circle! I always wondered how to go about getting “Happy Birthday Adam “Swifty” Wiener” in the NYRA program, and now I know… you just call and give them $300! Get a group of 10 folks together and can’t afford not to do it.

Here we are, in all our glory (I’m on the far right… ironic, no?):

Note the title of the picture “Thoroughbred Racing in New York “Facebook”. It also said this in the program! This is what I meant by pioneering an analog/digital mashup… this is no doubt the first time a NYRA program has the word Facebook in it… I love it when worlds collide!

Several of the TBA folks were included in this group, Jessica at Railbird, Teresa at Brooklyn Backstretch and Alan at Left at Gate (who’s not pictured… he was very busy live blogging the whole day).

John stopped by for a few moments in between meeting, greeting and kissing babies to get folks to the premiere in 2 weeks. And of course, Swifty was there (behind Ernie in the Classy & Classic sunglasses)… we wouldn’t miss a chance to be in the winner’s circle, or perhaps more appropriately, the Wiener’s Circle (Swifty = Adam Wiener).

Did I mention it was nice out? Notice us there, no coats. We ended up sitting outside all day in a box right in front of the finish line. We were on the third floor and there was a little balcony right in front of us that was gated. The gate was rail height (about 3 feet?) so at one point Jessica started to climb over it to get a better view of the paddock below. A helpful NYRA employee came over and unlocked it for us, no doubt guessing that it would just be easier than telling us to stop climbing over it all day.

The races were great and the place was packed. When I go to a track, I like to play the card… maybe not every race, but I find it distracting to have to pop over to the TV to watch a race elsewhere and then have my final decision making time eaten into. Surprise, I also procrastinate when it comes to wagering! With this in mind I decided to take pass on playing the bazillion great stakes races not at Aqueduct.

Prior to the Wood I was doing ok, compared to how I’ve been doing on the year I was doing great, but by normal standards I was doing just OK. I had the exacta in the 6th which brought me back to within $4 of being even. I didn’t do anything interesting in the 7th or 8th, although Jessica & Swifty had Temporary Saint in the Excelsior, but the Wood was different story.

I’m always refining my handicapping style, looking for more efficient or productive ways to analyze the data. Some things I’ve started to do recently have really been helpful. I take several passes at all of the horses, in one of those passes I note the predominant running style and type of pace the horse needs to perform well. While looking at this aspect of the Wood, I noted that Tale of Ekati needed a faster pace than he got in Louisiana Derby to do his best.

In another pass I examine the workouts. Is there any pattern, how did they work prior to their last races, have they been training for endurance, speed, etc. My note on Maryfield prior to the BC was “if she fires a bullet work before the race, seriously consider her”… and she did.

Combine Tale of Ekati’s comment line with his recent two works. “Brushed break, no factor” and two handled 4F gate works at 47.2 and 47.4 geared towards increasing his speed out of the gate. I then went to watch the replay of the Louisiana Derby… bingo. He broke very tentatively, got headed and then checked out of the race. Combine all of this with impending speed duel on the front end ensuring a brisk pace and it looked really promising for Take of Ekati.

I also thought the race would set up well for Court Vision, Bill Mott didn’t put Inner Light in to help Take of Ekati! This was one of those rare times when a flash of handicapping insight occurs with my ability to wager correctly. Here’s what I did:

Tale of Ekati to Win
Exacta box of Tale of Ekati & Court Vision
Trifecta box of Tale of Ekati, Court Vision & War Pass
Anak Nakal across the board (I thought he would improve under this pace scenario, and he did, but not enough).

Fast forward to the race… Tale of Ekati broke like a dream (he’s a good student and Barclay Tagg is a good teacher!) and Inner Light was pushing War Pass into fast fractions. Things were all going according to plan. As they came into the stretch War Pass still had a decent lead but Tale of Ekati starts to come on, and come on strong.

As they come to the wire it looks like Tale of Ekati is going to get up in time… we’re all on the balcony jumping up and down, screaming like nuts when I notice something fly out of my inside jacket pocket.

