I had fully intended to play the Stephen Foster card at Churchill today. I assumed I would be able to do so by using Twinspires. Not the case. I then moved on to my YouBet account. Again, no luck.

Truth be told it’s probably for the best, I haven’t exactly been on fire at the windows. The good news is that I can watch the card using the pretty snazzy beta of Twinspires TV (I wish their race replays used the same interface, which would make them larger and easier to see). The other bit of good luck is that I’ll be able to watch the Stephen Foster on the aforementioned Channel 71 as the race day will be over at Belmont.

Naturally I didn’t discover this until I had gotten pretty far into my handicapping. I was uninspired by the 6th (Hysterical Lady just crushed) but here are my thoughts on the Regret and Northern Dancer.

In the Regret I’m not convinced by Pure Clan as the favorite. CJ’s Leelee, Zee Zee and Magical Theater is where I would be looking and given the current odds I might focus on Magical Theater.

As for the Northern Dancer, we all know I love Pyro and the pace looks to be right up his alley. I’m bummed that Tiz Now Tiz Then scratched as I think he might have helped to tire out Recapturetheglory. That being said, if I had access to some wagering I would probably take a shot with Pyro over Unbridled Vicar. Unbridled Vicar had a nice confidence builder last out and can close off a slow pace. I’m not convinced Visionaire and Texas Wildcatter will like the pace.

Ok, they’re loading in the gate for the Regret. Good luck to all!

Update: my inability to access wagering is already working out for the best as Pure Clan just won the Regret! CJ’s Lee Lee and Zee Zee placed and showed respectively.

Posted by dana on Jun 14 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Twinspires, Picks, Signal Wars, Churchill Downs, Technology, Handicapping, OTB, Simulcasting, Pyro, Racing

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Remember how shocked you were when War Pass was a non-factor in the Tampa Bay Derby? It could happen again tomorrow, or anytime for that matter. No horse is unbeatable.

This field reminds me of what it was like in high school when I was on the basketball team and we played Mansfield Malabar. They had a forward named Francine “The Machine” Lewis. She was all state, super tall and looked like she was at least 27.

Whenever we played that team we had to just suck it up, show up, play our best and hope for the best. To make it worse, because she was so good the gym would be packed. We never caught a break against Francine The Machine (she was actually a fantastic team player and her teammates where quite good as well), but you never know, one of these guys could catch a break tomorrow. At the very least one of the these guys could make my day wheeled under Big Brown!

Racecar Rhapsody is wholly unimpressive on paper. Although, if you look closely you’ll notice that he’s never far off the leader and has hit the board 3 out of 6 tries. He’s also versatile when it comes to surface with no real giant variation in his performance on dirt and synthetics. That’s all fine and dandy but watch his last race… actually, watch his last 2 races. He’s got a good turn of foot, a great closing kick and will knock a horse out of the way if need be. I really liked him going in to the Lexington and I really like him here. He likes a fast pace and I think he’ll get it.

It’s tough for me to pick between Riley Tucker and Giant Moon, both like a fast pace and both have been knocking on the door. Giant Moon has been training nicely and seemed a touch more game the Riley Tucker last out so I’ll tentatively go with Giant Moon.

I also have to give a little bit of a shout out to Hey Byrn, I really like how he’s been training. He’s kept the same time at 5f but is now breezing it + his whopper mile endurance work time has improved as well. His last race had a really doddering pace but he’s been able to hang with a faster pace, at least at mile, so I may give him a look too.

I will definitely be factoring Big Brown into my wagering, unlike in the Derby. I might even do something crazy like trifecta wheel him to the field (and no doubt if I did that, he would lose).

Assuming either that Big Brown wins or is a non-factor…

Good luck and please let everyone get home safe!

I’ll try to post my picks for the rest of the card before I go to “The Office” tomorrow.

Posted by dana on May 16 2008    
Filed Under: 3yo, 2008, Picks, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, Handicapping, Racing

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Well, obviously, but I’m actually talking about today’s 9th at Belmont, a.k.a. the Peter Pan!

Swifty tried to lure me to out to Neverland today but I declined thinking that might be able to pull off my annual cleaning (no luck so far, and look at the time!)… it’s only been the first race and things are going really well for him. Keep up the good work Swifty!

