1979 Mattel Horse Racing Analyzer and gift from Swifty!

I had fantastic luck yesterday… with the subway. Every time I arrived on the platform the train was arriving. I even hopped across the platform to catch the arriving express train after one stop, making my normal 30+ minute door to door to the office 15 minutes. This luck was with me for each of my four subway rides, the subway equivalent of a Pick 6 given it a was a Saturday. This was where the luck ended.

I had the right selections in the Tiffany Lass but didn’t bet it right. I chose an exacta of Tizaqueena over Jolie The Cat & Highest Class and put a little bit on Highest Class to win. I had a nagging feeling that I should select Jolie The Cat to win but stuck with my choice. I was surprised to see her set the pace but someone had to do it. I thought it might be Syriana’s Song or Timely Reflection. She looked great on the lead and got the job done when asked after setting a nice slow pace. I still like Tizaqueena as well and will be keeping an eye on both her Jolie the Cat.

The LeComte was the subway luck equivalent of being stuck in a train that’s not moving in a car where the PA doesn’t work. I dismissed Z Fortune altogether, I’m not sure if it’s because his prior races were for state breds or that his last speed figure was 16 points lower the prior one but he looked really strong and is clearly one to keep an eye on. Lesson of the day: don’t mess with Asmussen at Fairgrounds! I’m also interested to see Smooth Air’s next out given that He’s Eze came in 4th here. I’m wondering if he could be a one surface wonder in the slop, like one of my sentimental favorites, Slew’s Tizzy. I really, really wish they’d send him to California or just run him on synthetic surfaces, isn’t it clear by now he doesn’t like the dirt?

Swifty was lamenting that the LeComte was where he fell in love last year. While I haven’t fallen in love yet (I have trust issues), I’m definitely looking forward to a second date with El Galo Mato! I didn’t bet this one correctly either, which is extra annoying due to my pre-office selections including the winning exacta. Nevertheless, that bad cat is the first 3yo colt that I think I could I really fall for… it was, however, love at first sight with Mushka, but I don’t want to digress too much.

In the San Pasqual Zappa looked really good to me in the parade and my note about him was that he could be ready to jump in class. I boxed him with Thousand Words and ran back to the window to get a win bet on him but just missed it. He looked really great as well sitting perfectly off the pace. I always love to see a claimer jump up in class.

And finally, in the subway luck equivalent of trudging to the station in the pouring rain to find your train not running at all, only to have walk several blocks to another line that doesn’t even put you within 4 four blocks of your final destination, we have Air Commander in the San Fernando! Jessica at Railbird points out the Dan Illman nailed Air Commander in the OTB channel’s live handicapping show… naturally one of the only times I didn’t watch it. Well done though! My long shot across the board was Big Bad Leroy Brown, who came in last! But what’s interesting to me is that of the remaining crop of last year’s 3yos, the ones that are improving are surprising. Take Pink Viper’s 107 Beyer in the Brush Up at Aqueduct. While not the same class of horses as the San Fernando, the speed figure is still quite an improvement.

Both Pink Viper and Air Commander were on the Derby Trail last year. Who else is out there improving greatly I wonder, and are horses like Ravel and Great Hunter going to improve? Time will tell. Dominican was back on the work tab this morning breezing 3F in :38:80 and Sedgefield is entered in the 7th at Gulfstream today, a 62K allowance optional claimer at 1 mile on the turf (not entered for a tag). Dawn after Dawn is running in the El Encino today at Santa Anita… I can’t wait to see her return, she’s been training nicely and I’ve got my fingers crossed for a stellar 4yo campaign… stand clear of the closing doors!

Posted by dana on Jan 13 2008    
Filed Under: Mushka, Dan Ilman, Wrap Up, Santa Anita, Fairgrounds, Steve Asmussen, 4yo, El Gato Malo, 2008, Ravel, 3yo, Slew's Tizzy, Hard Spun, Gambling, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Great Hunter, Dawn After Dawn, Dominican, Racing

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I have to hand it to Swifty, he really called how the race would unfold in his pre-race post.

My two favs where No Biz & Hard Spun and I anchored my race day strategy around them. It was really hard for me to decide if I liked one more than the other, but I was a little concered about No Biz having the extra gears needed to really pull away and win it based his last race in the Wood, while in my mind Hard Spun had done just that in that Lane’s End.

I had a decent amount of money and good coverage of the field in my futures wagers, so I wanted to wait and see the horses and the odds before I made my final decisions.

