Well, it’s 3:15 on Saturday and I’ve just finished handicapping the Blue Grass… and it’s the first race I’ve finished. I’m pretty sure I can get through the Arkansas Derby and maybe even the Holy Bull if I’m lucky!

I could use the excuse that this race was really hard to figure out as the reason why I’m getting so little done, but that wouldn’t be the truth. However, that doesn’t detract from the fact that it was really hard to figure this one out!

Between the clear division of those with synthetic experience & those without + questionable pace scenario one could go back and forth about how things are going to shake out (and I did).

I’m going with the idea that Pyro, my current favorite for the Derby, will not win here. His works have been ultra consistent and his last work over the surface looks exactly like his last work before his last win + he’ll likely get the same kind of pace, but let’s face it, he doesn’t have to win. And as Valerie has pointed out, no Derby winner of the last 10 years has won this race (including Street Sense).

There are a couple items of note in this race. I’m guessing that Pletcher has entered the talented turf specialist Cowboy Cal not only to see what he’ll do here, but to create a nice pace scenario for Monba. It looks like they worked together last out and Monba did a touch better… it was a nice work for both of them.

Miner’s Claim and perhaps even Stonebird seem like they might be on or near the lead as well… while I’m not expecting anything close to the pace in the Wood, it could be a touch faster than we’ve seen in the majority of prep races.

Cool Coal Man looks great… his last work is a nice improvement at the distance, he’s proven at the distance and it bears noting that he’s in the same post position as his last two, which means he should set-up perfectly. However, he’s a total wild card on the surface.

Big Truck also looks great, even better than Cool Coal Man in my opinion because of that last work over the track + the same bullet pattern as prior to his last win. It looks like he’s gonna like the surface. Visionaire’s last work also seems to indicate that he’ll like the surface.

As for the proven synthetic runners Halo Najib looks like he could really improve here… if he runs on the pace I think he could be in the mix at the end. Could he be this year’s Dominican? Medjool looks like he could make some noise too.

Posted by dana on Apr 12 2008    
Filed Under: Pyro, 2008, Picks, 3yo, Dominican, Street Sense, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Racing

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Curlin, “proving it to me” again, in the Jockey Gold Cup (Sarah K. Andrew)

Swifty’s comment on my bandwagon post brought up another, somewhat related topic.

Oh how quickly they forget… I can’t believe that I so conveniently blanked out all of the Derby hype around Curlin last year, albeit, not quite this early.

It was everywhere, and my natural aversion to hype was fully intact as well…

04/16/2007:

The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?

05/06/2007:

So, as I suspected, Curlin wasn’t quite ready to take on the big boys, but clearly he’s a very good horse.

It dawned on me last night that Curlin was such a media darling because Americans are completely invested in the idea of the easy payoff.

But then the tide started to change…

05/19/2007 - 1:

I also think the Derby was probably good for Curlin. I’m looking for him to sit closer to the pace and have a better shot this time.

05/19/2007 - 2:

Curlin may have won by a nose but he kicked Street Sense’s ass in my opinion. He came 3 wide to Street Sense’s inside trip and the really poured it on at the end. Fucking Fantastic! He galloped out nicely too. The one thing I did get right was that the Derby was good for him! He really has the killer instinct.

And then, he had proved it to me…

05/21/2007:

I was re-reading a few of my posts because I was thinking about things I wanted to see about a few of the horses before I became a believer.

From my Derby Futures Wagers post:

“The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?”

Answered: Yes!

Not only is the this story of how one woman overcame her abhorrence of hype, it illustrates something I’m sure every horseplayer does to some extent. We all have our “yeah, but how will they handle X” or “but they had the perfect trip”.

As a matter of fact, to me Street Sense never lived up to “the hype” because he never “proved it to me” about having to go around horses. How would he have faired in this year’s Risen Star as a closer?

We all do it, and we all have our own criteria. For example in the aforementioned TBA Facebook discussion of Pyro, Teresa at Brooklyn Backstretch still has Pyro on her “Prove it to me” list because the pace was so slow (could he do it if he had had to run faster?) but to me it was more impressive because the pace was slow. To each their own “Prove it to me”… and that’s what makes discussing the races so damn fun!

Posted by dana on Feb 12 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Prove it to Me, Pyro, Sarah K. Andrew, Street Sense, Curlin, Racing

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Daytona & Mike Smith winning the San Gabriel, can they do it again this weekend? (Charles Pravata)

Given the insanity of the west coast, I decided to only focus on Fairgrounds this weekend.

A little while ago I was eating my lunch in front of the OTB channel. It was just before the 5th race at Aqueduct. I thought the #1 horse, Boggy Creek Dancer, looked really good in the parade, very calm and self assured. The rest of them looked a little too antsy. I wasn’t surprised at BCD’s long odds as I’ve seen him race before, but he did look really good.

In the stretch it looked like the #9, Majestic Melody, really had it, sitting off the pace and coming on with a nice run. Out of nowhere Boggy Creek Dancer flew by the rest of the field to win by a couple of lengths and pay $40.20. I took this as a hopeful sign for the rest of my day!

I’m betting against Grasshopper here. I never bought the hype about him as the Street Sense he placed to in the Travers was not the same Street Sense that won the Derby (as evidenced by his miserable BC performance).

I like Silver Lord and Magna Graduate in that order, I may box them but since they’re both current at 3-1 with 15 minutes to post, I may take a pass. (I just boxed them, wish me luck… Note: Grasshopper just crushed the field by 3 lengths and took me out of the P4, but at least Silver Lord beat Magna Graduate!).

