Happy First Saturday in May! To be honest, I’m a having a little trouble getting jazzed about today with the late scratch of I Want Revenge after all the other defections and breathtaking splendor of Rachel Alexandra being wasted on connections that see the Triple Crown only as a function of showcasing stallions. Talk about a bring down, at least they’re out and proud about it and not trying to pretend that it determines the best 3yo in training… I’ll give them that.

Moving on, another reason why I’m having a hard time getting jazzed is that I felt there was more value apparent in the Oaks card, such as my picks of Miss Isella and Bullsbay, than I can find today. That doesn’t mean I’m not going to try!

Kodiak Kowboy looks tough to beat in the Churchill Down, this is his distance and if the track is still sloppy or off I might single him in any multi-race wagers. An acception to that would be Accredit who should benefit from the added distance… leave him off at your own risk. The Roundhouse is an interesting long shot to me as he’s improving and has placed to Kodiak Kowboy in the past (although he was the fav in the race).

Update: Accredit for the win! Still alive in the Pick 6 and Pick 3. The Roundhouse got up for the 3rd, was really hoping he could get place as I had a little exacta box of the two. Kodiak Kowboy was hard ridden half way through, not his day.

The Eight Belles (nee La Troienne) is a little tough. I’ll go with Just Jenda here but will throw in Warrior Maid and Lady’s Laughter for some fun. Warrior Maid is cutting back to a distance that suits her and has done well on the second off and Lady’s Laughter is more of hunch play than anything. She’s won at a mile on the dirt and placed by a neck to Stone Legacy, who was only 20 or so lengths behind the 2009 Triple Crown winner yesterday. I’m having trouble getting jazzed about Four Gifts as the favorite but the distance should suit her and she’s reunited with her winning jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, which is always something to take note of.

Update: Ugh, Four Gifts beats Just Jenda and leaves me playing for 5 of 6 in the Pick 6. Warrior Maid gets third. Oh, I’m also out of the Pick 3 now too, damn. Time to order pizza!

I really liked Ballymore Lady in the Distaff Turf Mile (look, a race that’s still called Distaff!! ok, maybe my mood is lifting) but I’ll use Elusive Lady, Visit and Lemon Chiffon. I do like Tizaquenna but wonder if she needs to sets the slow pace to win on the turf? I’m not sure that’s going to happen with Rasierra in the race so I’ll stick with my other 3.

Update: Guess that answers that question about Tizaqueena, she can sit off the pace and win! Dawn After Dawn, who looked ready to rock in the parade, hung tough for second while Lemon Chiffon was third. It looked to me like Smith struck Elusive Lady with his whip in the stretch when as he passed with Lemon Chiffon. Elusive Lady, my pick, definitely stopped.

I’m looking forward to betting against Informed Decision in the Humana Distaff, but will not leave her off any multi-race tickets. She hasn’t fared as well switching from synthetic to dirt and Secret Gypsy and Game Face look tough.

Update: I only played a small exacta of Royal Michelle over a few horses because she looked really good in the parade but Informed Decision blew by the rest of the field in the stretch. Naturally I left her off my desperation Pick 3. I think my frat boy neighbors are having a Derby party, maybe I should ask them who they like, ugh!

Before I handicapped the Woodford Reserve I thought I might single Einstein, but regardless of the fact that that Einstein loves the distance and surface combo, Proudinsky and Zambezi Sun are interesting and should do well on the softer turf. Proudinsky is on a roll and training well for Bobby Frankel while Zambezi Sun should finally show what European turf class is about after running on concrete turf and then poly out in Cali. This one should be interesting. After just watching the first turf race of the day, the outside post should also be helpful to Zambezi Sun and Einstein.

Update: As it turns out, I could have singled Einstein. What a race! Very thrilling stretch battle with Einstein getting up in time to beat a very game Cowboy Cal. At least I’m alive in the double. It’s now confirmed that my neighbors are having a Derby party, they’re all dressed up and when their door opened I heard someone explaining what Quinella is.

And now for the big one, the breeding showcase, the Stallion Derby! Like many a player my pick to win is Friesan Fire. I took me until now to really settle on that as my official pick. I almost, ALMOST went with Desert Party.

My A-Team, top 3 are: Friesan Fire / Desert Party / Papa Clem. I would not be surprised to see any of those three win. I will definitely have tri and exact boxes of those three + win bets on Desert Party and Papa Clem (Friesan Fire’s odds will probably be too low for me for a win bet… but if he looks good, who knows!).

I’ll also use Musket Man and Summer Bird. I may do a $1 3/5/all ticket ($204) but am not entirely sure yet. I also ready have some interesting live futuracta tickets with Friesan Fire on top so I’ll wait to see the parade and spend the rest of the afternoon trying to figure out how to construct my tickets.

