Was it just me, or was Saturday really weird? Hysterical Lady, Tiago and Daaher all throwing total clunkers, the continuing parade of California claimers stepping up their games, turf horses running on dirt and a horse who won his last on turf taking a dirt (well, synthetic) race. Add this from the NYC OTB site:

Wagering on Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields is unavailable today because the California Horsemen have withdrawn their consent to interstate simulcasting and wagering with the New York State Off-Track Betting Corporations.

We apologize for this interruption and are working to resolve the problem.

Swifty and I had both just lost on the Swale and were starting to think about the Robert B. Lewis, but we couldn’t find Santa Anita on our TV at “The Office”. The loud and annoying investment bankers sitting next to us started to grumble as well. Swifty asked one of the clerks at the window where the signal was and the answer was that the California jocks were on strike but the answer seemed vague enough to make to make it seem like there was no racing at Santa Anita.

I took a quick look around on my dedicated txting and horse racing news reading device and wasn’t able to find any information about what was going on. As a matter of fact, as of right now (4:20pm on Sunday), the paragraph quoted above is the ONLY thing I can find on the matter!

We eventually figured out that it was just that the signal was blocked as I could log-in in my Twinspires account on my phone and see that the races were indeed on. After the Donn we both busted out of there quickly so we could get to our respective apartments and play Santa Anita via Twinspires (i.e, continue my losing streak).

Fellow TBAers John and Valerie reported that their Twinspires accounts were useless for both the Donn and Robert B. Lewis due to heavy traffic but I didn’t have any trouble in the Strub and frankly was happy to have the account in this odd twist of signal war fate. However, you won’t hear an argument from me on the addressing some of the usability issues of Twinspires, but that’s another post entirely!

For the most part I feel good about Donn assessment as Daaher couldn’t stand up to pressure on the lead, but I also have to wonder with such a horrifying clunker if something isn’t wrong with him. Also, I have to wonder if Luzzi could have used some slightly better judgment given the distance. I thought my pick AP Arrow ran well and it looked like with a touch more distance he could have gotten there as he was closing hard.

But Spring at Last, way to go! On my first pass of the race I was planning on using him but eventually talked myself out of it thinking he had distance limitations, although he ran well in the Strub last year at the distance. Needless to say, I’m happy to see him step up and am hoping to see more good things from him and AP Arrow.

Speaking of the Strub, Tiago barely held on for place… Valerie, and I’m sure others, are starting to wonder to about him. My sentimental pick Slew’s Tizzy bombed horribly! I’m starting to wonder if he just can’t rate + perhaps it’s time to drop him in for a confidence builder (and/or permanently drop him in class). However, I think they should also try him on the turf again as he showed some signs of life there. I seriously expected him to do so much better on that surface. I don’t think it was a distance issue as it looked like it was over for him before he even go to the stretch. In watching the replay it also looks like he might have been a little rank in the stretch as well. It was nice to see Great Hunter improve on his 3 outting since last year’s Derby. Hopefully he’ll get back in the swing of things as well.

But Monterey Jazz, who I liked in the San Fernando before he scratched, is interesting in that there’s been a whole parade of former claimers stepping up in California and I believe they’ve all been early speed types as well. Zayat Stables has also had some speedy front runners making mild upsets on the early part of the Derby Trail with Z Fortune and Eaton’s Gift.

For the holidays I bought myself a bunch of DRF handicapping books that they smartly packaged as group. Given what’s been going on lately, I think I’ll start with Steve Klein’s The Power of Early Speed.

Posted by dana on Feb 03 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, Technology, TBA, 2008, Twinspires, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, OTB, Slew's Tizzy, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Tiago, Derby Trail, Great Hunter, Handicapping, Racing

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View from my cube

I’ve been busy, and will be for a good part of the prep season, but at least I have the calendar to keep me company. Now that the whining is out of the way, here are my picks… quickly, cuz I gotta get to the office to see JZ Warrior’s return!

Swale:
I’ll take St. Joe here, the cutback should be good for him + his last 2 works have been good. Wincat looks tough but I wanna see him against more experienced runners before I’ll take a short price. My only question about St. Joe is does he like conventional dirt or were his last two efforts a product of distance? Coal Play looks interesting too.

Robert B Lewis:
I like Crown of Thorns and Coast Guard. Crown of Thorns has some needed endurance building works and Coast Guard is getting blinkers + he looks to me to be most likely to stretch out.

Donn:
I’m not sold on Daaher here, they’ll be more pace than his last 2 + more distance. In his win at the distance he didn’t have any pressure and I don’t think that will be the case today. Mind you, I’ll use him, but I don’t think he’s a sure thing, he might also regress.

I like AP Arrow, of he, Fairbanks and Brass Hat I think he’s the strongest. He really likes this distance and I liked his performance in the Clark. I’ll also throw in Dr. Googles Boogles (which is very fun to say!) in for fun. He’s placed 2 out of 3 times at the distance and looks to me be improving. I’m not sold on Einstein or Kiss the Kid here, I’m always leary of turf horses who’s only wins off turf were in turf races moved to dirt. Although I’m interested to see how Einstein will do!

Santa Monica:
I probably won’t wager here but I like Hysterical Lady better than Pussycat Doll. Hysterical Lady has handled synthetic surfaces well while PCD hasn’t + I think the cutback is just right. I might do a tri-box with including HL, PCD & Overly Tempting.

