It isn’t easy finding the right date for the big dance. (ronstarr64)

Sure, winging it every week over at the Paulick Derby Index is fun, but I don’t have any fancy system or giant homegrown matrix to evaluate this year’s Derby hopefuls. The analytic part of me has been berating myself for not putting together some slick way to arrive at my rankings while the overwhelmed with work side of me says “f you” to the analytic side. Nice!

But back to the Derby hopefuls for a moment, rather than try to pretend like I have any kind of justification or process for my rankings, I’ll just stick to what’s worked for me in the past.

Let’s face it, we know just enough about our Derby suitors to start some serious speculation. Have you been writing The Pamplemousse over and over again in your notebook? Did your mom totally yell at your for doodling I Want Revenge on your new sneakers? Join the club… and welcome to the first installment of Derby Dating 2009, I Saw You in the Hallway!

And because I can’t improve on last year’s intro twirl…

Bandwagon jumpers, believers, non-believers, and hype haters… we’re all looking for the same thing, right? To fall in love. But we’re skeptics… hurt so many times in the past, afraid to open our hearts again and be made a fool of. So we’re cautious, asking our intendeds to jump through hoop after hoop after hoop before we’ll say with certainty “I love [horse name]!”.

Maybe I don’t believe in monogamy… I believe it’s ok to love one and bet on another, or even multiple others! I like to have an open relationship with a horse. I may love you with all of my heart, but if your odds are too low I’m probably not going to bet on you. Sorry honey!

It’s close enough to the big dance now that I can start to evaluate my Derby suitors. For the most part I’ve seen enough to know who’s just a fleeting interest and who’s got some real potential.

Just a crush? Let’s be friends? Or I really think we could be something special… only time will tell! Until then, here’s how they’re stacking for me.

Stardom Bound:
It’s no secret that I prefer the ladies and with lookers like this roaming the halls is it any wonder? She’s got it all… strength, class, heart and beauty! But like all smart kids who rocket to the top of their class early, she’s gonna have to buckle down now that others are catching up with her. And then there’s that small question of dirt. I know she can do it, she’s dreamy!

Freisan Fire
But then there’s this guy, over shadowed by his more popular stable mate, minding his own business and clearly not napping in study hall. He certainly has been looking hot lately, Old Fashioned who? Is he summa cum laude this year? Perhaps…

Old Fashioned:
Maybe now that his perfect reputation is tarnished he can relax a bit… he’s been chasing some wicked paces lately! I guess he hasn’t seen the after school special about keeping up with the fast kids only causing trouble in the end. If he sticks to his game plan and runs his own race, he’ll be fine. Good thing he’s got a good coach!

I Want Revenge
Moving in the middle of the school worked out great for this guy! He can go the distance, sitting off a hot pace while throwing in a little duel to boot. Sweet! Hopefully he can do the same thing as kids the bigger and more tough too. But what about that green rider with a lot to prove? There was some speculation at the parent/teacher conference about whether this could be his undoing.

Quality Road
It’s hard not to like like this guy after his last performance, rating beautifully off a hot pace and putting away a somewhat accomplished field. But I want to see if he can go the distance before I start sending signals that I’m really interested.

Desert Party
It’s always a bummer when a hottie gets shipped to boarding school. We keep hearing that he’s doing well and he definitely looked great the last time we all saw him. Do those fancy boarding schools really prepare students for the real world? I hope so!

Imperial Council
I only caught a glimpse of this fine looking fellow’s last performance but he sure did look promising darting in front of Mr. Fantasy in the last moment to catch second. Needless to say, I want to see more!

Pioneerof The Nile:
Here’s a guy that’s hard not to like but call me old fashioned, I want to make sure they like the dirt before I can give my heart away. Obviously I’ve made an exception for my beloved, Stardom Bound… she’s dreamy!

The Pamplemousse:
There’s always a hot guy at a neighboring school that everyone is crazy about, and I can see why. But the big dance isn’t at his school and he’s not going to have the home court advantage. How good will he look then?

Theregoesjojo:
His name is fun to say and he’s always near by but not quite when you want him to be. I don’t know, I think he could turn out to be big dance material.

Beethoven:
Is he putting it all together or falling apart? I can’t tell. I think he’s probably got it going on but only time will tell. I hope time tells soon!

