While it’s hard for me to pick a winner in this group, here are my thoughts on each of horses in order by post position.

Imawildandcrazyguy:
His race in the Derby was IM-pressive. Everyone was making such a big deal about Street Sense closing from 19. IWCG closed from 20th a good 2 lengths behind SS’s 19th, came 10 wide to SS’s inside trip and was still coming after the finish line. His odds are a gift.

Tiago:
I really like this horse and had him across the board when he pulled an upset in the Santa Anita Derby. His gallop out at the Derby was fantastic. I wish his odds were closer to IWCG’s. I think depending on the on the pace scenario you’ll see him on the board. He will definitely be included in my tri or exacta boxes.

Curlin:
Really hard not to like him. I’ve read a couple of reports that he looks really good right now. I’ve also read a lot of postulating that he’ll suffer muscle fatigue because he’s such a big boy. I’m tending to favor fresh horses in this race and while I’m new to the sport and horses in general, I tend to think there’s something to the muscle fatigue theory… a mile and half is a long ass race. His Preakness performance was probably one of the best performances we’ll see in a long time, from him or anyone else… and that’s got it take it out of him.

CP West:
Swifty thought he was one to watch at the Preakness and I didn’t pay that any mind, turns out he ran a great race! He hung tough with Hard Spun through the stretch and didn’t loose any ground (he didn’t gain any either). I think he could bring up the end of a superfecta although I’m not sure I’m including him.

Slew’s Tizzy:
Here’s another horse I like a lot. With the blinker change and jock upgrade I had him across the board in his stunning Lexington upset (and was jumping up & down like a crazy person alone in my apartment watching the OTB channel when it was clear no one was gonna catch him in the stretch. This was was the highest point of my ‘long shot across the board’ approach thus far). What I like about his last 2 races was that he (like Rags to Riches) was pulling away each time (albeit, not as much as her). I think he’s got shot if Hard Spun doesn’t get too far away from him and HS’s pace is too fast, albeit a long shot. Love his odds and will be including him in some tris + perhaps an across the board.

Hard Spun:
I love this horse and while it would make me extremely happy to see him win, I think there are two distinct scenarios. If he keeps the pace under control I think he’ll probably win it, and maybe with authority. I like GG and think he’ll be a good addition to all the things HS has going for him. If he either gets in an upfront speed battle with Slew’s Tizzy (which I hope doesn’t happen) or just plain old sets a fast pace, I think he’ll tire. His breeding suggests he can handle the distance so I think it’s a matter of pace. It’s also worth noting that in the aerial view of the Derby (which I can’t find anymore), in the last few lengths he starts to gain on Street Sense… this also made me think a mile and half could work for him.

Rags to Riches:
I’m so glad she’s running! Her breeding is right on for this distance and she gets a weight advantage as a filly that will serve her well, particularly since she’s as big as they are! She’s run wide almost every race and if you look at her win margins it makes them all the more impressive. There’s no doubt in my mind she’ll be on the board and I think she could win it! If Hard Spun doesn’t pull away, it’s hard for me to call it between Rags to Riches, Imawildandcrazyguy and Tiago.

With that said, my official picks in any order are:
Hard Spun, Rags to Riches, Imawildandcrazyguy & Tiago.

If I had to pick an order:
Imawildandcrazyguy, Rags to Riches, Hard Spun, Tiago.

Best of luck to all!!

Posted by dana on Jun 08 2007    
Filed Under: Garrett Gomez, Handicapping, 2007, Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, CP West, Triple Crown, Tiago, Hard Spun, Wagering, Street Sense, Curlin, Slew's Tizzy, Rags to Riches, Racing

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In a Belmont Prep Notes article on the New York Racing Association site, this little tidbit was uncovered about Tiago:

Unlike most horses, Tiago is given bottled water. In California, Shirreffs has a water purification system in the barn.

“When our horses ship out of town and the water is different, they can taste it and don’t drink as much as they should,” Lael said. “The bottled water tastes pretty good to them, though.”

How much bottled water does Tiago consume in one day? According to Lael, it’s about three cases of 24 500ml bottles. Such a thirst costs about $80 per day.