Good luck, let’s get them all home safe and may the best stallion win!

Update: I had a brutal day at the windows but as it turns out, the only gelding in the field won… take that “Stallion Derby”!

Posted by dana on May 02 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Einstein, Picks, Shaun Bridgmohan, Friesan Fire, Desert Party, Pick 3, I Want Revenge, Rachel Alexandra, Churchill Downs, Trifecta, Bobby Frankel, Handicapping, Derby Trail, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Larry Jones, Kentucky Derby, Exacta, Pick 6, Pick 4, Racing

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Whether you geek out or not, here’s hoping you cash a ticket or two (KumamotoMark)

It’s that time of year… time to geek out! There are a million angles and data points to obsess over and consider when selecting your Derby date, and the fun is just beginning!

Over at DRF Crist puts together a couple of interesting Google docs comparing last year’s crop to this years in terms of number of repeat wins and BSFs. Kennedy has been looking at speed and home court advantage. DRF has compiled a fantastic resource for all things Derby Prep (thanks Kevin!), and these are just a few instances of stuff to geek out on!

No time to obsess over data or compile that giant spreadsheet? I think I can help.

I made a smart ass tweet about my inner 12yo wanting Parade Clown to win the Derby, which elicited this reply from Miss Railbird.

The inner 12YO trifecta: Parade Clown, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy. All that’s needed is a hot dog to make day complete.

Naturally, this took me down the rabbit hole of silly name combos:

Spiteful Diva Exacta Box:
Big Drama / I Want Revenge
(ok, Big Drama is pointed to the Preakness, you may have to hold that one for a few weeks)

Military Heritage Exacta Box:
Musket Man / General Quarters

Booty Call Exacta Box (NSFW):
Mr. Hot Stuff / Giant Oak

Air Force One Exacta Box:
Flying Private / General Quarters

Too Hot to Handle Exacta Box:
Friesan Fire / Mr. Hotstuff

Daddy was a Landscaper Exacta Box:
Papa Clem / Giant Oak

Neighborhoodies Exacta Box:
Quality Road / West Side Bernie

WWII Exacta Box:
General Quarters / Dunkirk

Oompa-Loompa Exacta Box:
Win Willy / Chocolate Candy

Royal Bondage Exacta Box:
Regal Ransom / Hold Me Back

Vegas Frat Boy Exacta Box:
Desert Party / General Quarters

Around the Way Degenerates Exacta Box:
Papa Clem / West Side Bernie

No doubt there are plenty of other possibilities, especially as the field of 2009 Kentucky Derby contenders comes into focus!

Posted by dana on Apr 17 2009    
Filed Under: Desert Party, Dunkirk, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, General Quarters, Papa Clem, Twitter, Giant Oak, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, Exacta, Churchill Downs, Friesan Fire, 2009, Racing

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It isn’t easy finding the right date for the big dance. (ronstarr64)

Sure, winging it every week over at the Paulick Derby Index is fun, but I don’t have any fancy system or giant homegrown matrix to evaluate this year’s Derby hopefuls. The analytic part of me has been berating myself for not putting together some slick way to arrive at my rankings while the overwhelmed with work side of me says “f you” to the analytic side. Nice!

But back to the Derby hopefuls for a moment, rather than try to pretend like I have any kind of justification or process for my rankings, I’ll just stick to what’s worked for me in the past.

Let’s face it, we know just enough about our Derby suitors to start some serious speculation. Have you been writing The Pamplemousse over and over again in your notebook? Did your mom totally yell at your for doodling I Want Revenge on your new sneakers? Join the club… and welcome to the first installment of Derby Dating 2009, I Saw You in the Hallway!

And because I can’t improve on last year’s intro twirl…

Bandwagon jumpers, believers, non-believers, and hype haters… we’re all looking for the same thing, right? To fall in love. But we’re skeptics… hurt so many times in the past, afraid to open our hearts again and be made a fool of. So we’re cautious, asking our intendeds to jump through hoop after hoop after hoop before we’ll say with certainty “I love [horse name]!”.

Maybe I don’t believe in monogamy… I believe it’s ok to love one and bet on another, or even multiple others! I like to have an open relationship with a horse. I may love you with all of my heart, but if your odds are too low I’m probably not going to bet on you. Sorry honey!

It’s close enough to the big dance now that I can start to evaluate my Derby suitors. For the most part I’ve seen enough to know who’s just a fleeting interest and who’s got some real potential.

Just a crush? Let’s be friends? Or I really think we could be something special… only time will tell! Until then, here’s how they’re stacking for me.

Stardom Bound:
It’s no secret that I prefer the ladies and with lookers like this roaming the halls is it any wonder? She’s got it all… strength, class, heart and beauty! But like all smart kids who rocket to the top of their class early, she’s gonna have to buckle down now that others are catching up with her. And then there’s that small question of dirt. I know she can do it, she’s dreamy!