This was the toughest one for me and I went deep on my Pick 4 here, but could have actually gone deeper. Better Talk Now is clearly is a stand out, however he doesn’t do well off a lay off (with the exception of winning the Dixie after bombing in Japan). I’m including him in my P4, but won’t bet him in the race.

I like Daytona but have no idea how he’ll ship or if he’ll like the turf at Fairgrounds. I think he’ll control the pace, which should be good for him. Silverfoot is interesting to me, the 8yo missed last year and in his return race looked game but got caught in traffic, I think he could improve. Another interesting one is Baby First, he ran a nice race last out as his first in North America and will probably improve as well. From what I can tell Inca King is due for a regression after 3 wins and I’m pretty sure since I left him off my P4 that he’ll go wire to wire. (Note: that really doesn’t matter now, does it?) I also think Sterwins is worth a look, I think he’ll like the distance more than French Beret and can probably do the best on what I’m guessing will be a slowish pace.

It’s hard to go against Indian Blessing, but at those odds I’m going to try…although I did I have her singled on one of my loosing P4 tickets. I can’t tell if she wasn’t fond of the Santa Anita surface last out or if it really was a distance issue. The more I think about it the more I lean towards the surface because she handled the distance so beautifully in the BC. It looks to me like High Surf and possibly even Miss Missile could give her some pressure. Let’s say for the sake of argument that it was a distance issue last out, in that case both Proud Spell and Highest Class interest me.

Proud Spell is pretty obvious but you might wonder why I would say Highest Class over Jolie the Cat, particularly when Jolie the Cat beat Highest Class last out. Distance & pace. Highest Class had 2 wins at the distance before cutting back in the Tiffany Lass, also Jolie the Cat had the slow pace all to herself, that won’t the be case today. Even throwing out the unnaturally fast fractions she set at Santa Anita, most of these horses haven’t seen anything like a pace that Indian Blessing can set. That being said, Proud Spell has shown she can do it from off a fast pace and I’m interested to see what Highest Class will do here.

A.K.A, the paceless wonder. It looks like it’s gonna be up to The Darp to set the pace again although he might get some help from Signature Move. This does not bode well for Blackberry Road, Visionaire and even Pyro, but looks great for Z Fortune and possibly Unbridled Vicar.

You can’t go wrong with Curlin as your morning training partner so I’m still convinced Pyro has a shot even if the pace isn’t so hot. Unbridled Vicar is my wise guy play here, I think the slow pace won’t be as negative for him as it will be for some of the others plus I wonder if he could have won his last out at the distance, and that was also a slow pace.

Daytona just won the Fairground Handicap and Sterwins showed in a photo to Jazz Quest, although I boxed Silver Foot and Sterwins. I just can’t deal with 2-1 odds… always the value player! Best of luck to all!

Posted by dana on Feb 09 2008    
Filed Under: Fairgrounds, Aqueduct, 2008, Picks, Proud Spell, Pyro, Charles Pravata, Curlin, Street Sense, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Grasshopper, Racing

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Street Sense, Imawildandcrazyguy & Tiago bring up the rear in the 2007 Derby (Kentucky Derby)

I’ve been procrastinating a wrap-up post that I intend to do tomorrow (I’m hoping for the buzzy kind of hangover!)… until then, I hope your 2007 was as spectacular as the 2007 crop of 3 year olds!

Posted by dana on Dec 31 2007    
Filed Under: Imawildandcrazyguy, 2007, Street Sense, Racing

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Street Sense walking back to the barn after the Classic (o_crunk)

When I arrived home tonight I noticed a box in the “mail area” of the apartment. I sort of assumed it was from my mom given that she’s been sending me xmas presents for at least a week now.

When I looked at the box it it was from Bloodhorse. “Did my mom get me something from Bloodhorse?” “How would she know to get me something from Bloodhorse?” This confusion went on until I saw the ‘Open Immediately - 2008 Stallion Register enclosed’ (like it might go bad).

First of all, I didn’t know they even published such a thing (remember, green) and second of all I didn’t know they would just send one to all subscribers. I also recently got a fancy Coolmore catalog (why, I’m not sure)… marketing at this level of the game gives Haute Couture a run for it’s money (pun intended).

As I was thumbing through it, noting who I thought was cute (all of them), naturally went I looking for some of my favorites. I was hoping Invasor & Hard Spun would have the standard stately pose in front of an idyllic pasture with a perfectly aged fence (Storm Cat), or in front of a souped up Colonial with Georgian columns (Perfect Soul - IRE), but alas they’re newbies, so they have racing pictures.

Invasor’s pic is from the Breeders’ Cup, natch, while Street Sense’s is from the Derby. It sort of looks like the Yum Brand logo is a cartoon speech bubble coming out of Calvin Borel’s mouth as he reaches towards the sky right after crossing the finish.

Sure, it’s fun to analyze it as a marketing tool while simultaneously disturbing to observe it as an effective cog in a well oiled machine. But the real deal can’t be any more clear than it is on the Street Sense page… “Bred to be a Stallion”. Clearly a selling point and clearly problem number 1 in the long list of problems with thoroughbred horse racing as a sport.

This sentiment was also echoed in something that Alan at Left at the Gate pointed out over the weekend. It would be different in the case of the catalog if this sentiment was confined to the breeding industry, but it’s not… it’s clear that it’s the motivating factor for the majority of decisioning, at least for some… and definitely too many.

Posted by dana on Dec 11 2007    
Filed Under: 2007, Greed, Storm Cat, Invasor, Street Sense, Breeding, Let Horses Race, Hard Spun, Racing

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