This makes me like Tiago even more… I would never go to the track and not bring my own water!
[NYRA]

Posted by dana on Jun 05 2007    
Filed Under: John Shirreffs, Belmont Stakes, 2007, Triple Crown, Tiago

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Article about Bill Kaplan (who I like a lot) and Imawildandcrazyguy’s preps for the Belmont. I think he ran an extremely impressive race in the Derby. He was BEHIND Street Sense in 20th place and closed to 4th on the OUTSIDE. I’m really looking forward to see what he’ll do in the Belmont.

Actually, I really like all the probable Belmont entrants… the top 3 from the last 2, Tiago, Great Hunter, Slew’s Tizzy and Imawildandcrazyguy are contenders as far as I’m concerned… throw Rags to Riches in there and look out!

[NTRA]

Posted by dana on May 25 2007    
Filed Under: Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, Bill Kaplan, 2007, Great Hunter, Slew's Tizzy, Tiago, Rags to Riches

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and then I’m moving on.

On thing that’s made me feel somewhat better about not covering my bets with the winning combo is that of all the experts and bloggers I read, no one predicted the winning combo (although I still should have done a $20 tri box with the three favs, dammit!).

As I’ve noted before, I’m a big fan of biases and I watch them closely. On the day before the Preakness and day of, front runners and stalkers were favored to closers. Only one closer had won the day before, and with the exception of the 4 & 5th races that I didn’t see (because I was in transit to the “office”) front runners and stalkers were winning. Interesting to note because biases, like all other handicapping tools, are not to be taken as the only factor… and as most will tell you, a good horse can overcome anything.

I was re-reading a few of my posts because I was thinking about things I wanted to see about a few of the horses before I became a believer.

From my Derby Futures Wagers post:

“The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?”

Answered: Yes!

I still want to see Street Sense go 3 or 4 wide and weave in and out of horses.

Here’s a gripe… the Pimlico simulcast didn’t have split screen so you couldn’t see what the back of the pack was doing. This is one of most helpful things ever, I felt like I didn’t know what was going on in the race because it was just focused on the front runners. Is this a Magna entertainment thing? I’ll have to look at this more closely. It’s one thing for NBC to not have the split screen, but an OTB simulcast? That’s ridiculous!

Now for the moving on part… rematch! The distance in the Belmont will be very interesting. Swifty thinks Hard Spun won’t run, and he’s probably right. A few interesting additions are going to be Tiago, Imawildandcrazyguy and hopefully Rags to Riches! Tiago & Imawildandcrazyguy will do much better at that distance for sure. I would love to see Rags to Riches win the Belmont!!

Posted by dana on May 20 2007    
Filed Under: 2007, Biases, Handicapping, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Imawildandcrazyguy, Pimlico, Triple Crown, Tiago, Wagering, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Hard Spun, Street Sense, Rags to Riches, Curlin, Racing

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My strategy for the 3rd pool was to basically bet against Curlin, Street Sense & Circular Quay (and watch them win, place and show on Derby day).

The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?

As for Street Sense, he seems to need precise placement to really get the job done. While Circular Quay overcame a potential huge disaster in the Risen Star and finished well, I’ve never had a gut feeling for him.

$10 on:
No Biz - while somewhat goofy, I think he’s probably the horse to beat
Hard Spun - the only teeny tiny reservation I have about him is that he hasn’t beaten, or run against, any of the favs
Scat Daddy - he’s so gutsy!
Tiago - if he performs like his last race, watch out

$8 on:
Great Hunter - looked to me like he got stuck in traffic in the Blue Grass, he’s beaten both Street Sense & Circular Quay

$6 on:
Cowtown Cat - ran great his last 2 races
Domincan - can’t believe his odds didn’t lower more
All Other 2 year olds - you never know

$2 on:
Officer Rocket - even though his showing was poor in the Arkansas Derby, he’s beaten Teufelsberg, Hard Spun & Street Sense!
Teuflesberg - he’s beaten Hard Spun and despite his incredibly slow pace was pretty game in the stretch during the Blue Grass, I think he’ll do better when he’s not the pacesetter.

I also put some money on the Oaks, I haven’t been following the Ladies too closely (that will change next year), but here’s what I did:

$4 on:
Boca Grande
Octave

$2 on:
Autobahn Girl
Dawn After Dawn
Dream Rush
Moonee Ponds

Posted by dana on Apr 16 2007    
Filed Under: Teuflesburg, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Octave, Autobahn Girl, 2007, Dream Rush, Dawn After Dawn, Dominican, Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Tiago, Triple Crown, Derby Trail, Wagering

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