Happy First Saturday in May! To be honest, I’m a having a little trouble getting jazzed about today with the late scratch of I Want Revenge after all the other defections and breathtaking splendor of Rachel Alexandra being wasted on connections that see the Triple Crown only as a function of showcasing stallions. Talk about a bring down, at least they’re out and proud about it and not trying to pretend that it determines the best 3yo in training… I’ll give them that.

Moving on, another reason why I’m having a hard time getting jazzed is that I felt there was more value apparent in the Oaks card, such as my picks of Miss Isella and Bullsbay, than I can find today. That doesn’t mean I’m not going to try!

Kodiak Kowboy looks tough to beat in the Churchill Down, this is his distance and if the track is still sloppy or off I might single him in any multi-race wagers. An acception to that would be Accredit who should benefit from the added distance… leave him off at your own risk. The Roundhouse is an interesting long shot to me as he’s improving and has placed to Kodiak Kowboy in the past (although he was the fav in the race).

Update: Accredit for the win! Still alive in the Pick 6 and Pick 3. The Roundhouse got up for the 3rd, was really hoping he could get place as I had a little exacta box of the two. Kodiak Kowboy was hard ridden half way through, not his day.

The Eight Belles (nee La Troienne) is a little tough. I’ll go with Just Jenda here but will throw in Warrior Maid and Lady’s Laughter for some fun. Warrior Maid is cutting back to a distance that suits her and has done well on the second off and Lady’s Laughter is more of hunch play than anything. She’s won at a mile on the dirt and placed by a neck to Stone Legacy, who was only 20 or so lengths behind the 2009 Triple Crown winner yesterday. I’m having trouble getting jazzed about Four Gifts as the favorite but the distance should suit her and she’s reunited with her winning jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, which is always something to take note of.

Update: Ugh, Four Gifts beats Just Jenda and leaves me playing for 5 of 6 in the Pick 6. Warrior Maid gets third. Oh, I’m also out of the Pick 3 now too, damn. Time to order pizza!

I really liked Ballymore Lady in the Distaff Turf Mile (look, a race that’s still called Distaff!! ok, maybe my mood is lifting) but I’ll use Elusive Lady, Visit and Lemon Chiffon. I do like Tizaquenna but wonder if she needs to sets the slow pace to win on the turf? I’m not sure that’s going to happen with Rasierra in the race so I’ll stick with my other 3.

Update: Guess that answers that question about Tizaqueena, she can sit off the pace and win! Dawn After Dawn, who looked ready to rock in the parade, hung tough for second while Lemon Chiffon was third. It looked to me like Smith struck Elusive Lady with his whip in the stretch when as he passed with Lemon Chiffon. Elusive Lady, my pick, definitely stopped.

I’m looking forward to betting against Informed Decision in the Humana Distaff, but will not leave her off any multi-race tickets. She hasn’t fared as well switching from synthetic to dirt and Secret Gypsy and Game Face look tough.

Update: I only played a small exacta of Royal Michelle over a few horses because she looked really good in the parade but Informed Decision blew by the rest of the field in the stretch. Naturally I left her off my desperation Pick 3. I think my frat boy neighbors are having a Derby party, maybe I should ask them who they like, ugh!

Before I handicapped the Woodford Reserve I thought I might single Einstein, but regardless of the fact that that Einstein loves the distance and surface combo, Proudinsky and Zambezi Sun are interesting and should do well on the softer turf. Proudinsky is on a roll and training well for Bobby Frankel while Zambezi Sun should finally show what European turf class is about after running on concrete turf and then poly out in Cali. This one should be interesting. After just watching the first turf race of the day, the outside post should also be helpful to Zambezi Sun and Einstein.

Update: As it turns out, I could have singled Einstein. What a race! Very thrilling stretch battle with Einstein getting up in time to beat a very game Cowboy Cal. At least I’m alive in the double. It’s now confirmed that my neighbors are having a Derby party, they’re all dressed up and when their door opened I heard someone explaining what Quinella is.

And now for the big one, the breeding showcase, the Stallion Derby! Like many a player my pick to win is Friesan Fire. I took me until now to really settle on that as my official pick. I almost, ALMOST went with Desert Party.

My A-Team, top 3 are: Friesan Fire / Desert Party / Papa Clem. I would not be surprised to see any of those three win. I will definitely have tri and exact boxes of those three + win bets on Desert Party and Papa Clem (Friesan Fire’s odds will probably be too low for me for a win bet… but if he looks good, who knows!).

I’ll also use Musket Man and Summer Bird. I may do a $1 3/5/all ticket ($204) but am not entirely sure yet. I also ready have some interesting live futuracta tickets with Friesan Fire on top so I’ll wait to see the parade and spend the rest of the afternoon trying to figure out how to construct my tickets.

Good luck, let’s get them all home safe and may the best stallion win!

Update: I had a brutal day at the windows but as it turns out, the only gelding in the field won… take that “Stallion Derby”!