I’m going to take a pass on Casino Drive at such a short price. Last night on the phone Swifty, unaware of the Better Than Honour angle, asked “Casino Drive, WTF?” And rightfully so perhaps, as Alan wisely points out the inequity of judging Eight Belles’ connections as reckless when she had more experience than most of the field, yet Casino Drive’s quest for the Belmont can be characterized as a “historic quest“… barf. Annoyance aside, I am looking forward to seeing his performance, but am looking elsewhere in this field.

It doesn’t look to be a very speedy field, but Casino Drive and Spark Candle are kind of pace unknowns. I’m going with it being moderate to slow

In addition to Tomcito, I’m interested in Ready’s Echo and Cosmic… both have proven they can do well off a moderate to downright slow pace and both look to be improving.

Good luck to all, and let’s hope everyone comes home safe, all day for that matter!

Posted by dana on May 10 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Picks, 3yo, International Racing, Belmont, Handicapping, Racing

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Yours truly is a bit woolly headed today, which is ridiculous given that I only had two beers last night with one kick ass movie in between them. This makes me all the more impressed with my colleagues who can drink buckets of Funky Cold Medina and then compose lengthy well thought out emails!

As for the Lexington, there’s a lot to like! I’m looking for St. Joe and Samba Rooster to set a fast pace and more than likely knock each other out as I don’t see any indication that either of them can rate. I would have to see some endurance works rather than speed works given that both of them are stretching out, St. Joe more than Samba Rooster.

I really like Atoned and I’ll be happy if he does well but I’m not convinced here. I know he can get the distance but I’m not sure about the surface (even though his last work at Keenland was nice) and I’m not sure what he’s gonna do with a fast pace given that all but his first two races where on the slow side. Of course a faster pace could be just what he needs but I’m going to look elsewhere today.

Salute the Sarge looks interesting and I’m somewhat tempted but not all synthetic surfaces are equal so I’m not counting on his west coast synthetic record to automatically transfer here. I think he could handle the pace and the distance but I’m going to look elsewhere given his odds.

There are 3 that I like almost equally, Racecar Rhapsody, Riley Tucker and Tomcito. All will do well with a fast pace and all of their running styles will do well with a speed duel, should it materialize.

Racecar Rhapsody is cutting back in a 2nd off start… this should suite him. He likes Keenland and if Tomcito doesn’t like the surface I think RR is the closer here. I really liked his inside move in the Lane’s End and thought he looked game in the stretch, give him a faster pace on a proven track and he looks attractive.

Let me just say that I really want Tomcito to win because I really want him in the Derby. I’m not saying he’s my pick to win the Derby but I think he’ll make it more interesting. After seeing his first U.S. performance we can now tell that he will probably do well with fast fractions, but in addition to the concern about the surface, I’m also wondering if this is actually enough distance for him? Also of note, his handled gate work at Keenland is kind of insane!

And last but not least there’s Riley Tucker. His last out at the distance at Keenland was nice and I’m guessing he’ll do a bit better off a faster pace but he’ll have to work get a good position breaking from the 10th. It’s hard to tell anything from Mott’s training style sometimes and this is one of those times… consistent 4F at 48 for the last 4 works.

I just got off the phone with Swifty… he also likes Behindathebar. My concern about him was the same with Salute the Sarge, not to assume all the synthetics are equal. I think he can do well given the pace so I’ll probably include him too if for no other reason than to avoid what happens every time Swifty and like different horses.

Good luck everyone!

Posted by dana on Apr 19 2008    
Filed Under: Picks, 2008, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Racing

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Well, it’s 3:15 on Saturday and I’ve just finished handicapping the Blue Grass… and it’s the first race I’ve finished. I’m pretty sure I can get through the Arkansas Derby and maybe even the Holy Bull if I’m lucky!

I could use the excuse that this race was really hard to figure out as the reason why I’m getting so little done, but that wouldn’t be the truth. However, that doesn’t detract from the fact that it was really hard to figure this one out!

Between the clear division of those with synthetic experience & those without + questionable pace scenario one could go back and forth about how things are going to shake out (and I did).

