Tale of Ekati winning the Wood as my phone flies over the balcony at Aqueduct (Sarah K. Andrew)

Let’s start by examining my proclivity for procrastination. The upsides are clear, I tend to do things I normally wouldn’t like wash dishes, dust bust numerous hairballs from the Home Zoo and post plenty of “interesting content“.

This pathological behavior does, however, have a downside… one of them being that I didn’t end up with enough time to publish a post about why Tale of Ekati was my pick of the day yesterday before I had to run out to catch the A train to the Big A. But we’ll get to that (yes, I’m now going to meta-procrastinate).

Here’s a post I’ve been meaning to write for awhile, “Facebook, it’s not just for the rotten kids”. Of the many social networking sites, Facebook is the only one that “has delivered” for me for anything other than time wasting (don’t get me wrong, it’s great for that!) and proving that you’re a bigger hipster than everyone else.

I met the Hennegan Brothers on Facebook, taken part in many great discussions with people inside the industry, and now hung out with a fun bunch of Fans of Thoroughbred Racing in New York.

Group creator, the fabulous Ernie Munick (giving the thumbs up next Pablo Fragoso), organized the day billed as “Day of Degeneracy” to get people in the group to come out to the track and actually hang out (instead of just post on the group’s wall).

He also arranged for us to have our picture taken in the winner’s circle! I always wondered how to go about getting “Happy Birthday Adam “Swifty” Wiener” in the NYRA program, and now I know… you just call and give them $300! Get a group of 10 folks together and can’t afford not to do it.

Here we are, in all our glory (I’m on the far right… ironic, no?):

Note the title of the picture “Thoroughbred Racing in New York “Facebook”. It also said this in the program! This is what I meant by pioneering an analog/digital mashup… this is no doubt the first time a NYRA program has the word Facebook in it… I love it when worlds collide!

Several of the TBA folks were included in this group, Jessica at Railbird, Teresa at Brooklyn Backstretch and Alan at Left at Gate (who’s not pictured… he was very busy live blogging the whole day).

John stopped by for a few moments in between meeting, greeting and kissing babies to get folks to the premiere in 2 weeks. And of course, Swifty was there (behind Ernie in the Classy & Classic sunglasses)… we wouldn’t miss a chance to be in the winner’s circle, or perhaps more appropriately, the Wiener’s Circle (Swifty = Adam Wiener).

Did I mention it was nice out? Notice us there, no coats. We ended up sitting outside all day in a box right in front of the finish line. We were on the third floor and there was a little balcony right in front of us that was gated. The gate was rail height (about 3 feet?) so at one point Jessica started to climb over it to get a better view of the paddock below. A helpful NYRA employee came over and unlocked it for us, no doubt guessing that it would just be easier than telling us to stop climbing over it all day.

The races were great and the place was packed. When I go to a track, I like to play the card… maybe not every race, but I find it distracting to have to pop over to the TV to watch a race elsewhere and then have my final decision making time eaten into. Surprise, I also procrastinate when it comes to wagering! With this in mind I decided to take pass on playing the bazillion great stakes races not at Aqueduct.

Prior to the Wood I was doing ok, compared to how I’ve been doing on the year I was doing great, but by normal standards I was doing just OK. I had the exacta in the 6th which brought me back to within $4 of being even. I didn’t do anything interesting in the 7th or 8th, although Jessica & Swifty had Temporary Saint in the Excelsior, but the Wood was different story.

I’m always refining my handicapping style, looking for more efficient or productive ways to analyze the data. Some things I’ve started to do recently have really been helpful. I take several passes at all of the horses, in one of those passes I note the predominant running style and type of pace the horse needs to perform well. While looking at this aspect of the Wood, I noted that Tale of Ekati needed a faster pace than he got in Louisiana Derby to do his best.

In another pass I examine the workouts. Is there any pattern, how did they work prior to their last races, have they been training for endurance, speed, etc. My note on Maryfield prior to the BC was “if she fires a bullet work before the race, seriously consider her”… and she did.

Combine Tale of Ekati’s comment line with his recent two works. “Brushed break, no factor” and two handled 4F gate works at 47.2 and 47.4 geared towards increasing his speed out of the gate. I then went to watch the replay of the Louisiana Derby… bingo. He broke very tentatively, got headed and then checked out of the race. Combine all of this with impending speed duel on the front end ensuring a brisk pace and it looked really promising for Take of Ekati.

I also thought the race would set up well for Court Vision, Bill Mott didn’t put Inner Light in to help Take of Ekati! This was one of those rare times when a flash of handicapping insight occurs with my ability to wager correctly. Here’s what I did:

Tale of Ekati to Win
Exacta box of Tale of Ekati & Court Vision
Trifecta box of Tale of Ekati, Court Vision & War Pass
Anak Nakal across the board (I thought he would improve under this pace scenario, and he did, but not enough).

