All the contenders came out of the Belmont in a good shape. There’s a blurb about each of them… and I was happy to find out a little something about Imawildandcrazyguy. Turns out the pace was a killer for him.

I was also a little sad to see that Slew’s Tizzy had a bad time in the barn. As someone who does not enjoy a crowd, I understand how rattling it can be to not get a little quiet time when needing to prepare… hey, maybe that’s why I did all betting and no cashing! Still not complaining, being a part of that race was more thrilling than any win I’ve had so far.

[NTRA]

Posted by dana on Jun 10 2007    
Filed Under: Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, 2007, Triple Crown, Slew's Tizzy, Belmont

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I love Tom Durkin, the Belmont track announcer. His sense of timing and drama mixed with his Don Pardo-like stylings are something to behold. I was lucky enough to be in the grandstands yesterday, and let me just say that I have never, ever, ever publicly jumped up & down, hooted & hollered and generally engaged in “sports fan” behavior the way I did yesterday. AND, I didn’t have a winning ticket all day. As a matter of fact, I stunk on ice… hideous. But it was the best day I ever had at the track.

Getting back to Tom Durkin, even on a quiet day at Belmont you can’t hear the announcer, so I had to wait until I watched the race replay (about 15 times now and I’m not even close to being done) to really hear the genius of his narration. Not like that race needed any help but his stretch call was AMAZING!

I’m SOOO happy she won! Interesting because she sort of mimicked Curlin’s Preakness run… she came wide to his inside trip and Curlin stumbled at the gate in the Preakness as well. What a great Triple Crown. It’s shame that casual fans are only interested when a Triple Crown winner is on the line. I feel like I saw some of the greatest horse racing of our time in these three races!

So what happened to everyone else? I’m not surprised by Slew’s Tizzy’s run given that he had never run over a mile and sixteenth… don’t think it’s anything against him. Also, I thought CP West ran pretty nicely. If I had had Tiago in my superfecta box instead of Imawildandcrazyguy, it would have been an even better day… but as I like to say “that’s why they call it gambling.”

Not sure what happened to IWCG and haven’t had much luck digging anything up. Not sure if the glacial pace kept him from getting his motor running or if his run in the derby was an anomaly as opposed to the beginning of something interesting. I really liked his run in the Risen Star and still have some hopes for him in more appropriate company.

As for Hard Spun, I’m a little baffled. He was running really erratically at the start. One report said he was a little rank and giving Gomez a bit of a tough time. Another report said that Larry Jones thought the plan was to keep the pace where it was but to have him in the lead. Gomez was quoted as saying that he thought everything was going well but when it came down to it HS didn’t have any run. One thing I’ve noticed about HS is that he seems to do best when he’s left to his own devices (Preakness notwithstanding, although I still think that was a combo platter of misfortune). Maybe now they’ll have to run him as a 4 year old to get his good name back (although I think he gave it his all)! A girl can dream… and count me in the “fans for seeing HS run a mile on the turf” club.

The undercard was great too! I loved Papi Chullo’s run in the third. Can’t wait to see more of him with his new connections and Cotton Blossom had a great run in the Just a Game!

Tom Durkin had another great moment in the True North as Keyed Entry was blowing Bordonaro’s chances (and mine) by bringing him really wide, “Keyed Entry is taking Bordonaro out to the Cross Island Parkway”.

Ah Belmont, I love you so (and will be back to see Invasor in a few weeks!!).

Posted by dana on Jun 10 2007    
Filed Under: CP West, Belmont Stakes, 2007, Imawildandcrazyguy, Tom Durkin, Cotton Blossom, Papi Chullo, Larry Jones, Garrett Gomez, Hard Spun, Wooo!, Curlin, Rags to Riches, Invasor, Slew's Tizzy, That's Why They Call it Gambling

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While it’s hard for me to pick a winner in this group, here are my thoughts on each of horses in order by post position.

Imawildandcrazyguy:
His race in the Derby was IM-pressive. Everyone was making such a big deal about Street Sense closing from 19. IWCG closed from 20th a good 2 lengths behind SS’s 19th, came 10 wide to SS’s inside trip and was still coming after the finish line. His odds are a gift.

Tiago:
I really like this horse and had him across the board when he pulled an upset in the Santa Anita Derby. His gallop out at the Derby was fantastic. I wish his odds were closer to IWCG’s. I think depending on the on the pace scenario you’ll see him on the board. He will definitely be included in my tri or exacta boxes.

Curlin:
Really hard not to like him. I’ve read a couple of reports that he looks really good right now. I’ve also read a lot of postulating that he’ll suffer muscle fatigue because he’s such a big boy. I’m tending to favor fresh horses in this race and while I’m new to the sport and horses in general, I tend to think there’s something to the muscle fatigue theory… a mile and half is a long ass race. His Preakness performance was probably one of the best performances we’ll see in a long time, from him or anyone else… and that’s got it take it out of him.

