(spin979)

Just when you thought you’d heard all the stories there are to be told about the Breeder’s Cup, here’s one more… the TBA is full of kick ass handicappers!

We have an evolving tradition of posting our picks for big events. For last year’s BC we posted them on Patrick’s blog (I picked 3 winners). I believe we posted our picks for the Derby card by way of Google docs but can’t find them (does anyone have that link?).

This year, we posted our BC picks on the TBA homepage (permalink here). We picked a winner for each race and used a mythical $2 WPS bet to track how we faired.

At first I was bummed, using this method I didn’t break even. Then I realized that I picked FOUR winners, which is not too shabby. In fact, not only did I pick 4 winners, so did 4 other folks AND Michael of Gathering the Wind picked FIVE winners! This prompted me to look around a bit to see how fared against others.

The NTRA posted, in their words, Expert Picks, which indeed did include many an expert. How did we do compared to them? Pretty damn good! None of the experts at NTRA picked 5 winners and only Larry Borstein and Mike Watchmaker picked 4!

Let’s look a little closer at the TBA picks. Not only were we impressive in the straight up picking winners department, but our In the Money (ITM) percentages were pretty darn good too. Kevin of Colin’s Ghost was 9/14 ITM for a whopping 64%… take that Pletcher, Asmussen, Dutrow! Also, 17 of the 18 TBA handicappers were 29% or above ITM!

Google docs spreadsheet didn’t let me link the blog name but you can link directly to them by using the TBA navigation to the right, except for the Magic Beer Bottle, which you can find here.

Congrats TBA handicappers, I’d say we did as well as fillies and Euros this year!

Posted by dana on Nov 02 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Picks, TBA, NTRA, Breeders' Cup, Handicapping, Racing

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I had fully intended to play the Stephen Foster card at Churchill today. I assumed I would be able to do so by using Twinspires. Not the case. I then moved on to my YouBet account. Again, no luck.

Truth be told it’s probably for the best, I haven’t exactly been on fire at the windows. The good news is that I can watch the card using the pretty snazzy beta of Twinspires TV (I wish their race replays used the same interface, which would make them larger and easier to see). The other bit of good luck is that I’ll be able to watch the Stephen Foster on the aforementioned Channel 71 as the race day will be over at Belmont.

Naturally I didn’t discover this until I had gotten pretty far into my handicapping. I was uninspired by the 6th (Hysterical Lady just crushed) but here are my thoughts on the Regret and Northern Dancer.

In the Regret I’m not convinced by Pure Clan as the favorite. CJ’s Leelee, Zee Zee and Magical Theater is where I would be looking and given the current odds I might focus on Magical Theater.

As for the Northern Dancer, we all know I love Pyro and the pace looks to be right up his alley. I’m bummed that Tiz Now Tiz Then scratched as I think he might have helped to tire out Recapturetheglory. That being said, if I had access to some wagering I would probably take a shot with Pyro over Unbridled Vicar. Unbridled Vicar had a nice confidence builder last out and can close off a slow pace. I’m not convinced Visionaire and Texas Wildcatter will like the pace.

Ok, they’re loading in the gate for the Regret. Good luck to all!

Update: my inability to access wagering is already working out for the best as Pure Clan just won the Regret! CJ’s Lee Lee and Zee Zee placed and showed respectively.

Posted by dana on Jun 14 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Twinspires, Picks, Signal Wars, Churchill Downs, Technology, Handicapping, OTB, Simulcasting, Pyro, Racing

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Remember how shocked you were when War Pass was a non-factor in the Tampa Bay Derby? It could happen again tomorrow, or anytime for that matter. No horse is unbeatable.

This field reminds me of what it was like in high school when I was on the basketball team and we played Mansfield Malabar. They had a forward named Francine “The Machine” Lewis. She was all state, super tall and looked like she was at least 27.

Whenever we played that team we had to just suck it up, show up, play our best and hope for the best. To make it worse, because she was so good the gym would be packed. We never caught a break against Francine The Machine (she was actually a fantastic team player and her teammates where quite good as well), but you never know, one of these guys could catch a break tomorrow. At the very least one of the these guys could make my day wheeled under Big Brown!

Racecar Rhapsody is wholly unimpressive on paper. Although, if you look closely you’ll notice that he’s never far off the leader and has hit the board 3 out of 6 tries. He’s also versatile when it comes to surface with no real giant variation in his performance on dirt and synthetics. That’s all fine and dandy but watch his last race… actually, watch his last 2 races. He’s got a good turn of foot, a great closing kick and will knock a horse out of the way if need be. I really liked him going in to the Lexington and I really like him here. He likes a fast pace and I think he’ll get it.