I’m going with the idea that Pyro, my current favorite for the Derby, will not win here. His works have been ultra consistent and his last work over the surface looks exactly like his last work before his last win + he’ll likely get the same kind of pace, but let’s face it, he doesn’t have to win. And as Valerie has pointed out, no Derby winner of the last 10 years has won this race (including Street Sense).

There are a couple items of note in this race. I’m guessing that Pletcher has entered the talented turf specialist Cowboy Cal not only to see what he’ll do here, but to create a nice pace scenario for Monba. It looks like they worked together last out and Monba did a touch better… it was a nice work for both of them.

Miner’s Claim and perhaps even Stonebird seem like they might be on or near the lead as well… while I’m not expecting anything close to the pace in the Wood, it could be a touch faster than we’ve seen in the majority of prep races.

Cool Coal Man looks great… his last work is a nice improvement at the distance, he’s proven at the distance and it bears noting that he’s in the same post position as his last two, which means he should set-up perfectly. However, he’s a total wild card on the surface.

Big Truck also looks great, even better than Cool Coal Man in my opinion because of that last work over the track + the same bullet pattern as prior to his last win. It looks like he’s gonna like the surface. Visionaire’s last work also seems to indicate that he’ll like the surface.

As for the proven synthetic runners Halo Najib looks like he could really improve here… if he runs on the pace I think he could be in the mix at the end. Could he be this year’s Dominican? Medjool looks like he could make some noise too.

Posted by dana on Apr 12 2008    
Filed Under: Pyro, 2008, Picks, 3yo, Dominican, Street Sense, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Racing

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Brass Hat winning the Mass Cap (Imfedore)

I was finally able to do some handicapping this morning and am off to “the office” to play the Fairgrounds card. Things over at Take Back The Race are progressing nicely, it’s really great to read all the comments. I’ll be posting some more banners here for folks to grab and display later this weekend… on to the picks!

Euroears looks tough and Noonmark looks promising but I’m going to go with Semephore Man. He’s held his own with both Bordonaro and Diabolical (who just crushed at Nad Al Sheba). His works are also fantastic! My questions about him are can he ship and can he rate? He’s definitely the horse for the distance and I’m gonna take my shot with him. King of the Roxy is a wild card to me here, he should do well at the distance and he’s won off a break so I may use him too.

Grasshopper looks tough to beat, but you know I’m gonna try… and I’m gonna try with Brass Hat! I think the pace will be on the slow side with Silver Lord leading the way and Brass Hat is the only one, aside from Grasshopper, who has done well off a slow pace. I would consider Magna Graduate but I think he needs a faster pace. Circular Quay is a bit of wild card but I’m hoping he takes some sentimental money (but I’m sure Brass Hat will too). Reporting for Duty has put in two nice efforts and could do well off a soft pace too.

I love a turf race when it’s soft! I liked Daytona last out and of course think he has a shot here but I really like Brilliant and Fracas. Both like it soft and both have gone up against some stiff competition. I love Brilliant’s odds and his last race Saratoga was on rock hard turf so I’m expecting him to really improve here + he’s improved off a break in the past. Fracas training pattern looks like he might run a big one + he’s placed to Dylan Thomas and likes it soft.

I’m taking a pass on the Fairground Oaks, it’s either gonna be Indian Blessing or Proud Spell, take your pick. If it’s one of the other two I’ll be supremely bummed that I didn’t have her.

Finally, a Derby prep with some pace! I’m not sure if what I’m gonna do here because Take of Ekati and Majestic Warrior are big wild cards. Both have been training well and will benefit from J Be K’s pace, as will Pyro. The pace should also help Unbridled Vicar and Blackberry Road so who knows! I think Pyro will win it but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the aforementioned colts won. I’m not sure Stevil, My Pal Charlie or Yankee Bravo can handle what looks to be a fast pace.

Best of luck to all!