I was surprised that in that hour before the race when the money was really coming in that the odds really didn’t change that much… I suppose it’s because folks who are derby bettors were really using the odds as a guideline and therefore not shifting odds too much. Another suprise was that we really didn’t get to see the horses gallops so much in the parade, so that didn’t help at all… but I had actually made up my mind before this point anyway.

I’m a big fan of track biases… post postions, jockey, trainer and racing style. Before I’m gonna spend a day at the track (either virtually or literally) I will grab the Track Chart for the previous day and put the Surface, Post Position, Jockey, Running Style this Race, Margin of Win, Trainer and Notes in a spreadsheet. I use this to see if there are any patterns setting up at the track that I can use to my advantage. For the derby, I did this for the four days prior to the Derby, but brought a blank one with me to my “office” (OTB restaurant) and filled in as the day went on.

Post position number 7 was hot as the track dried out, there 2 wins in a row on the 2 dirt races prior to the derby (and one on the turf race right before the derby, which is more coincidental than anything). Street Sense had the 7th postion. In my futures wagers post I noted my concern about Street Sense needing a perfect trip to really get the job done, and this bias made me think he stood a really good chance of getting a perfect trip.

Also going on that day was that Rafael Bejarano had won 4 races already! He was riding Dominican in the Derby and while probably a product of his preference for polytrack, he had beaten Street Sense in the Blue Grass a few weeks ago. I had Dominican in my futures and he had a crappy post position but 4 wins was nothing to sneeze at.

So, here’s what I did, and I had no idea what I was going to end up doing when I left my apartment in the morning (and really not until about 8th race on the card).

$10 Exacta Box of Street Sense with Dominican, No Biz and Hard Spun
$60 total, payed $477 (after OTB cut)

$20 to Win on No Biz & Hard Spun

$6 Across the Board on Dominican - $18 Total.

I also was up $72 on the day going into the race so I ended up being up $400 on the day. There were some really nice races on the under card… loved the Humana Distaff, not only because I had Hysterical Lady (thanks to her 7th post position AND having Bejarano as the jock), but because there were some really talented fillies and mares in that race! And, speaking of fillies and mares, it’s too bad Dawn After Dawn got so stuck in traffic in the Oaks, there’s no way should could have caught Rags to Riches, but she definitely could have showed and maybe could have placed. Did I mention that I LOVE horse racing?

Posted by dana on May 06 2007    
Filed Under: Biases, Rafael Bejarano, Dominican, Hysterical Lady, Dawn After Dawn, Kentucky Derby, 2007, Triple Crown, Derby Trail, Hard Spun, Wagering, Wooo!, Street Sense, Curlin, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Rags to Riches, Racing

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My strategy for the 3rd pool was to basically bet against Curlin, Street Sense & Circular Quay (and watch them win, place and show on Derby day).

The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?

As for Street Sense, he seems to need precise placement to really get the job done. While Circular Quay overcame a potential huge disaster in the Risen Star and finished well, I’ve never had a gut feeling for him.

$10 on:
No Biz - while somewhat goofy, I think he’s probably the horse to beat
Hard Spun - the only teeny tiny reservation I have about him is that he hasn’t beaten, or run against, any of the favs
Scat Daddy - he’s so gutsy!
Tiago - if he performs like his last race, watch out

$8 on:
Great Hunter - looked to me like he got stuck in traffic in the Blue Grass, he’s beaten both Street Sense & Circular Quay

$6 on:
Cowtown Cat - ran great his last 2 races
Domincan - can’t believe his odds didn’t lower more
All Other 2 year olds - you never know

$2 on:
Officer Rocket - even though his showing was poor in the Arkansas Derby, he’s beaten Teufelsberg, Hard Spun & Street Sense!
Teuflesberg - he’s beaten Hard Spun and despite his incredibly slow pace was pretty game in the stretch during the Blue Grass, I think he’ll do better when he’s not the pacesetter.

I also put some money on the Oaks, I haven’t been following the Ladies too closely (that will change next year), but here’s what I did:

$4 on:
Boca Grande
Octave

$2 on:
Autobahn Girl
Dawn After Dawn
Dream Rush
Moonee Ponds

Posted by dana on Apr 16 2007    
Filed Under: Teuflesburg, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Octave, Autobahn Girl, 2007, Dream Rush, Dawn After Dawn, Dominican, Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Tiago, Triple Crown, Derby Trail, Wagering

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