It’s tough for me to pick between Riley Tucker and Giant Moon, both like a fast pace and both have been knocking on the door. Giant Moon has been training nicely and seemed a touch more game the Riley Tucker last out so I’ll tentatively go with Giant Moon.

I also have to give a little bit of a shout out to Hey Byrn, I really like how he’s been training. He’s kept the same time at 5f but is now breezing it + his whopper mile endurance work time has improved as well. His last race had a really doddering pace but he’s been able to hang with a faster pace, at least at mile, so I may give him a look too.

I will definitely be factoring Big Brown into my wagering, unlike in the Derby. I might even do something crazy like trifecta wheel him to the field (and no doubt if I did that, he would lose).

Assuming either that Big Brown wins or is a non-factor…

Good luck and please let everyone get home safe!

I’ll try to post my picks for the rest of the card before I go to “The Office” tomorrow.

Posted by dana on May 16 2008    
Filed Under: 3yo, 2008, Picks, Pimlico, Preakness, Triple Crown, Handicapping, Racing

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Well, obviously, but I’m actually talking about today’s 9th at Belmont, a.k.a. the Peter Pan!

Swifty tried to lure me to out to Neverland today but I declined thinking that might be able to pull off my annual cleaning (no luck so far, and look at the time!)… it’s only been the first race and things are going really well for him. Keep up the good work Swifty!

I’m going to take a pass on Casino Drive at such a short price. Last night on the phone Swifty, unaware of the Better Than Honour angle, asked “Casino Drive, WTF?” And rightfully so perhaps, as Alan wisely points out the inequity of judging Eight Belles’ connections as reckless when she had more experience than most of the field, yet Casino Drive’s quest for the Belmont can be characterized as a “historic quest“… barf. Annoyance aside, I am looking forward to seeing his performance, but am looking elsewhere in this field.

It doesn’t look to be a very speedy field, but Casino Drive and Spark Candle are kind of pace unknowns. I’m going with it being moderate to slow

In addition to Tomcito, I’m interested in Ready’s Echo and Cosmic… both have proven they can do well off a moderate to downright slow pace and both look to be improving.

Good luck to all, and let’s hope everyone comes home safe, all day for that matter!

Posted by dana on May 10 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Picks, 3yo, International Racing, Belmont, Handicapping, Racing

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Yours truly is a bit woolly headed today, which is ridiculous given that I only had two beers last night with one kick ass movie in between them. This makes me all the more impressed with my colleagues who can drink buckets of Funky Cold Medina and then compose lengthy well thought out emails!

As for the Lexington, there’s a lot to like! I’m looking for St. Joe and Samba Rooster to set a fast pace and more than likely knock each other out as I don’t see any indication that either of them can rate. I would have to see some endurance works rather than speed works given that both of them are stretching out, St. Joe more than Samba Rooster.

I really like Atoned and I’ll be happy if he does well but I’m not convinced here. I know he can get the distance but I’m not sure about the surface (even though his last work at Keenland was nice) and I’m not sure what he’s gonna do with a fast pace given that all but his first two races where on the slow side. Of course a faster pace could be just what he needs but I’m going to look elsewhere today.

Salute the Sarge looks interesting and I’m somewhat tempted but not all synthetic surfaces are equal so I’m not counting on his west coast synthetic record to automatically transfer here. I think he could handle the pace and the distance but I’m going to look elsewhere given his odds.

There are 3 that I like almost equally, Racecar Rhapsody, Riley Tucker and Tomcito. All will do well with a fast pace and all of their running styles will do well with a speed duel, should it materialize.

Racecar Rhapsody is cutting back in a 2nd off start… this should suite him. He likes Keenland and if Tomcito doesn’t like the surface I think RR is the closer here. I really liked his inside move in the Lane’s End and thought he looked game in the stretch, give him a faster pace on a proven track and he looks attractive.

Let me just say that I really want Tomcito to win because I really want him in the Derby. I’m not saying he’s my pick to win the Derby but I think he’ll make it more interesting. After seeing his first U.S. performance we can now tell that he will probably do well with fast fractions, but in addition to the concern about the surface, I’m also wondering if this is actually enough distance for him? Also of note, his handled gate work at Keenland is kind of insane!

And last but not least there’s Riley Tucker. His last out at the distance at Keenland was nice and I’m guessing he’ll do a bit better off a faster pace but he’ll have to work get a good position breaking from the 10th. It’s hard to tell anything from Mott’s training style sometimes and this is one of those times… consistent 4F at 48 for the last 4 works.

I just got off the phone with Swifty… he also likes Behindathebar. My concern about him was the same with Salute the Sarge, not to assume all the synthetics are equal. I think he can do well given the pace so I’ll probably include him too if for no other reason than to avoid what happens every time Swifty and like different horses.

Good luck everyone!

Posted by dana on Apr 19 2008    
Filed Under: Picks, 2008, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Racing

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