Just as Tale of Ekati is making my day, my attention is turned to the box seats below to see my phone land right behind some unsuspecting guy and what appeared to be his father! It took me a few seconds to realize that Tale of Ekati did indeed win AND that I hit the tri!

I’m also happy to report that not only does my phone still work, it didn’t even have a scratch… and perhaps the best part is it didn’t injure anyone!

As if this all wasn’t great enough, I also managed to get over my fear of betting horses to win. I liked Curlin to win the Classic, Swifty and I spent almost 2 hours the night before discussing the favorites in the classic to compare and contrast each of them. Curlin it was, and at 9/2 did I bet him to win? No. This time, just like Tale of Ekati, I learned from last mistake and corrected it under favorable conditions.

It was a perfect day on many levels… and I was lucky enough to share it with some great folks! Of course it was nice to have a bunch of witnesses to a rare flash of handicapping insight, but the best part by far was that, contrary to what seems to be going on, racing felt very much alive.

Posted by dana on Apr 06 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, TBA, Maryfield, War Pass, Sarah K. Andrew, Aqueduct, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati, Running Style, 2008, Internet, Trifecta, Exacta, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Curlin, Fans, Barclay Tagg, NYRA, Workouts, First Saturday in May, Hennegan Brothers, Come Back, Racing

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(Barking Madcaz)

Bandwagon jumpers, believers, non-believers, and hype haters… we’re all looking for the same thing, right? To fall in love. But we’re skeptics… hurt so many times in the past, afraid to open our hearts again and be made a fool of. So we’re cautious, asking our intendeds to jump through hoop after hoop after hoop before we’ll say with certainty “I love [horse name]!”.

Maybe I don’t believe in monogamy… I believe it’s ok to love one and bet on another, or even multiple others! I like to have an open relationship with a horse. I may love you with all of my heart, but if your odds are too low I’m probably not going to bet on you. Sorry honey!

It’s close enough to the big dance now that I can start to evaluate my Derby suitors. For the most part I’ve seen enough to know who’s just a fleeting interest and who’s got some real potential.

Just a crush? Let’s be friends? Or I really think we could be something special… only time will tell! Until then, here’s how they’re stacking for me.

Pyro:
He caught my eye as a two year old, putting in very game efforts in both the Champagne and Breeders’ Cup.

But he really won me over in the Risen Star with his shocking turn of foot and insane final quarter. And just to prove that he’s no one trick pony, he stayed involved in the Louisiana Derby, sitting much closer to the pace and proving again that he can get around those others when he needs too.

Sure, he’s a hype machine and there’s always something, but he’s moved off my “prove it to me list” and on the confirmed “Like” list.

Sierra Sunset:
This guy just turned up on my radar yesterday but I’m definitely interested. Getting away from the polytrack has spiffed up this looker! He improved at a mile at Oaklawn when he placing to the also dreamy Denis of Cork and then stretched out beautifully to win impressively. I’m ready to see some more!

Denis Cork:
And doesn’t Sierra Sunset’s nice performance speak well of this young man? His performance in the aforementioned race was very professional, sitting just off the pace and then powering home. I’m really looking forward to his next outing.

Elysium Fields:
Another new guy on the scene, at least for me, his performance in the Fountain of Youth was full of promise. Just as it looked like Cool Coal Man was going to put some distance between them, he moved to the outside and turned it on… fighting back is a big turn on! Not only does this bode well for the distance but he kept going in the gallop out… this guy is the at the top of the list!

Majestic Warrior:
His performance in the Hopeful was indeed just that! He came out of the clouds to blow past the favorites. In his 3yo debut he ran wide and made big a move on the final turn but failed to fire. I believe in this handsome devil and am willing to give him another chance to prove himself to me.

Cool Coal Man:
As already mentioned, this guy looked very convincing in the Fountain of Youth but I still want a little more convincing before I say yes.

King’s Silver Son:
Here’s another new guy on the scene! He was really game and closing hard in the stretch in the Rebel. With a little more practice he could be a real heart stopper… I’ve got my eye on you!