Dunkirk:
Dunkirk, Dunkirk, Dunkirk… why do I keep hearing this name? I haven’t really seen him yet but so many people are totally saving a seat in the cafeteria for him. Whatever, I’ll wait and see what the deal is when he actually shows up, it’s not like there’s no one else to be interested in.

Rachel Alexandra:
I’m pretty sure I’m not giving this gorgeous thing a fair shot out of loyalty to my dreamy beloved. But quite frankly Rachel, I’m a little afraid who know who might kick my you know what if she found out I thought you were hot! Let’s put this way, I’ve got my eye on you… did you get that note I left in your locker?

Papa Clem:
I’m glad to see your parents had the sense to switch schools but I still can’t tell if you fit in or not. I’ll just give you a chance to get settled in and see what you’ve got next time out.

West Side Bernie:
I like this guy’s style, he knows he’s already got a spot at the big dance if he wants it so he doesn’t have to sweat it like the others. The only thing he has to do is stay focused on himself… and that kind of cool confidence is mighty attractive! The only problem is since he never comes to class we can’t really get a good look at him. Is he just another pretty face or could he be the real deal? We should know more Saturday… and by the way, thumbs up on the jockey change!

Chocolate Candy:
Mmmm, candy. Yes, please! Wait, it’s a horse? Ok, I guess I’ll wait and see what his deal is. I had no idea. I hope he’s hot!

Mr. Hotstuff & Mr. Fantasy:
Is that really your name? Yeah right!

Mafaaz:
Accents are totally hot. Is he cute?

Hello Broadway:
Hello, turf? Maybe he should follow in his half-brothers footsteps and try the turf. Even though I don’t want to go to the dance with him, I’d definitely be seen in the hallway with him, you know, later in the year.

Flying Pegasus:
He would so totally be on my “Next Stop, Like” list if his connections hadn’t taken him off the trail. I was willing to give him one more shot given the slop last out. Oh well, I’ll see you over the summer hot stuff!

I caught a little flack last year, and rightfully so, for not also doing an Oaks Dating counterpart. So this year I’ll be channeling my inner-tween puppy love style of evaluation towards the fillies… look for “Oaks Dating 2009, I’m Coming Out” soon!

Posted by dana on Mar 19 2009    
Filed Under: Quality Road, Desert Party, Rachel Alexandra, I Want Revenge, Derby/Oaks Dating, Dunkirk, Old Fashioned, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, 2009, Stardom Bound, Friesan Fire, Racing

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Stardom Bound and Mike Smith in the parade prior to the SA Oaks (Charles Pravata)

During the conversation last week regarding Stardom Bound, I asked “I wonder if Patena turns out to be a stinker if they’ll get reinvested in SB in the Derby?”…. Val wonders the same thing.

Moments after the LA Derby I asked the tweet-o-sphere:

Who thinks IEAH will start making noise about SB on the Derby trail now that Patena doesn’t look like a contender? I do.

The results were mixed…

I thought they should have kept up the SB noise in the first place. That last race impressed, rather than disappointed, me.

either that or they’ll buy their way in with some other horse.

I don’t

Regardless of whether you think Stardom Bound should be on the Kentucky Derby trail or not (I do), what do you think IEAH will do? Will they lay low and then announce that Stardom Bound is back on the Derby Trail if she performs well in the Ashland? Will they give Patena another shot given the slop or will they just buy another Derby hopeful (Win Willy?? Musket Man?)?

Apologies to the 8 of you who voted in my Bravo poll, it wasn’t the most well crafted poll… if the person who thinks there’s not a single good about the Oaks being on Bravo concedes that any coverage is better than no coverage then I suppose there really isn’t much use in asking!

Posted by dana on Mar 15 2009    
Filed Under: Stardom Bound, Richard Dutrow, Iavarone, Twitter, 2009, Kentucky Oaks, Derby Trail, Bobby Frankel, Kentucky Derby, Charles Pravata, Racing

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The Derby party is over for Stardom Bound as her connections decide to point her to the Ashland and then the Oaks. I’m no trainer but doesn’t that seem like a quick decision? I’m also a little sad that they seem to have lost confidence in her. Plenty of folks have pointed out that her colleagues are just now catching up to her, she certainly didn’t take a step backwards but it seems like they’ve interpreted it that way.

Not that I want to turn in to the Gawker of racing but the internets uncovered some interesting speculation this afternoon… “look for Gomez to replace Smith” on Stardom Bound. But if we’re gonna speculate, you would think that any switch would be to Prado as Dutrow’s go to rider, although Iavarone was vague about when the transfer would happen. This just feels a little bit too much like the Hard Spun/Pino knee jerk reaction moment, that is, if it happens!