CP West:
Swifty thought he was one to watch at the Preakness and I didn’t pay that any mind, turns out he ran a great race! He hung tough with Hard Spun through the stretch and didn’t loose any ground (he didn’t gain any either). I think he could bring up the end of a superfecta although I’m not sure I’m including him.

Slew’s Tizzy:
Here’s another horse I like a lot. With the blinker change and jock upgrade I had him across the board in his stunning Lexington upset (and was jumping up & down like a crazy person alone in my apartment watching the OTB channel when it was clear no one was gonna catch him in the stretch. This was was the highest point of my ‘long shot across the board’ approach thus far). What I like about his last 2 races was that he (like Rags to Riches) was pulling away each time (albeit, not as much as her). I think he’s got shot if Hard Spun doesn’t get too far away from him and HS’s pace is too fast, albeit a long shot. Love his odds and will be including him in some tris + perhaps an across the board.

Hard Spun:
I love this horse and while it would make me extremely happy to see him win, I think there are two distinct scenarios. If he keeps the pace under control I think he’ll probably win it, and maybe with authority. I like GG and think he’ll be a good addition to all the things HS has going for him. If he either gets in an upfront speed battle with Slew’s Tizzy (which I hope doesn’t happen) or just plain old sets a fast pace, I think he’ll tire. His breeding suggests he can handle the distance so I think it’s a matter of pace. It’s also worth noting that in the aerial view of the Derby (which I can’t find anymore), in the last few lengths he starts to gain on Street Sense… this also made me think a mile and half could work for him.

Rags to Riches:
I’m so glad she’s running! Her breeding is right on for this distance and she gets a weight advantage as a filly that will serve her well, particularly since she’s as big as they are! She’s run wide almost every race and if you look at her win margins it makes them all the more impressive. There’s no doubt in my mind she’ll be on the board and I think she could win it! If Hard Spun doesn’t pull away, it’s hard for me to call it between Rags to Riches, Imawildandcrazyguy and Tiago.

With that said, my official picks in any order are:
Hard Spun, Rags to Riches, Imawildandcrazyguy & Tiago.

If I had to pick an order:
Imawildandcrazyguy, Rags to Riches, Hard Spun, Tiago.

Best of luck to all!!

Posted by dana on Jun 08 2007    
Filed Under: Garrett Gomez, Handicapping, 2007, Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, CP West, Triple Crown, Tiago, Hard Spun, Wagering, Street Sense, Curlin, Slew's Tizzy, Rags to Riches, Racing

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Article about Bill Kaplan (who I like a lot) and Imawildandcrazyguy’s preps for the Belmont. I think he ran an extremely impressive race in the Derby. He was BEHIND Street Sense in 20th place and closed to 4th on the OUTSIDE. I’m really looking forward to see what he’ll do in the Belmont.

Actually, I really like all the probable Belmont entrants… the top 3 from the last 2, Tiago, Great Hunter, Slew’s Tizzy and Imawildandcrazyguy are contenders as far as I’m concerned… throw Rags to Riches in there and look out!

[NTRA]

Posted by dana on May 25 2007    
Filed Under: Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, Bill Kaplan, 2007, Great Hunter, Slew's Tizzy, Tiago, Rags to Riches

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and then I’m moving on.

On thing that’s made me feel somewhat better about not covering my bets with the winning combo is that of all the experts and bloggers I read, no one predicted the winning combo (although I still should have done a $20 tri box with the three favs, dammit!).

As I’ve noted before, I’m a big fan of biases and I watch them closely. On the day before the Preakness and day of, front runners and stalkers were favored to closers. Only one closer had won the day before, and with the exception of the 4 & 5th races that I didn’t see (because I was in transit to the “office”) front runners and stalkers were winning. Interesting to note because biases, like all other handicapping tools, are not to be taken as the only factor… and as most will tell you, a good horse can overcome anything.

I was re-reading a few of my posts because I was thinking about things I wanted to see about a few of the horses before I became a believer.

From my Derby Futures Wagers post:

“The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?”

Answered: Yes!

I still want to see Street Sense go 3 or 4 wide and weave in and out of horses.

Here’s a gripe… the Pimlico simulcast didn’t have split screen so you couldn’t see what the back of the pack was doing. This is one of most helpful things ever, I felt like I didn’t know what was going on in the race because it was just focused on the front runners. Is this a Magna entertainment thing? I’ll have to look at this more closely. It’s one thing for NBC to not have the split screen, but an OTB simulcast? That’s ridiculous!

Now for the moving on part… rematch! The distance in the Belmont will be very interesting. Swifty thinks Hard Spun won’t run, and he’s probably right. A few interesting additions are going to be Tiago, Imawildandcrazyguy and hopefully Rags to Riches! Tiago & Imawildandcrazyguy will do much better at that distance for sure. I would love to see Rags to Riches win the Belmont!!

Posted by dana on May 20 2007    
Filed Under: 2007, Biases, Handicapping, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, Pimlico, Triple Crown, Tiago, Wagering, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Hard Spun, Street Sense, Rags to Riches, Curlin, Racing

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