Fierce Wind:
Obviously, I like to have a lot of suitors on deck… but that’s just because you can never be too sure! I found this guy’s performance in the Sam B. Davis as solid as any and for that I’m willing to keep him on the (apparently not so) short list to see what happens next.

Georgie Boy:
Dirt darling, dirt. That’s my only reservation but it’s one I can’t overlook, at least not for the Derby. Too bad too, he could be just the one for me otherwise!

Visionaire:
I wanted his Gotham win to impress me more than it did but 1) I couldn’t see what happened and 2) he was shipped there to avoid Pyro. I like a winner and a touch of mystery but I need to see more of what you’ve got before we go any further!

Court Vision:
He could pop right back up on the ‘Next Stop Like” list with ease but I thought he’d do a little a better in the Fountain of Youth… I mean he did close off a slow pace in that rowdy Remsen! Maybe we’ll just be friends, but really good friends!

El Gato Malo:
Hard not to like a bad boy, but this bad boy may not be that bad after all. And what will he make of the dirt? I may just keep him on my “call him when you’re in Cali” list.

Colonel John:
Admittedly, it takes a lot for me to pay attention to those Cali boys so perhaps I haven’t given this one a fair shake. He just hasn’t been on my radar.

Tale of Ekati:
I’m willing to give him another start off of his tough debut but Majestic Warrior gave me butterflies the first time I noticed him, not this guy.

J Be K:
He’s fast and I like that but can he stay in for the long haul? I don’t think he got fair shake at it last out as Kent D. didn’t harness his natural speed. I’ll believe it when I see it but think he should get another shot.

Big Brown:
There’s a lot of talk about this late comer, I’d like to get a look for myself before I believe any hype.

Cowboy Cal:
Again, another one from Cali… I can’t keep all you surfer dudes straight!

Tomcito:
I’ve been hearing rumors in the hallways that there’s a new student starting soon and he’s really something. You never know when some one exciting can show up and change everything!

War Pass:
Last year’s prom king, and deservedly so. But we’re older now and it’s time to get a little more serious, show that you can handle the distance. Everyone has a bad day… hey, that’s part of growing up. But you’re going to have buckle down and really bring it next time or you may not be the top of your class after all.

Attoned:
He’s an around the way guy, full of heart and as honest as they come… what’s not to like? I’ll be really happy for him if it works out but if not maybe we can hang out this summer?

Big Truck:
Ditto accept if I had to pick between the two of them, I’d pick this big guy. He’s improved every time since the Hucheson and now we know he doesn’t like slop! Regardless of how it all works out, I’ll be looking for him this summer.

Unbridled Vicar:
He won’t make it to the big dance but I bet he might get better with age!

Blackberry Road:
I dismissed him early because people seemed to think he was the next Street Sense (which wasn’t exactly the kind of thing to get me interested), but as it turns out I think this guy’s got some heart. Check you later on in the year!

Z Fortune:
Sometimes those rich guys are endearing when they mess up a little. Maybe his parents don’t have realistic expectations for him? Just because he won’t be a doctor doesn’t mean he won’t be good at something!

Anak Nakal:
I’m sure you’re a nice guy, and I don’t have anything bad to say about you… but from what some of my friends were saying about you I expected a little more. I do wish you the best of luck and maybe our paths will cross again some day.

Posted by dana on Mar 17 2008    
Filed Under: Court Vision, Remsen, 2008, El Gato Malo, Pyro, War Pass, Derby Trail, Kent Desormeaux, Majestic Warrior, Racing

(1 votes, average: 5 out of 5)

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Nick Zito at Saratoga (Sarah K. Andrew)

It’s great to see Nick Zito fully loaded (and not only because I have him in all of my various Derby fantasy stables!).

In keeping with my “this year’s 3yo’s have really fun names” recap style…

That Cool Coal Man took a trip to Elysium Fields and had an excellent Court Vision.

Posted by dana on Feb 25 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Gulfstream Park, RTTR, Court Vision, Nick Zito, Derby Trail, 3yo, Racing

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