A game Circular Quay training with Pleasant Strike at Belmont October 2006 (Sarah K. Andrew)

My apologies for all the typos in my rush job of a picks post… as usual I waited just a bit too long to before starting the post, not that unlike Evening Attire out of the gate!

While I didn’t have a stellar day (I’ve had worse), I did manage to cash 2 tickets, predict Daytona would show, Pyro would win and unexpectedly got to see a glimmer of hope for the handicap division!

As I feared, Euroears was the real deal… and an impressive real deal at that. I’m looking to forward to seeing him again, no doubt in graded company.

The New Orleans Handicap was both annoying and fantastic. During the parade I had noticed that Circular Quay looked great, really sharp and ready to go… Brass Hat on the other hand looked like he was ready for a nap. I literally laughed out loud but decided to keep with my plan (like an idiot), which was to box Silver Lord (who dumped his rider out of the gate) and Brass Hat… end annoying part.

With no Silver Lord it was Grasshopper and Magna Graduate setting the fractions. At one point Magna Graduate took over but a hard held Circular Quay was uncorked at the top of the stretch and the fantastic part of the race unfurled! What a stretch duel, going back and forth between them… Circular Quay is back on form!

It was fitting that his win came on the same day as the Louisiana Derby, the site of his last victory. As the guy beside me said, “now maybe Pletcher won’t be afraid to run him at two turns.” I should also mention that I had Reporting for Duty across the board, which didn’t even pay for the ticket since he showed (I didn’t really think that one through… back to annoying).

Moving on, I overlooked the winner of the Mervyn Muniz but had noted that he liked yielding turf and had won off taking a month off. I did have French Beret across the board, which significantly cut into my loses and as predicted Daytona set the fractions and then dropped. It looked like French Beret could have caught Proudinsky with a bit more distance.

For fun I boxed Acacia and Wisconsin Girl… what if Indian Blessing and Proud Spell had unseated their riders too? Go Proud Spell! I thought she would do it in the Silverbulletday but she did it today and she did it with authority.

As for the Louisiana Derby, I’m sure I’m not alone in saying that I would wagered differently had I thought J Be K would rate against soft fractions. I dismissed both My Pal Charlie and Yankee Bravo thinking that they needed a slower pace to perform well. At least I can take some solace in getting that right! Instead I put Pyro over Blackberry Road and Unbridled Vicar thinking they would benefit from a fast pace. Ugh. I also exacta boxed J Be K, Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati… basically my wildcard box.

Losing tickets aside, Pyro turned in a nice performance… I can’t wait to see him and War Pass duke it out! I’m willing to give Take of Ekati and Majestic Warrior another race, that wasn’t exactly the easiest spot for a debut.

Posted by dana on Mar 08 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, Majestic Warrior, Fairgrounds, 2008, Proud Spell, Indian Blessing, Sarah K. Andrew, Grasshopper, Derby Trail, Gambling, Handicapping, Circular Quay, Come Back, Racing

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Brass Hat winning the Mass Cap (Imfedore)

I was finally able to do some handicapping this morning and am off to “the office” to play the Fairgrounds card. Things over at Take Back The Race are progressing nicely, it’s really great to read all the comments. I’ll be posting some more banners here for folks to grab and display later this weekend… on to the picks!

Euroears looks tough and Noonmark looks promising but I’m going to go with Semephore Man. He’s held his own with both Bordonaro and Diabolical (who just crushed at Nad Al Sheba). His works are also fantastic! My questions about him are can he ship and can he rate? He’s definitely the horse for the distance and I’m gonna take my shot with him. King of the Roxy is a wild card to me here, he should do well at the distance and he’s won off a break so I may use him too.

Grasshopper looks tough to beat, but you know I’m gonna try… and I’m gonna try with Brass Hat! I think the pace will be on the slow side with Silver Lord leading the way and Brass Hat is the only one, aside from Grasshopper, who has done well off a slow pace. I would consider Magna Graduate but I think he needs a faster pace. Circular Quay is a bit of wild card but I’m hoping he takes some sentimental money (but I’m sure Brass Hat will too). Reporting for Duty has put in two nice efforts and could do well off a soft pace too.

I love a turf race when it’s soft! I liked Daytona last out and of course think he has a shot here but I really like Brilliant and Fracas. Both like it soft and both have gone up against some stiff competition. I love Brilliant’s odds and his last race Saratoga was on rock hard turf so I’m expecting him to really improve here + he’s improved off a break in the past. Fracas training pattern looks like he might run a big one + he’s placed to Dylan Thomas and likes it soft.

I’m taking a pass on the Fairground Oaks, it’s either gonna be Indian Blessing or Proud Spell, take your pick. If it’s one of the other two I’ll be supremely bummed that I didn’t have her.