Posted by dana on Mar 08 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Fairgrounds, Picks, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell, Take Back the Race, Pyro, Majestic Warrior, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Circular Quay, Turf, Grasshopper, 3yo, Racing

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That’s the prognosis for my ancient forced air heating window unit, i.e., the only heat source in my apartment. This little unforeseen event ate up almost all of my handicapping time today however, I managed to do the Sam F. Davis in between discussions about which part may or may not be the problem. That being said, here’s what I think…

On first glance, Z Humor looks like the pick, but after watching the Delta Downs Jackpot, I’m not convinced. With Honey Honey Honey in the mix I think the pace will be comparable to the DeD Jackpot but I think this also bodes well for Smooth Air, who’s had some improving endurance works in preparation for stretching out. Were his last two wins due to perfect trips and his talent in the slop? It’s hard to tell. I understand why one would choose to dismiss him, but given the pace scenario + works, I think he has a shot.

Enter Fierce Wind and Wise Answer. The former is improving in both performance and work outs + the slight cutback should work in his favor. Can he rate? Can he ship? Will he handle the pace? He looked great in his last two out, albeit tiring a bit in the last at 1 1/8th. The latter is also coming back to a scenario that has worked for him in the past. He can rate, can he ship? He seems more likely to handle the pace than Fierce Wind.

Big Truck is a bit a of wild card to me, he had a rough trip in the Remsen and then the slop in the Hucheson. I want to see what he does this time out but I’m not willing to put any money on him. I like that his 5F work time has improved and that he’s been training for distance, but I’ll wait and see.

In the interesting long shot department I’m willing to put a little money on Dynamic Wayne. He can ship and he’s closed off a slow pace, at his price I’m willing to bet that he might improve with a hotter pace. And just so I mention everyone, Wonder Mon has sat close on slow pace and closed on a moderate pace and it bears noting that his last work is the same time as the one prior to his last win.

Bottom line, I think this race a bit more open than it seems. I’ll probably box Smooth Air, Fierce Wind and Wise Answer with a little Dynamic Wayne across the board. Good luck everyone!

Posted by dana on Feb 16 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Picks, 3yo, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Racing

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Daytona & Mike Smith winning the San Gabriel, can they do it again this weekend? (Charles Pravata)

Given the insanity of the west coast, I decided to only focus on Fairgrounds this weekend.

A little while ago I was eating my lunch in front of the OTB channel. It was just before the 5th race at Aqueduct. I thought the #1 horse, Boggy Creek Dancer, looked really good in the parade, very calm and self assured. The rest of them looked a little too antsy. I wasn’t surprised at BCD’s long odds as I’ve seen him race before, but he did look really good.

In the stretch it looked like the #9, Majestic Melody, really had it, sitting off the pace and coming on with a nice run. Out of nowhere Boggy Creek Dancer flew by the rest of the field to win by a couple of lengths and pay $40.20. I took this as a hopeful sign for the rest of my day!

I’m betting against Grasshopper here. I never bought the hype about him as the Street Sense he placed to in the Travers was not the same Street Sense that won the Derby (as evidenced by his miserable BC performance).

I like Silver Lord and Magna Graduate in that order, I may box them but since they’re both current at 3-1 with 15 minutes to post, I may take a pass. (I just boxed them, wish me luck… Note: Grasshopper just crushed the field by 3 lengths and took me out of the P4, but at least Silver Lord beat Magna Graduate!).

This was the toughest one for me and I went deep on my Pick 4 here, but could have actually gone deeper. Better Talk Now is clearly is a stand out, however he doesn’t do well off a lay off (with the exception of winning the Dixie after bombing in Japan). I’m including him in my P4, but won’t bet him in the race.

I like Daytona but have no idea how he’ll ship or if he’ll like the turf at Fairgrounds. I think he’ll control the pace, which should be good for him. Silverfoot is interesting to me, the 8yo missed last year and in his return race looked game but got caught in traffic, I think he could improve. Another interesting one is Baby First, he ran a nice race last out as his first in North America and will probably improve as well. From what I can tell Inca King is due for a regression after 3 wins and I’m pretty sure since I left him off my P4 that he’ll go wire to wire. (Note: that really doesn’t matter now, does it?) I also think Sterwins is worth a look, I think he’ll like the distance more than French Beret and can probably do the best on what I’m guessing will be a slowish pace.