Fast forward to the race… Tale of Ekati broke like a dream (he’s a good student and Barclay Tagg is a good teacher!) and Inner Light was pushing War Pass into fast fractions. Things were all going according to plan. As they came into the stretch War Pass still had a decent lead but Tale of Ekati starts to come on, and come on strong.

As they come to the wire it looks like Tale of Ekati is going to get up in time… we’re all on the balcony jumping up and down, screaming like nuts when I notice something fly out of my inside jacket pocket.

Just as Tale of Ekati is making my day, my attention is turned to the box seats below to see my phone land right behind some unsuspecting guy and what appeared to be his father! It took me a few seconds to realize that Tale of Ekati did indeed win AND that I hit the tri!

I’m also happy to report that not only does my phone still work, it didn’t even have a scratch… and perhaps the best part is it didn’t injure anyone!

As if this all wasn’t great enough, I also managed to get over my fear of betting horses to win. I liked Curlin to win the Classic, Swifty and I spent almost 2 hours the night before discussing the favorites in the classic to compare and contrast each of them. Curlin it was, and at 9/2 did I bet him to win? No. This time, just like Tale of Ekati, I learned from last mistake and corrected it under favorable conditions.

It was a perfect day on many levels… and I was lucky enough to share it with some great folks! Of course it was nice to have a bunch of witnesses to a rare flash of handicapping insight, but the best part by far was that, contrary to what seems to be going on, racing felt very much alive.

Posted by dana on Apr 06 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, TBA, Maryfield, War Pass, Sarah K. Andrew, Aqueduct, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati, Running Style, 2008, Internet, Trifecta, Exacta, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Curlin, Fans, Barclay Tagg, NYRA, Workouts, First Saturday in May, Hennegan Brothers, Come Back, Racing

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So far, everyone I’ve read has mentioned how hard it was to handicap and pick winners… between having all the top horses from each category actually racing against each other, the weather and the track changing how it was playing between the two days, calling it tough might be an understatement.

The weather will most certainly be used to explain why chalk didn’t fare well or long shots hit the board, it’s even being blamed for the lower handle! I wish I could blame the weather for being in the red, but I have only my choices to blame.

Over the past month or so I’ve changed my strategy to include and focus on multi-race wagers. This has actually helped my single race analysis too. I also tried to understand what the probable pace scenario would be, something I never put much effort into until now.

For the most part I’m pleased with my actual handicapping and analysis. I have a few more areas that I want to work on, but overall I feel that I’m a fairly solid and improving handicapper. That being said, I really need to work on turning that into more frequent winning wagers. Something I’m happy to practice!

As for money management, I did really well. I stayed within my bankroll and with planning was able to stretch it out for the entire time. I usually like to use it all, which so far has meant losing it all, but if I’m willing to use it I’m willing to lose it. I spent all but $7 of my bankroll… and since Swifty had a really nice score in the Classic with the Curlin/Hard Spun exacta, dinner was on him!

Here’s what I did over the two days… each race, my picks, how I bet it and my notes on the winners that I didn’t pick.

Friday

F & M Sprint
I had already mentioned that my pick, like many others, was Miss Macy Sue. I also liked Maryfield. The pace scenario was clear and it unfolded as expected, for the most part. I thought La Traviata would hold up a little better but she did put early pressure on Dream Rush, who set wicked fractions and tired in the stretch.

My bets going into it were:
Miss Macy Sue exacta boxed with La Traviata & Dream Rush
Maryfield exacta boxed with La Traviata & Dream Rush
Miss Macy Sue to Win
Maryfield to Win

At the last minute I thought Dream Rush’s odds were a gift and I swapped my win bet on Maryfield to a win bet on Dream Rush.

My notes on Maryfield: Needs a fast pace and will get it, all wins were from outside post position, 3/4 on wet surface. This is one of the few races I handicapped with the Advanced PPs and my note from that was “if she throws another fast bullet as her prep work out, consider her”. Her work out prior to her last win was a 47.1 Hg 1/36, her work prior to this race was 46 Hg 1/34. A full second faster and an impressive time. Needless to say, I felt like an idiot with that last minute decision.

Juvenile Sprint
I didn’t handicap this race or any of the Juvenile races so I had a dime superfecta box of Cannonball, The Leopard, Cherokee Triangle and Prussian and a small win bet on Cannonball. No notes here, just good old fashioned guessing!

Dirt Mile
I also had previously mentioned that I liked Wanderin’ Boy, Gotcha Gold and thought Discreet Cat would improve. I had Corinthian and Xchanger on my possibility list but wasn’t interested in going deep in this race so I kept it simple.