Finally, a Derby prep with some pace! I’m not sure if what I’m gonna do here because Take of Ekati and Majestic Warrior are big wild cards. Both have been training well and will benefit from J Be K’s pace, as will Pyro. The pace should also help Unbridled Vicar and Blackberry Road so who knows! I think Pyro will win it but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the aforementioned colts won. I’m not sure Stevil, My Pal Charlie or Yankee Bravo can handle what looks to be a fast pace.

Best of luck to all!

Posted by dana on Mar 08 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Fairgrounds, Picks, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell, Take Back the Race, Pyro, Majestic Warrior, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Circular Quay, Turf, Grasshopper, 3yo, Racing

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Daytona & Mike Smith winning the San Gabriel, can they do it again this weekend? (Charles Pravata)

Given the insanity of the west coast, I decided to only focus on Fairgrounds this weekend.

A little while ago I was eating my lunch in front of the OTB channel. It was just before the 5th race at Aqueduct. I thought the #1 horse, Boggy Creek Dancer, looked really good in the parade, very calm and self assured. The rest of them looked a little too antsy. I wasn’t surprised at BCD’s long odds as I’ve seen him race before, but he did look really good.

In the stretch it looked like the #9, Majestic Melody, really had it, sitting off the pace and coming on with a nice run. Out of nowhere Boggy Creek Dancer flew by the rest of the field to win by a couple of lengths and pay $40.20. I took this as a hopeful sign for the rest of my day!

I’m betting against Grasshopper here. I never bought the hype about him as the Street Sense he placed to in the Travers was not the same Street Sense that won the Derby (as evidenced by his miserable BC performance).

I like Silver Lord and Magna Graduate in that order, I may box them but since they’re both current at 3-1 with 15 minutes to post, I may take a pass. (I just boxed them, wish me luck… Note: Grasshopper just crushed the field by 3 lengths and took me out of the P4, but at least Silver Lord beat Magna Graduate!).

This was the toughest one for me and I went deep on my Pick 4 here, but could have actually gone deeper. Better Talk Now is clearly is a stand out, however he doesn’t do well off a lay off (with the exception of winning the Dixie after bombing in Japan). I’m including him in my P4, but won’t bet him in the race.

I like Daytona but have no idea how he’ll ship or if he’ll like the turf at Fairgrounds. I think he’ll control the pace, which should be good for him. Silverfoot is interesting to me, the 8yo missed last year and in his return race looked game but got caught in traffic, I think he could improve. Another interesting one is Baby First, he ran a nice race last out as his first in North America and will probably improve as well. From what I can tell Inca King is due for a regression after 3 wins and I’m pretty sure since I left him off my P4 that he’ll go wire to wire. (Note: that really doesn’t matter now, does it?) I also think Sterwins is worth a look, I think he’ll like the distance more than French Beret and can probably do the best on what I’m guessing will be a slowish pace.

It’s hard to go against Indian Blessing, but at those odds I’m going to try…although I did I have her singled on one of my loosing P4 tickets. I can’t tell if she wasn’t fond of the Santa Anita surface last out or if it really was a distance issue. The more I think about it the more I lean towards the surface because she handled the distance so beautifully in the BC. It looks to me like High Surf and possibly even Miss Missile could give her some pressure. Let’s say for the sake of argument that it was a distance issue last out, in that case both Proud Spell and Highest Class interest me.

Proud Spell is pretty obvious but you might wonder why I would say Highest Class over Jolie the Cat, particularly when Jolie the Cat beat Highest Class last out. Distance & pace. Highest Class had 2 wins at the distance before cutting back in the Tiffany Lass, also Jolie the Cat had the slow pace all to herself, that won’t the be case today. Even throwing out the unnaturally fast fractions she set at Santa Anita, most of these horses haven’t seen anything like a pace that Indian Blessing can set. That being said, Proud Spell has shown she can do it from off a fast pace and I’m interested to see what Highest Class will do here.

A.K.A, the paceless wonder. It looks like it’s gonna be up to The Darp to set the pace again although he might get some help from Signature Move. This does not bode well for Blackberry Road, Visionaire and even Pyro, but looks great for Z Fortune and possibly Unbridled Vicar.

You can’t go wrong with Curlin as your morning training partner so I’m still convinced Pyro has a shot even if the pace isn’t so hot. Unbridled Vicar is my wise guy play here, I think the slow pace won’t be as negative for him as it will be for some of the others plus I wonder if he could have won his last out at the distance, and that was also a slow pace.

Daytona just won the Fairground Handicap and Sterwins showed in a photo to Jazz Quest, although I boxed Silver Foot and Sterwins. I just can’t deal with 2-1 odds… always the value player! Best of luck to all!

Posted by dana on Feb 09 2008    
Filed Under: Fairgrounds, Aqueduct, 2008, Picks, Proud Spell, Pyro, Charles Pravata, Curlin, Street Sense, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Grasshopper, Racing

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