Posted by dana on May 02 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Einstein, Picks, Shaun Bridgmohan, Friesan Fire, Desert Party, Pick 3, I Want Revenge, Rachel Alexandra, Churchill Downs, Trifecta, Bobby Frankel, Handicapping, Derby Trail, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Larry Jones, Kentucky Derby, Exacta, Pick 6, Pick 4, Racing

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Insert obligatory sentiment about being bummed yet relieved that Zenyatta was scratched. Follow-up with note about looking forward to seeing her debut.

Now that that’s out of the way… I didn’t handicap the Aegan Turf Sprint so let’s start with Zenyatta-less Louisville Handicap.

One Caroline will probably win, but it’s worth noting that her smallest winning margin aside from her maiden win was with Swift Temper right behind her pressing the pace. So far the track has been speed favoring so it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Swift Temper steal it but I’m gonna take a shot with Miss Isella. Unlike Swift Temper who has run 5 times at Churchill and only showed once, Miss Isella has won 3 and placed once for the same amount of races. She’s also won 2nd off and with the switch from synthetics to dirt. I think she’ll sit off the pace on the outside (the money spot so far) and with any luck she can get it done. Unbridled Belle is always a wild card for me, I like her a little bit here as she does well off a break but she doesn’t seem to like the slop. No doubt she’ll be short a price as well. I might even box Miss Isella and Swift Temper depending on how the look in the parade. I will definitely use One Caroline in Pick 3s but am looking elsewhere in the race.

Update: Miss Isella scores and pays $19.40, the day is off to a great start!

In the Edgewood Laragh looks to be very short price. I’ll single her in Pick a 3 & Pick 4 but am looking at Magical Affair and Abbott Hall for value.

Update: Laragh won impressively with a quick closing Magical Affair getting up for second, I’ve still got one Pick 4 ticket alive but am out of the Pick 3.

Dr. Pleasure looks like he could wire the field in the Alysheba. Macho Again and Mambo in Seattle will probably take most of the money and perhaps Macho Again can make it 2 back to back on a sloppy track, but I’ll be looking to the better priced Bullsbay, and long shot Shift in Power, who both love Churchill and the distance. I don’t think Cool Coal Man will press the pace too much so both Bullsbay and Shift in Power might get the moderate that suits them. Off course, Macho Again might ruin my long shot fun, but so be it!

Update: Bullsbay gets by an impressive looking Cool Coal Man, I didn’t play the race right but have 2 live Pick 3 tickets.

I’m not going too wild with long shots in the American Turf as I think Stormalory and Julien Leparoux will get the job done. I also like Battle of Hastings but I do think Bruce N Autumn is interesting as he’ll be back on the turf at Churchill, the site of his only win which was exactly at the distance. I might throw him into a tri with the other 2 for fun but am unlikely to use him in a Pick 4.

Update: Sadly, Stormalory broke down after taking a bad step during the break and had to by euthanized. Condolences to his connections, Orthodox pulled a major upset over Battle of Hastings. If there’s any upside to be had in these situations, it was nice to see Jon Court of Animal Planet’s Jockeys show get some vindication and nice pay day on Orthodox.

And for the Oaks, it’s hard to see Rachel Alexandra losing, but if she does I definitely don’t want to miss out on the fun! It’s not like she’s undefeated and anyone can have an off day. Obviously I’ll single her in a Pick 4 but I think Justwhistledixie, Gabby’s Golden Gal and Flying Spur all look very interesting. I’ll have one crazy Pick 4 ticket including those 3 and wait to see how the look in the parade before I decide how to play it.

Update: Feast your eyes on the incredible greatness of Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Triple Crown winner… oh, wait. Dammit!

Good luck, and let’s get everyone home safe!

Posted by dana on May 01 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Impressive, Jon Court, Rachel Alexandra, Pick 3, Zenyatta, Picks, 3yo, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Pick 4, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Oaks, Racing

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(Simon Bak)

Today marks the first weekend installment of the HANA pool party, which is the 6th at Hawthorne. The Pretty Jenny is $100k 6F stakes race for state bred 3yo fillies.

Today has been all about errand running and attending to things around GbG manor, so I’ve only done the quickest of looks. That being said this is an interesting race, even though sprints are not generally my favorite types of races to handicap.

There’s plenty of speed of in this race and plenty of horses coming off a decent break. A quick glance at yesterday’s HAW races reveals that in all but one instance, horses who sat off the pace in 6F races won.

With that in mind, Lose None, Miss Fontana, Bow Tie Pasta, Cart’s Zenforus and Happy Henrietta all look plausible. B N Graced N Glory also jumps out on paper with 2 consecutive wins at HAW at 6F, but in the slop.

I’ll wait to take a look at them before I make any decisions but I’m most curious to see B N Graced N Glory, Lose None, Bow Tie Pasta and Happy Henrietta, who has won off a break equivalent to the one she’s returning from today.

As usual, you can pick up free PPs, Thoroughgraph data and picks from Hawthorn’s GM and resident handicapper Jim Miller at HANA. Good luck and have fun!

