Hello Broadway, half to No Biz breaking his maiden at Saratoga (Bud Morton)

When I saw this today, I remembered immediately that I recently asked if they had announced the inevitable regarding War Pass yet.

Today was the day… they finally came out with it and announced that War Pass has been officially retired and will stand at Lane’s End, a deal that was put in place after last year’s BC Juvenile. No surprise, just check it off the “when will they announce it” list.

Within a half an hour I notice that No Biz’s stud fee has been announced… $7,500. As Jessica put in in her reply to my email question “Is it just me or is No Biz a huge bargain?”

What a great price on a horse that won stakes at two and three, on dirt and turf.

And what do we think the fee for War Pass will be? (Upcoming poll alert!!) Much more than $7,500, that’s for sure.

Just last weekend halfs to No Biz and War Pass duked it out it a classy baby race with No Biz’s little bro, Hello Broadway, gamely defeating Imperial Council (no relation) by a nose while War Pass’s little bro was in the mix for show.

What are the odds of that coincidence? And too bad I didn’t have a few bucks on it!

Posted by dana on Sep 05 2008    
Filed Under: 3yo, 2yo, War Pass, 2008, Bud Morton, Injury, Maiden, Let Horses Race, Breeding, Retirement, Saratoga, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Racing

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Channing Hill gets his first G1 win aboard the classy First Defence in the Forego (~ RAYMOND)

I didn’t do too much handicapping for today but it turned out to be exacta day at GbG manor! I did the 8th & 9th with a 5 minute look at the Woodward.

The 8th was fantastic, a classy baby race featuring Hello Broadway, a half to GbG fav Nobiz Like Showbiz owned by Elizabeth Valando, trained by Tagg with Coa up. In addition to liking Hello Broadway I also really liked Imperial Council and Fast Draw.

If I did any super noticing this weekend (and I really don’t think I did), it was that Mushka & Country Star, both Empire Makers, were fantastic as 2yos. I thought Imperial Council, by Empire Maker, was training well but it was the Empire Maker thought + looking good in the parade that sold me. Fast Draw had also been training well since his last start and I was hoping he would improve on his 3rd try.

I think the 8th could have been the most exciting race of the ones I watched. Hello Broadway & Imperial Council looked professional dueling in the lane. Just when it looked like Imperial Council, at 20-1, might power on by, Hello Broadway dug in and put his neck in front for the well earned win. The show horse, Ruler’s Vision, is a half to War Pass. Have they officially retired War Pass yet? My exacta would have been oh so much more fulfilling if Imperial Council would have held off Hello Broadway but I’ll be keeping an eye out for both of these classy babies nonetheless.

In the Forego, I really liked First Defence but thought Lucky Island looked pretty hard to beat. I also liked Eternal Star and Ferocious Fires and played all of them in varying priced exacta boxes. I couldn’t believe it when Lucky Island broke so horribly, but he did pour it on and manage to get himself in the race. Annoyingly Greeley’s Conquest blew what would have been an excellent paying exacta by edging Ferocious Fires… damn!! But I was happy to see the classy First Defence really strut his stuff by setting some impressive fractions and winning by 6+ lengths. Also, congrats to Channing Hill for his first G1 win!

In the Woodward I threw out Divine Park, more for the distance than coming off a break, and Out of Control for the surface. I’ve always really liked Wanderin’ Boy and A.P. Arrow but Past The Point was more intriguing to me coming off a win at the distance and having a nice looking prep work. Loose Leaf was also coming off a win at the distance but I didn’t think his works were as nice even though his last race a touch classier.

I put Curlin over all of the above, boxed them all sans Curlin in case the HOY had a (un)Lucky Island like scenario. I also put them all over Curlin (and wouldn’t I have felt pretty darn smart if Past The Point would have held on to win!).

Was it just me or did it look like Garcia and Johnny V. did a bit of race riding in the first turn? It looked like a Divine Park, Curlin, Out of Control ice cream sandwich! Curlin was able to get himself in a good position and like always he came on when asked. Robby looked a little panicky when Curlin wasn’t easily taking over Pass The Point but the Horse of the Year got the job done like the classy pro he is. I’d love to see him back at Belmont for the JCGC next month!

Speaking of Nobiz, Adriano finally came back to form winning the Kent Stakes, a race Nobiz won last year. I was annoyed when Adriano’s connections caught Derby fever after his win in the Lane’s End. It took him until now get back to his best form on the turf, but he came back with classy style winning with an exciting late run get up just in time. Welcome back Adriano, stay classy!

Posted by dana on Aug 30 2008    
Filed Under: Mushka, War Pass, Robby Albarado, Channing Hill, Country Star, Raymond Haddad, 2008, Empire Maker, Alan Garcia, 2yo, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Curlin, Saratoga, Barclay Tagg, Eibar Coa, Turf, John Velazquez, Racing

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As I was reading the various takes on yesterdays preps it dawned on me that this is not the only Sunday where we’re left to ponder “what happened to (fill in the blank)?” and inevitably “what does it mean?”.