Strub:
Tiago looks hard to beat, he needed the last race + this is his distance. However, you all know how I feel about Slew’s Tizzy. I really think he’s got a shot. He hasn’t had much luck at the distance but I know he’ll love the surface. I’m interested to see if he’ll rate or get in a speed duel, which could undo him. I’ll box them + depending on Slew’s Tizzy’s odds I’ll take him across the board as well. Air Commander is a “prove it to me” here.

Best of luck to all!

Posted by dana on Feb 02 2008    
Filed Under: Picks, Einstein, 2008, Handicapping, Slew's Tizzy, Tiago, Racing

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I’m gearing up to post a few recaps both of my picks + how I did & of the experience of “being there”. I had a truly incredible time… I got to meet a few folks but missed others, chatted and discussed upcoming races with LOTs of strangers and, as always, had a great time with Swifty.

Speaking of Swifty, he posted a nice little video of the Classic contenders coming through the tunnel before the race with his new toy (basically a video cam attached to a USB drive that has software on it that allows the user to publish directly to YouTube… pretty cool).

Ok, back to gearing up to post…

Posted by dana on Oct 28 2007    
Filed Under: BC Classic, YouTube, George Washington, Awesome Gem, Diamond Stripes, 2007, Breeders' Cup, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Tiago, Fans

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While it’s hard for me to pick a winner in this group, here are my thoughts on each of horses in order by post position.

Imawildandcrazyguy:
His race in the Derby was IM-pressive. Everyone was making such a big deal about Street Sense closing from 19. IWCG closed from 20th a good 2 lengths behind SS’s 19th, came 10 wide to SS’s inside trip and was still coming after the finish line. His odds are a gift.

Tiago:
I really like this horse and had him across the board when he pulled an upset in the Santa Anita Derby. His gallop out at the Derby was fantastic. I wish his odds were closer to IWCG’s. I think depending on the on the pace scenario you’ll see him on the board. He will definitely be included in my tri or exacta boxes.

Curlin:
Really hard not to like him. I’ve read a couple of reports that he looks really good right now. I’ve also read a lot of postulating that he’ll suffer muscle fatigue because he’s such a big boy. I’m tending to favor fresh horses in this race and while I’m new to the sport and horses in general, I tend to think there’s something to the muscle fatigue theory… a mile and half is a long ass race. His Preakness performance was probably one of the best performances we’ll see in a long time, from him or anyone else… and that’s got it take it out of him.

CP West:
Swifty thought he was one to watch at the Preakness and I didn’t pay that any mind, turns out he ran a great race! He hung tough with Hard Spun through the stretch and didn’t loose any ground (he didn’t gain any either). I think he could bring up the end of a superfecta although I’m not sure I’m including him.

Slew’s Tizzy:
Here’s another horse I like a lot. With the blinker change and jock upgrade I had him across the board in his stunning Lexington upset (and was jumping up & down like a crazy person alone in my apartment watching the OTB channel when it was clear no one was gonna catch him in the stretch. This was was the highest point of my ‘long shot across the board’ approach thus far). What I like about his last 2 races was that he (like Rags to Riches) was pulling away each time (albeit, not as much as her). I think he’s got shot if Hard Spun doesn’t get too far away from him and HS’s pace is too fast, albeit a long shot. Love his odds and will be including him in some tris + perhaps an across the board.

Hard Spun:
I love this horse and while it would make me extremely happy to see him win, I think there are two distinct scenarios. If he keeps the pace under control I think he’ll probably win it, and maybe with authority. I like GG and think he’ll be a good addition to all the things HS has going for him. If he either gets in an upfront speed battle with Slew’s Tizzy (which I hope doesn’t happen) or just plain old sets a fast pace, I think he’ll tire. His breeding suggests he can handle the distance so I think it’s a matter of pace. It’s also worth noting that in the aerial view of the Derby (which I can’t find anymore), in the last few lengths he starts to gain on Street Sense… this also made me think a mile and half could work for him.

Rags to Riches:
I’m so glad she’s running! Her breeding is right on for this distance and she gets a weight advantage as a filly that will serve her well, particularly since she’s as big as they are! She’s run wide almost every race and if you look at her win margins it makes them all the more impressive. There’s no doubt in my mind she’ll be on the board and I think she could win it! If Hard Spun doesn’t pull away, it’s hard for me to call it between Rags to Riches, Imawildandcrazyguy and Tiago.

With that said, my official picks in any order are:
Hard Spun, Rags to Riches, Imawildandcrazyguy & Tiago.

If I had to pick an order:
Imawildandcrazyguy, Rags to Riches, Hard Spun, Tiago.

Best of luck to all!!

Posted by dana on Jun 08 2007    
Filed Under: Garrett Gomez, Handicapping, 2007, Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, CP West, Triple Crown, Tiago, Hard Spun, Wagering, Street Sense, Curlin, Slew's Tizzy, Rags to Riches, Racing

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In a Belmont Prep Notes article on the New York Racing Association site, this little tidbit was uncovered about Tiago:

Unlike most horses, Tiago is given bottled water. In California, Shirreffs has a water purification system in the barn.

“When our horses ship out of town and the water is different, they can taste it and don’t drink as much as they should,” Lael said. “The bottled water tastes pretty good to them, though.”

How much bottled water does Tiago consume in one day? According to Lael, it’s about three cases of 24 500ml bottles. Such a thirst costs about $80 per day.

This makes me like Tiago even more… I would never go to the track and not bring my own water!
[NYRA]

Posted by dana on Jun 05 2007    
Filed Under: John Shirrefs, Belmont Stakes, 2007, Triple Crown, Tiago

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