And because you knew it wouldn’t be long before this argument got trotted out:

Stardom Bound doing right thing staying w/ fillies. After Eight Belles, why would any owner consider taking the boys on? What’s the point?

The tweet-o-sphere immediately responded with:

It worked for Zarkava in the Arc and Goldikova in the BC Mile… both races less than 6 months after Eight Belles

And Ventura just finished a nose behind Gio Ponti in the Kilroe Mile. Sex isn’t a safety issue.

PETA has a worse rep than horse racing. Fs beat colts at ALL levels of the game. A filly won a classic not 2 years ago. There is no argument

R2R beat what people call ‘the greatest horse of this generation’. That’s ‘game over’ right there. Educate the peeps, don’t let PETA do it.

Educate is right + keep pressure on industry re: horse safety, welfare. Pandering to ignorance, anthropomorphism not the answer.

Fingers crossed that we can move on quickly from that argument, and I’m ready for the “Sex is not a Safety Issue” T-shirt!

In light of Einstein’s Big Cap win, Jessica and o_crunk have been trying to come up with a list of horses to win graded stakes on all three surfaces. So far they have Lava Man and Panty Raid. I just noticed Monterey Jazz has also has the 3 surface sweep. That’s a pretty short list, but then again it’s not an easy accomplishment. There have to be at least a few more, no?

Update: yes, there are quite a few more in fact. And doesn’t that sentiment re: “staying with the fillies” seem laughable now.

Posted by dana on Mar 09 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Impressive, Stardom Bound, Mike Smith, Omnisurface Stars, Twitter, Einstein, Internet, Lava Man, Hard Spun, Derby Trail, Mario Pino, Garrett Gomez, Racing

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I’m a little perturbed with all the spin about Stardom Bound being “barely best” beating an “unheralded” field and that her connections should face the “sobering reality”.

I couldn’t sum it up any better than Alan at LATG when he says:

Expecting to read the praises of the gritty win by Stardom Bound in the SA Oaks, I was surprised, and rather disappointed, to instead see it being framed in disappointment.

As Frankel put it, “She only ran 10 lengths farther than anybody else in the race”. Call me crazy, but I think having to overcome a wide, hideous, bumpy trip and still gutting it out to win is a plus, not a minus. But when one gets away on an easy lead with no challenge and wins by several lengths, well that’s impressive.

She’s staying put in my top 10 list for the PDI Index, I liked what I saw. (update: I removed her from my list after they announced she was off the trail. If she were still on the trail she would have remained at #2). Would I rather she had an effortless 6 length win? Sure, but what would she get out of that? The Oaks was probably the kind of race she needed if she wants to step up in to open company, and I hope she does!

But what do you think? Do you agree with Iavarone’s oversimplified (whoops, sorry!) assessment that she could “barely beat the girls” or do think she’s shown she can still get the job done even under adverse circumstances?

As for the last poll, it should come as no surprise that Chantal Sutherland was your favorite jock on Jockeys, Win or Die Trying. But, just like Stardom Bound in the Oaks, it wasn’t a runaway and she had to gut it out for the win! In the beginning it was a battle between Talamo & Gryder, but it didn’t take long for Sutherland & Smith to take over and battle for the lead. All the while Kayla Stra was in the mix and for several days she was on top!

There were a whopping 191 votes, that’s almost double the last most voted on poll (your biggest issue with the Breeders’ Cup) and I didn’t even promote this one! The final tally was 45 for Sutherland, 43 for Smith, 42 for Stra, 27 for Talamo, 26 for Gryder and 8 for Court.

As always, thanks for voting, even if you did you show up from a Google search for “pictures of Chantal Sutherland”!

Posted by dana on Mar 08 2009    
Filed Under: Kayla Stra, Jockeys TV Show, Iavarone, Aaron Gryder, Joe Talamo, I Want Revenge, Jon Court, Mike Smith, Stardom Bound, Chantal Sutherland, Derby Trail, Grrrr, Bobby Frankel, Poll, 2009, Impressive, Racing

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Stardom Bound & Mike Smith waltz home in the Las Virgenes (Charles Pravata)

Or are things looking up? “Jockeys, Win or Die Trying”, much to the relief of this viewer, turned out to be more substantive than the breakdown packed promotion. This year’s 3yo crop is looking deeper and more consistent than last years and, at least for the moment, there doesn’t seem to be much of anything to bitch about (I know, give it time).