My Bets:
Wanderin’ Boy/Gotcha Gold exacta box
Wanderin’ Boy/Gotcha GoldDiscreet Cat trifecta box

My notes on Corinthian: Can come from on or off the pace, on is better; last cut back produced a win, was training on the Belmont Training track, which for the mile is almost identical to the mile at Monmouth. I also wrote “due for a win?”. Yes.

Saturday

Swifty and I joined forces (and money) to do the Ultra Pick 6 and the late Pick 4. Here’s how we played them, notes on each of the selections with the specific race.

Pick 6:
6th: Honey Rider, Argentina
7th: Midnight Lute, Greg’s Gold
8th: Jeremy, Excellent Art
9th: Unbridled Belle, Lear’s Princess
10th: English Channel, Dylan Thomas
11th: Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, AGS, Curlin

For the Pick 4 we did a series of 16 tickets using the following A/B selections.

8th
A: Jeremy, Excellent Art
B: Trippi’s Storm, Purim

9th
A: Unbridled Belle, Lear’s Princess
B: Indian Vale, Ginger Punch

10th
A: English Channel, Dylan Thomas
B: Shamdinan, Better Talk Now

11th
A: Curlin, AGS
B: Lawyer Ron, Street Sense

On our A/A/A/A ticket, which was double the amount of the rest of the tickets, we also included the B picks for the Classic.

Juveniles
My friend Joan called me on Thursday because she wanted to discuss the juvenile fillies… I told her I was gonna take a pass because it was gonna be hard enough to get through the other races and I didn’t want to squander my bankroll. We still talked about them and she asked me what I thought about Zee Zee. I looked her over and liked what I saw but didn’t understand why she would be running on dirt… I asked Joan, who is very into pedigrees, if the pedigree indicated anything. She couldn’t come up with anything but did have an ah ha moment about Cigar. Bill Mott, Zee Zee’s trainer, also trained Cigar, and Cigar was quickly moved to turf after not fairing well on the dirt. As turfer, Cigar was ok, but he didn’t blossom until Bill Mott moved him back to the dirt… the rest is history. Given this, I was willing to take shot on Zee Zee, particulary given that she went off at 19-1. I put a little win bet on her and had her boxed with Smarty Deb.

I took a pass on the Juvenile males but thought that War Pass and Pyro both looked great in the Champagne. I was really impressed with both of their runs and am looking forward to seeing them in the Derby Preps!

F&M Turf
My long shot pick of the day was Argentina… both of her efforts this year have been good and she had come back from a year off and placed in the Diana! It was a cut back to a distance that she was 3 1-2-0… she had also lost by a head on yielding turf in last year’s Diana. Honey Rider and Passage of Time of my two A picks… I liked Passage of Time slightly better than Honey Rider given her last win was the distance (same for Honey Rider) and that the win prior to that was against colts. She had also won of soft turf. I liked Lahudood as well, but didn’t think she would win.

I wasn’t convinced about Nashoba’s Key… the turf in California is definitely not soft, she’s never shipped and I felt like this field was a tougher bunch for her. She was definitely in my “prove it” category for this race.

My Wagers:
Argentina exacta boxed with Honey Rider & Passage of Time
Lahudood exacta boxed with Honey Rider & Passage of Time

This was the highlight of my wagering day! And I feel like Lahudood really proved herself.

Sprint
I kept it simple in this race with a small win wager on Benny the Bull, I thought he ran strong last time out to Midnight Lute and thought he had the makings of a big race. This was a 3rd off race for him and he’s won on that form cycle before. I was buying into Midnight Lute but thought he might regress off of such a big speed figure and wanted to take a shot with Benny. I also liked Idiot Proof and Greg’s Gold, particularly Greg’s Gold off his last race where he was bottled up and couldn’t get up in time.

My Wagers:
Benny the Bull to win

The Mile
Jeremy and Excellent Art were my two A picks, Excellent Art stood out over Jeremy but I gave the nod the Jeremy because of the post position. In any other weather I would have also like After Market, who was smartly scratched. Trippi’s Storm was also interesting to me given his last race was a cut back to this distance, one he clearly liked, but After Market had spotted him 6lbs. We included Purim in the Pick 4 after After Market scratched, I wasn’t sold that he could reproduce his last race but Swifty liked him and no one else jumped out at me. I also thought Cosmonaut and Kip Deville were interesting but I landed on the other 4.

I’m a huge No Biz fan but felt this really wasn’t his distance… I was routing for him but not wagering on him. All and all I thought he did really well and can’t wait see how he develops. I’m hoping by this time next year he’s a force to be reckoned with on the turf, I think he can do it.

My Wagers:
Trifecta box of Jeremy, Trippi’s Storm, Excellent Art
Exacta box of Jeremy, Trippi’s Story, Excellent Art
Icy Atlantic across the board
Dime Superfecta box of Jeremy, Trippi’s Storm, Excellent Art, Icy Atlantic
Dime Superfecta box of Jeremy, Trippi’s Storm, Excellent Art, Host

My notes on Kip Deville: horse for the distance, improving, good last effort.