It’s hard to go against Indian Blessing, but at those odds I’m going to try…although I did I have her singled on one of my loosing P4 tickets. I can’t tell if she wasn’t fond of the Santa Anita surface last out or if it really was a distance issue. The more I think about it the more I lean towards the surface because she handled the distance so beautifully in the BC. It looks to me like High Surf and possibly even Miss Missile could give her some pressure. Let’s say for the sake of argument that it was a distance issue last out, in that case both Proud Spell and Highest Class interest me.

Proud Spell is pretty obvious but you might wonder why I would say Highest Class over Jolie the Cat, particularly when Jolie the Cat beat Highest Class last out. Distance & pace. Highest Class had 2 wins at the distance before cutting back in the Tiffany Lass, also Jolie the Cat had the slow pace all to herself, that won’t the be case today. Even throwing out the unnaturally fast fractions she set at Santa Anita, most of these horses haven’t seen anything like a pace that Indian Blessing can set. That being said, Proud Spell has shown she can do it from off a fast pace and I’m interested to see what Highest Class will do here.

A.K.A, the paceless wonder. It looks like it’s gonna be up to The Darp to set the pace again although he might get some help from Signature Move. This does not bode well for Blackberry Road, Visionaire and even Pyro, but looks great for Z Fortune and possibly Unbridled Vicar.

You can’t go wrong with Curlin as your morning training partner so I’m still convinced Pyro has a shot even if the pace isn’t so hot. Unbridled Vicar is my wise guy play here, I think the slow pace won’t be as negative for him as it will be for some of the others plus I wonder if he could have won his last out at the distance, and that was also a slow pace.

Daytona just won the Fairground Handicap and Sterwins showed in a photo to Jazz Quest, although I boxed Silver Foot and Sterwins. I just can’t deal with 2-1 odds… always the value player! Best of luck to all!

Posted by dana on Feb 09 2008    
Filed Under: Fairgrounds, Aqueduct, 2008, Picks, Proud Spell, Pyro, Charles Pravata, Curlin, Street Sense, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Grasshopper, Racing

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View from my cube

I’ve been busy, and will be for a good part of the prep season, but at least I have the calendar to keep me company. Now that the whining is out of the way, here are my picks… quickly, cuz I gotta get to the office to see JZ Warrior’s return!

Swale:
I’ll take St. Joe here, the cutback should be good for him + his last 2 works have been good. Wincat looks tough but I wanna see him against more experienced runners before I’ll take a short price. My only question about St. Joe is does he like conventional dirt or were his last two efforts a product of distance? Coal Play looks interesting too.

Robert B Lewis:
I like Crown of Thorns and Coast Guard. Crown of Thorns has some needed endurance building works and Coast Guard is getting blinkers + he looks to me to be most likely to stretch out.

Donn:
I’m not sold on Daaher here, they’ll be more pace than his last 2 + more distance. In his win at the distance he didn’t have any pressure and I don’t think that will be the case today. Mind you, I’ll use him, but I don’t think he’s a sure thing, he might also regress.

I like AP Arrow, of he, Fairbanks and Brass Hat I think he’s the strongest. He really likes this distance and I liked his performance in the Clark. I’ll also throw in Dr. Googles Boogles (which is very fun to say!) in for fun. He’s placed 2 out of 3 times at the distance and looks to me be improving. I’m not sold on Einstein or Kiss the Kid here, I’m always leary of turf horses who’s only wins off turf were in turf races moved to dirt. Although I’m interested to see how Einstein will do!

Santa Monica:
I probably won’t wager here but I like Hysterical Lady better than Pussycat Doll. Hysterical Lady has handled synthetic surfaces well while PCD hasn’t + I think the cutback is just right. I might do a tri-box with including HL, PCD & Overly Tempting.

Strub:
Tiago looks hard to beat, he needed the last race + this is his distance. However, you all know how I feel about Slew’s Tizzy. I really think he’s got a shot. He hasn’t had much luck at the distance but I know he’ll love the surface. I’m interested to see if he’ll rate or get in a speed duel, which could undo him. I’ll box them + depending on Slew’s Tizzy’s odds I’ll take him across the board as well. Air Commander is a “prove it to me” here.

Best of luck to all!

Posted by dana on Feb 02 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Picks, Handicapping, Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Racing

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