Not that I’m a traffic whore (total lie) but Chantal Sutherland and Zenyatta have been the two most frequent searches to make their way to GbG post-”Jockeys”. Sutherland was already my biggest traffic driver from search results but I’m happy to see that the show not only gave Zenyatta decent coverage, but that it’s resulting in people wanting to know more. The racing camera work is downright stunning and does a lot to promote the game… it’s already exciting enough from the grandstand, but seeing like that should certainly peak some interest.

I do have a few small gripes. I thought they did a touch too much cutting back and forth during the Lady’s Secret stretch drive. The drama of the stretch drive could have stood more on it’s own with just a few cut away shots. I also didn’t like the music at all. For example, I would have preferred the Daft Punk original version of the theme song as opposed to that faux hip hop business (which is Stronger by Kanye West for all you googlers, but check out Daft Punk’s Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger too).

I’m still waiting to hear from one of my non-racing friends to find out what she thought. My mom had this to say in an email “I went past and saw someone get hurt, so I didn’t linger long.” Swifty had the same gripe about the music and, in addition to the theme song, specifically mentioned the music while Sutherland was crying (which I don’t remember). But he and I both agreed that overall the show seems likely to get people interested in racing, which is great! Maybe they’ll shoot the second season at Saratoga?

I’m not sure when Derby preps start to air but I hope media buyers for ESPN, NBC, etc. think to place some ads during the show. Seems like the perfect opportunity to generate some new fans. Perhaps the NTRA has already of thought of this and is on the case, I hope so!

Ask and you shall be given, it was a good day of racing indeed! I only handicapped the Risen Star and managed to hit the exacta. I boxed Friesan Fire, Flying Pegasus and Indygo Mountain. I wasn’t entirely sure how the pace scenario was going to play out as there was no clear speed but I thought it might have ended up a little faster.

Friesan Fire and Flying Pegasus are both on my list but I’m interested to see what Indygo Mountain will do in a faster pace scenario. He definitely improved from the Lecomte and got caught in a bit a traffic just when he had some run so I’m not discounting him just yet. Uno Mas also improved from the Lecomte and had I watched the replay a little more closely I might have caught that he was closing at the end and was probably likely to improve. And, needless to say, Giant Oak’s trip was pretty rough, again! I’ll be keeping an eye on both of them as well.

War Echo looked great in the Silverbulletday. I threw a little money away in that race combining her with Just Jenda and Southern Yankee based on the parade. War Echo was the visual stand out in the parade and I can’t wait to see her again.

On the west coast I don’t really need to wax poetic about Stardom Bound too much. Although, does this mean I’ll end up liking Iavarone and Babe this year? I thought Pioneerof the Nile’s stretch drive was pretty eye popping and can’t believe that I’m interested in California horses this year. I guess anything is possible!

Crist has a good post about the “brave new world” of synthetic racing particularly as it pertains to Beyer Speed Figures. I don’t really use BSFs because they don’t take pace into account, and as Crist points out, Stardom Bound’s low BSF doesn’t tell the whole tale. I noticed last week the top two finishers of the Holy Bull had the lowest BSFs of the field, both at 76.

One similarity to last year’s crop is that, with the exception of the Spectacular Bid, the pace has been pretty moderate in almost every race. Is Notonthesamepage the only front running speed horse in the group or am I forgetting someone? I’d love to see what Indygo Mountain, and Flying Pegasus for that matter, would do in that kind of pace scenario!

And finally, Sarah and Charles were both in action yesterday at Aqueduct and Santa Anita respectively. Apparently Charles was in a couple of shots of the second episode of Jockeys, I think Sarah’s on to something with the drinking game idea. Cheers!

Posted by dana on Feb 08 2009    
Filed Under: Giant Oak, Notonthesamepage, War Echo, Friesan Fire, 2009, Stardom Bound, Flying Pegasus, Just Jenda, Jockeys TV Show, Risen Star, Iavarone, Richard Dutrow, Mike Smith, Zenyatta, Fairgrounds, TV, NTRA, Marketing, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, Chantal Sutherland, 3yo, Exacta, Mainstream Media, Wrap Up, Sarah K. Andrew, Charles Pravata, Santa Anita, Racing

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