Distaff
I thought this was one of the toughest races, other than the classic. I could make arguments for almost all of them. In the end I choose Unbridled Belle and Lear’s Princess as my A picks. I felt Unbridled Belle’s running style would do well, even though at this point early speed was holding up AND there was a LOT of speed in this race. Lear’s Princess work pattern was similar, but a touch below her pattern prior to the Alabama but expected her to keep her form.

For some reason, I threw out the Oaks as an indication of Unbridled Belle’s muddy track performance. I was thinking that the bigger field could have played a part in it too, and that she didn’t really blossom until recently so I went with her improving form. It was interesting to note that both she and Indian Vale had almost identical work patterns to their previous races (not to each other)… clearly a Pletcher training style.

My Wagers:
Exacta Box of Unbridled Bell and Lear’s Princess
Indian Vale exacta boxed to Unbridled Belle and Lear’s Princess
Prop Me Up exacta wheeled to the field
Dime Superfecta of Prop Me Up, Lear’s Princess, Indian Vale, Unbridled Belle

My notes on Ginger Punch: has won on a muddy track but placed 7 lengths behind on sloppy, might get in a speed duel up front, works not as strong as prior to last time out + had a fast bullet prior to last win.

Turf
Here’s one where I really messed up. English Channel was my pick to win but I had both he and Dylan Thomas as my A picks. I liked English Channel better because his last race was monster impressive + the euros weren’t fairing so well. I really also liked Shamdinan because he likes the soft turf… his last win was on soft turf at Arlington. Grand Couturier seemed like the better choice of the two because of his win at the distance but that turf was a hard as a rock and he didn’t fare well on yielding turf.

My Wagers:
WPS on Shamdinan
Trifecta Box of Better Talk Now, English Channel, Dylan Thomas
Exacta of Dylan Thomas over Better Talk Now, English Channel, Shamdinan

Why did I put Dylan Thomas over English Channel? Who knows, I was getting tired and I really didn’t think through it… also, Dylan Thomas looked good. I really rushed through my decision because I think I just wanted to get through it. We were also trying to decide when to get our bets in for the Classic and go out to our seats. After a fairly nomadic day of trying to find a place to settle in, the weather had finally broken so we wanted to at the very least watch the Classic at the track. I rushed my decisions on this race so we could move, Swifty could get a good position in the tunnel to shoot some footage and then we could get out to the track to see the race. By being hasty, I cost myself a potential decent score based on my selections… it wasn’t like I didn’t already pick English Channel, I just missed the right combination. If I would have had used English Channel in the same straight exacta I had with Shamdinan that I had with Dylan Thomas, I would have had a 4 digit winning ticket.

Classic
I’m gonna do a separate post on the Classic (not tonight!). Curlin was my pick to win and Swifty and I spent at least an hour discussing how to decide between AGS & Street Sense as our other A pick, let alone Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun. I’ll post my thought process and ultimate differentiators I used to my decisions in that post… and would love to hear how y’all decided whatever you decided in such a close, competitive field. The way I imagined in the pace scenario it would come down to Curlin and AGS and that’s how I bet it.

My Wagers:
Exacta Box Curlin, AGS
Trifecta Box Curlin, AGS, Lawyer Ron

I have to get over my irrational fear of large win bets, if I would have put the same amount that I wagered as an exacta as a win bet on Curlin, I would have had another 4 digit winning ticket.

Regardless of the sad tragedy (of George Washington, not my wagering missteps), it was an amazing race and I’m thrilled with how it turned out. My beloved Hard Spun ran a spectacular race and Curlin proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s our champion. I’m also really glad that Awesome Gem is a gelding! He had a great race… he’s really been improving and I’m looking to him, and several of the improving 3 year olds (Zanjero, Xchanger, the return of Ravel, Belgravia & Grapelli) to bring a stellar handicap division next year.

More posts to come through the week, but this was my performance in the Breeders’ Cup.

Posted by dana on Oct 28 2007    
Filed Under: Pyro, The Leopard, Discreet Cat, Any Given Saturday, War Pass, Trifecta, English Channel, Money Management, Exacta, Prop Me Up, WPS, Shamdinan, Wrap Up, Honey Rider, Gotcha Gold, Idiot Proof, Maryfield, Jeremy, George Washington, Awesome Gem, Ginger Punch, Indian Vale, Lawyer Ron, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Breeders' Cup, Handicapping, Curlin, Street Sense, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Gambling, Hard Spun, Hystericalady, Dream Rush, Pick 4, Pick 6, Lahudood, Unbridled Belle, Belgravia, Ravel, Lear's Princess, 2007, Xchanger, Racing

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