Let’s take a look back, shall we?

Blue Grass: Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, Big Truck
Santa Anita Derby: El Gato Malo
Illinois Derby: Denis of Cork
Florida Derby: Fierce Wind, Elysium Fields
Rebel: Z Fortune
Tampa Bay Derby: War Pass
Louisiana Derby: Tale of Ekati
Gotham: Giant Moon
Fountain of Youth: Monba

What does this mean, other than this year’s 3yos seem to be a lot less consistent than last year’s? I’m going to throw out the Blue Grass for the no-showers because of the surface. It would be one thing if only one of them stunk, but they all got a big fat F.

Does this mean that the horses that haven’t thrown a clunker yet are more likely to on Derby day? Does it mean that those who have thrown a clunker have theirs out of the way? It would be great if it were that simple (and maybe in some cases it is). Monba, Tale of Ekati, War Pass and Z Fortune have all had nice comebacks off of their clunkers, could the same be true for the recent no shows?

Take War Pass, I thought his Wood performance was great… the old War Pass showed up, set insane fractions and gutted it out for a strong place. I don’t think there’s any shame in that performance. If he were my horse I’d wait for the Preakness and then save him for the summer as it’s clear he won’t rate and there’s a ton of confirmed speed going to Kentucky.

How about Big Brown? My biggest prove it to me point, other than his feet (which I think is a big point to prove), is that his real competition didn’t show up in the Florida Derby. Sure he’s got a ton of talent and I’m excited to see what he’ll do with it (if his connections don’t f-up his feet because of their Derby fever) but I can’t back at a horse at those odds with so little proven. It actually cracks me up how people go so bananas for a visually impressive performance and a 3 digit Beyer (on a speed favoring track). I’m still of the opinion that Pyro’s Risen Star was the the performance of the season.

And yes, speaking of Pyro, if he comes out the Blue Grass sound he’s still my fav… and even better for me that his odds will no doubt be much higher. As for the rest of them… I’m still mulling it all over and waiting to see how they train. I’ll definitely be updating my Derby Dating thoughts in the coming week as a girl has to keep an eye on all of her options!

Posted by dana on Apr 13 2008    
Filed Under: Pyro, 2008, Prove it to Me, War Pass, 3yo, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Racing

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Tale of Ekati winning the Wood as my phone flies over the balcony at Aqueduct (Sarah K. Andrew)

Let’s start by examining my proclivity for procrastination. The upsides are clear, I tend to do things I normally wouldn’t like wash dishes, dust bust numerous hairballs from the Home Zoo and post plenty of “interesting content“.

This pathological behavior does, however, have a downside… one of them being that I didn’t end up with enough time to publish a post about why Tale of Ekati was my pick of the day yesterday before I had to run out to catch the A train to the Big A. But we’ll get to that (yes, I’m now going to meta-procrastinate).

Here’s a post I’ve been meaning to write for awhile, “Facebook, it’s not just for the rotten kids”. Of the many social networking sites, Facebook is the only one that “has delivered” for me for anything other than time wasting (don’t get me wrong, it’s great for that!) and proving that you’re a bigger hipster than everyone else.

I met the Hennegan Brothers on Facebook, taken part in many great discussions with people inside the industry, and now hung out with a fun bunch of Fans of Thoroughbred Racing in New York.

Group creator, the fabulous Ernie Munick (giving the thumbs up next Pablo Fragoso), organized the day billed as “Day of Degeneracy” to get people in the group to come out to the track and actually hang out (instead of just post on the group’s wall).

He also arranged for us to have our picture taken in the winner’s circle! I always wondered how to go about getting “Happy Birthday Adam “Swifty” Wiener” in the NYRA program, and now I know… you just call and give them $300! Get a group of 10 folks together and can’t afford not to do it.

Here we are, in all our glory (I’m on the far right… ironic, no?):

Note the title of the picture “Thoroughbred Racing in New York “Facebook”. It also said this in the program! This is what I meant by pioneering an analog/digital mashup… this is no doubt the first time a NYRA program has the word Facebook in it… I love it when worlds collide!

Several of the TBA folks were included in this group, Jessica at Railbird, Teresa at Brooklyn Backstretch and Alan at Left at Gate (who’s not pictured… he was very busy live blogging the whole day).

John stopped by for a few moments in between meeting, greeting and kissing babies to get folks to the premiere in 2 weeks. And of course, Swifty was there (behind Ernie in the Classy & Classic sunglasses)… we wouldn’t miss a chance to be in the winner’s circle, or perhaps more appropriately, the Wiener’s Circle (Swifty = Adam Wiener).

Did I mention it was nice out? Notice us there, no coats. We ended up sitting outside all day in a box right in front of the finish line. We were on the third floor and there was a little balcony right in front of us that was gated. The gate was rail height (about 3 feet?) so at one point Jessica started to climb over it to get a better view of the paddock below. A helpful NYRA employee came over and unlocked it for us, no doubt guessing that it would just be easier than telling us to stop climbing over it all day.