Freisan Fire
But then there’s this guy, over shadowed by his more popular stable mate, minding his own business and clearly not napping in study hall. He certainly has been looking hot lately, Old Fashioned who? Is he summa cum laude this year? Perhaps…

Old Fashioned:
Maybe now that his perfect reputation is tarnished he can relax a bit… he’s been chasing some wicked paces lately! I guess he hasn’t seen the after school special about keeping up with the fast kids only causing trouble in the end. If he sticks to his game plan and runs his own race, he’ll be fine. Good thing he’s got a good coach!

I Want Revenge
Moving in the middle of the school worked out great for this guy! He can go the distance, sitting off a hot pace while throwing in a little duel to boot. Sweet! Hopefully he can do the same thing as kids the bigger and more tough too. But what about that green rider with a lot to prove? There was some speculation at the parent/teacher conference about whether this could be his undoing.

Quality Road
It’s hard not to like like this guy after his last performance, rating beautifully off a hot pace and putting away a somewhat accomplished field. But I want to see if he can go the distance before I start sending signals that I’m really interested.

Desert Party
It’s always a bummer when a hottie gets shipped to boarding school. We keep hearing that he’s doing well and he definitely looked great the last time we all saw him. Do those fancy boarding schools really prepare students for the real world? I hope so!

Imperial Council
I only caught a glimpse of this fine looking fellow’s last performance but he sure did look promising darting in front of Mr. Fantasy in the last moment to catch second. Needless to say, I want to see more!

Pioneerof The Nile:
Here’s a guy that’s hard not to like but call me old fashioned, I want to make sure they like the dirt before I can give my heart away. Obviously I’ve made an exception for my beloved, Stardom Bound… she’s dreamy!

The Pamplemousse:
There’s always a hot guy at a neighboring school that everyone is crazy about, and I can see why. But the big dance isn’t at his school and he’s not going to have the home court advantage. How good will he look then?

Theregoesjojo:
His name is fun to say and he’s always near by but not quite when you want him to be. I don’t know, I think he could turn out to be big dance material.

Beethoven:
Is he putting it all together or falling apart? I can’t tell. I think he’s probably got it going on but only time will tell. I hope time tells soon!

Dunkirk:
Dunkirk, Dunkirk, Dunkirk… why do I keep hearing this name? I haven’t really seen him yet but so many people are totally saving a seat in the cafeteria for him. Whatever, I’ll wait and see what the deal is when he actually shows up, it’s not like there’s no one else to be interested in.

Rachel Alexandra:
I’m pretty sure I’m not giving this gorgeous thing a fair shot out of loyalty to my dreamy beloved. But quite frankly Rachel, I’m a little afraid who know who might kick my you know what if she found out I thought you were hot! Let’s put this way, I’ve got my eye on you… did you get that note I left in your locker?

Papa Clem:
I’m glad to see your parents had the sense to switch schools but I still can’t tell if you fit in or not. I’ll just give you a chance to get settled in and see what you’ve got next time out.

West Side Bernie:
I like this guy’s style, he knows he’s already got a spot at the big dance if he wants it so he doesn’t have to sweat it like the others. The only thing he has to do is stay focused on himself… and that kind of cool confidence is mighty attractive! The only problem is since he never comes to class we can’t really get a good look at him. Is he just another pretty face or could he be the real deal? We should know more Saturday… and by the way, thumbs up on the jockey change!

Chocolate Candy:
Mmmm, candy. Yes, please! Wait, it’s a horse? Ok, I guess I’ll wait and see what his deal is. I had no idea. I hope he’s hot!

Mr. Hotstuff & Mr. Fantasy:
Is that really your name? Yeah right!

Mafaaz:
Accents are totally hot. Is he cute?

Hello Broadway:
Hello, turf? Maybe he should follow in his half-brothers footsteps and try the turf. Even though I don’t want to go to the dance with him, I’d definitely be seen in the hallway with him, you know, later in the year.

Flying Pegasus:
He would so totally be on my “Next Stop, Like” list if his connections hadn’t taken him off the trail. I was willing to give him one more shot given the slop last out. Oh well, I’ll see you over the summer hot stuff!

I caught a little flack last year, and rightfully so, for not also doing an Oaks Dating counterpart. So this year I’ll be channeling my inner-tween puppy love style of evaluation towards the fillies… look for “Oaks Dating 2009, I’m Coming Out” soon!

Posted by dana on Mar 19 2009    
Filed Under: Quality Road, Desert Party, Rachel Alexandra, I Want Revenge, Derby/Oaks Dating, Dunkirk, Old Fashioned, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, 2009, Stardom Bound, Friesan Fire, Racing

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