Update: Bow Tie Pasta took the race by several lengths, followed up by Cart’s Linda, Lose None and Tessie’s Tilbury. Yours truly is now 0-4 in HANA pool party having gone with B N Graced N Glory to win and tri box of B N Graced N Glory, Lose None and Happy Henrietta. There was a touch of drama as #9 Cumulonimble dumped her rider out of the gate was loose on the track. After the race the announcer mentioned she was still loose and now going in the wrong direction, although she was never on camera. An outrider safely grabbed her not too long after the race ended.

Another note, the dumped rider was the tall Brandon Meier that appeared briefly on Jockeys, Win or Die Trying. No word on his condition.

Posted by dana on Apr 25 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Jockeys TV Show, HANA, Picks, Sprint, Handicapping, You Can Help, 3yo, Racing

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Yee Haw, it’s a pool party y’all! (Jacob…K)

Today’s third installment of the HANA Pool Party takes place in the 3rd at Mountaineer in the exacta pool. As usual there are free PPs and other items over HANA and this week local Mountaineer handicapper Mark Patterson offers his take.

I love the exacta, not only is it my favorite wager, it’s also my most successful wager (pretty sure I just jinxed myself!). I’ve been home with a nasty cold the past few days but I managed to look over the race yesterday.

The race is pretty evenly matched and while the favorite, Enter the Lion, did stand out a bit, most notably for winning on the cut back, I’m more than likely going to throw him out. Looking back over the charts for the last days uncovered that front runners and stalkers have done overwhelmingly better than off the pace types. The two races where Enter the Lion has won have been won from the off the pace and while he ran his last two on the pace (as if they were sprints) my guess is that he’ll be back off the pace when in sprinting company.

Currently I’m interested in 5, 6, 7 & 8 and am going to wait until I get to eyeball them in the parade to figure out how I’m going to play it. I may just box them all up if they all look decent and the price is right. Legacy Hunter (#5) has done well at the distance and is cutting back, an angle that’s been fairly successful for his trainer, who’s overall stats aren’t bad. The forecast is also calling for rain tonight and this one has won in the slop, if it comes that.

I’m not sure why Take Aim (#6) isn’t the favorite as he’s the only one coming off a win. Kris’s Honor (#7) has also won at the distance and racked up a string of 5 place & shows usually within a length or so of the winner at the end of last year and Hey Reemer is returning to the dirt and reunited with his winning jockey, one of my favorite angles! All of these horses are on the pace runners so they fit the apparent bias going on at Mountaineer.

I’m happy this week’s pool party takes place at night, so all of us working stiffs that can’t watch from work have a chance to watch/wager in real time (even though I’m home sick today and could have watched any race). As always, good luck & have fun!

Update: the one front runner I tossed, Ameliaslandmissle (#9), won at 14-1 and Kris’s Honor (#7) at 3-1 placed. The $2 exacta, or perfecta as they call it at Mountaineer, payed $136. At least my assessment of the front runner bias was right on… see you next week!

Posted by dana on Apr 14 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, HANA, Picks, Exacta, Handicapping, Racing

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(JSDesign)

Just a reminder that HANA’s second pool party, Target Tampa, is tomorrow. It’s a Pick 3 starting with the 6th race.

CanGamble offers a nice overview of various Pick 3 strategies if multi-race exotics aren’t your thing.

I didn’t spend a ton of time on this and I really like to see claimers in the parade, but here it goes:

$1 2,4,7,10 / 2,4,11 / 4,5 = total $24

I thought the first leg was the toughest and went with several of the chalky picks but threw in Zaam Time (#10 at 30-1) based solely on her ability to rate and win as the rest of field looks to be on the pace types.

I capped the next leg, a turf race, assuming it will be on the turf but liked one of the AEs who’s only win was on dirt with improving turf form (#11). Doctor Carina (#2) is dropping in class and coming in off a freshening with some endurance works. She’s a bit chalky so I’m also going to include Angel in our Jam (#4) as her last win was at the distance on the turf at Tampa + her trainer has a couple of nice stats, 11% first time with team & 50% 61-180 days. 50%! That fact that she’s 20-1 made her more attractive than #3 Barefoot Babe who does seem more reliable at the distance but is 3-1. I’m wondering if Barefoot Babe doesn’t prefer softer turf, her only win was on turf listed as Good and she just hasn’t been able to get up in her last few. Nick’s Girl (#11) looks to be knocking on the door to me. Last out was 6w and just missed by neck, a race that Barefoot Babe ran 5th in.

I love the last leg, particularly because my two picks have decent odds. Williamsburg (#4) looks like a sprinter and this is a 1 mile 40 but his last 2 works have been 5f and his trainer’s sprint/route is 21% (along assorted other nice percentages). They’re also jumping him up in class so I’m guessing his connections feel pretty confident, works for me at 5-1! So Very Irish on the other hand is proven at the distance and can either set the pace or rate. It looks like See I A will set the pace but maybe with a little pressure from Williamsburg he might flame out like his last race. That sets up well for both of my picks. Of course, it could set up REALLY well for African Skies, the 5-2 favorite who’s dropping in class and likes to close, but where’s the fun in that? It is a pool party after all!

Posted by dana on Apr 06 2009    
Filed Under: Claimer, 2009, HANA, Pick 3, Running Style, Picks, Handicapping, You Can Help, Turf, Racing

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