The races were great and the place was packed. When I go to a track, I like to play the card… maybe not every race, but I find it distracting to have to pop over to the TV to watch a race elsewhere and then have my final decision making time eaten into. Surprise, I also procrastinate when it comes to wagering! With this in mind I decided to take pass on playing the bazillion great stakes races not at Aqueduct.

Prior to the Wood I was doing ok, compared to how I’ve been doing on the year I was doing great, but by normal standards I was doing just OK. I had the exacta in the 6th which brought me back to within $4 of being even. I didn’t do anything interesting in the 7th or 8th, although Jessica & Swifty had Temporary Saint in the Excelsior, but the Wood was different story.

I’m always refining my handicapping style, looking for more efficient or productive ways to analyze the data. Some things I’ve started to do recently have really been helpful. I take several passes at all of the horses, in one of those passes I note the predominant running style and type of pace the horse needs to perform well. While looking at this aspect of the Wood, I noted that Tale of Ekati needed a faster pace than he got in Louisiana Derby to do his best.

In another pass I examine the workouts. Is there any pattern, how did they work prior to their last races, have they been training for endurance, speed, etc. My note on Maryfield prior to the BC was “if she fires a bullet work before the race, seriously consider her”… and she did.

Combine Tale of Ekati’s comment line with his recent two works. “Brushed break, no factor” and two handled 4F gate works at 47.2 and 47.4 geared towards increasing his speed out of the gate. I then went to watch the replay of the Louisiana Derby… bingo. He broke very tentatively, got headed and then checked out of the race. Combine all of this with impending speed duel on the front end ensuring a brisk pace and it looked really promising for Take of Ekati.

I also thought the race would set up well for Court Vision, Bill Mott didn’t put Inner Light in to help Take of Ekati! This was one of those rare times when a flash of handicapping insight occurs with my ability to wager correctly. Here’s what I did:

Tale of Ekati to Win
Exacta box of Tale of Ekati & Court Vision
Trifecta box of Tale of Ekati, Court Vision & War Pass
Anak Nakal across the board (I thought he would improve under this pace scenario, and he did, but not enough).

Fast forward to the race… Tale of Ekati broke like a dream (he’s a good student and Barclay Tagg is a good teacher!) and Inner Light was pushing War Pass into fast fractions. Things were all going according to plan. As they came into the stretch War Pass still had a decent lead but Tale of Ekati starts to come on, and come on strong.

As they come to the wire it looks like Tale of Ekati is going to get up in time… we’re all on the balcony jumping up and down, screaming like nuts when I notice something fly out of my inside jacket pocket.

Just as Tale of Ekati is making my day, my attention is turned to the box seats below to see my phone land right behind some unsuspecting guy and what appeared to be his father! It took me a few seconds to realize that Tale of Ekati did indeed win AND that I hit the tri!

I’m also happy to report that not only does my phone still work, it didn’t even have a scratch… and perhaps the best part is it didn’t injure anyone!

As if this all wasn’t great enough, I also managed to get over my fear of betting horses to win. I liked Curlin to win the Classic, Swifty and I spent almost 2 hours the night before discussing the favorites in the classic to compare and contrast each of them. Curlin it was, and at 9/2 did I bet him to win? No. This time, just like Tale of Ekati, I learned from last mistake and corrected it under favorable conditions.

It was a perfect day on many levels… and I was lucky enough to share it with some great folks! Of course it was nice to have a bunch of witnesses to a rare flash of handicapping insight, but the best part by far was that, contrary to what seems to be going on, racing felt very much alive.

Posted by dana on Apr 06 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, TBA, Maryfield, War Pass, Sarah K. Andrew, Aqueduct, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati, Running Style, 2008, Internet, Trifecta, Exacta, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Curlin, Fans, Barclay Tagg, NYRA, Workouts, First Saturday in May, Hennegan Brothers, Come Back, Racing

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Yours truly is back from impersonating a business traveler (and not such a hot impersonation at that). I had a couple of posts I wanted to do but was either too tired or lacking free wireless. I have to get crackin’ on my handicapping for tomorrow, but you know I like to procrastinate!

I’ve been noticing a lot discussion about this year’s crop of 3yos lack of consistent 100+ Beyers, not only here but around ye olde blogosphere as well. I haven’t had a chance to investigate all the points everyone is making too closely (consider my first paragraph the excuse) so pardon me if someone else made this point already… I think this is really a function of the imbalance of running styles (as first noted here in the second to the last paragraph).

Are there any other confirmed speed horses besides War Pass? I don’t think there are (please let me know if I’m forgetting anyone). For example, if you look at Pyro’s Beyers in his two races with War Pass, they both broke 100. He had a 100 in the Champagne and 105 in the BC Juvie. And I’m not just talking about Pyro here… I believe all of the other contenders this year, aside from War Pass are either closers or stalkers, so how can you knock them for slower Beyers if they don’t have a speed horse to chase?

Posted by dana on Mar 28 2008    
Filed Under: Pace, Running Style, 2008, Pyro, 3yo, War Pass, Derby Trail

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