In a word, wow. Not that he had the toughest of competition today but I think someone may have slipped a little Winstrol laced Kool-Aid in my “what am I going to do with an hour to post” beer.

And did anyone call Macho Again? I took a quick look around and didn’t see anyone call that one! It looked really good for Racecar Rhapsody but he couldn’t hold off the hard charging Icabad Crane and Macho Again. Too bad too, my strategy involved a series of tri boxes of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody and the field. I also had a much more limited series of exactas, that did not include Macho Again.

Back to Big Brown, I was impressed with how well he rated and how effortlessly he took over to ultimately crush the field. That’s one more thing to check of my “prove it to me” list… can he intentionally rate? Check.

The Belmont should provide an opportunity for him to prove the one last thing that I’d like to see (and just in time too!)… how will he handle some real competition? His only competition so far has been his post position in the Derby. Casino Drive should be the first real competition of the equine variety to cross his path. Bring it on!

In other news, besides missing the Preakness trifecta by 3/4, I missed the Dupont Distaff exacta by nose thus concluding a full day cashing no tickets.

Here’s a note of interest in the Bloodhorse article about Big Brown’s retirement plan:

When the colt will be retired is completely controlled by his owners, IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa Jr.

Do you think there’s a clause in the deal that nullifies it if he’s injured? Do you think the money has changed hands or does it change hands when he’s retired? In other words, who assumes the risk? Maybe they both do if there was some payment now with the balance payable upon retirement. If Three Chimneys assumes the risk it will be interesting to see just how sporting IEAH will be about it… clearly they could certainly count on continued purse money!

Well, congrats to Big Brown and Macho Again and West Point Thoroughbreds… now there’s a partnership group I actually like!

Posted by dana on May 17 2008    
Filed Under: West Point Thoroughbreds, 3yo, Drugs, Greed, Prove it to Me, Wrap Up, Pimlico, Preakness, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Breeding, Gambling, Retirement Watch, Triple Crown, Racing

(No Ratings Yet)

 Loading ...

Share This

5 Comments »

The Twinspires, looking maaaah-velous (eqqman)

This cracked me up.

If you were looking for a sign that Pyro has bounced out of his Toyota Blue Grass (gr. I) fiasco in top shape and is back to being the Pyro of old, you certainly didn’t get it Monday morning when the colt worked six furlongs in fog so thick it wasn’t able to be timed by the Keeneland clockers.

This is a crazy year, no? The foggy Gotham, War Pass out, possibly a couple of talented fillies in, a bunch of horses who haven’t raced on dirt yet, a bunch of confirmed dirt horses doing their final prep on poly, a South American invader and a hype machine so strong I’m wondering if it’s the real reason the Times started it’s racing blog.

I’m much more interested to see Pyro’s work at Churchill anyway. I was surprised to see Curlin get back to work so soon. Since he’s shipping to Churchill presumably with Pyro, I wonder if Pyro’s last Derby work with be with the master? I hope that doesn’t tinker with his odd too much!

Meanwhile, one has to look no further to understand why Steve Davidowitz is my handicapping idol. In his more recent DRF column, he shares some Derby lessons, both generally and his own.

The thing I like about Davidowitz is that he’s holistic. He reminds us to not only take into account each horse but to look at how each piece of the puzzle could potentially come together (or not). Seeing people tout Big Brown as being “head and shoulders” above the rest based speed figures and a flashy performance cracks me up.

I have all the same questions about Big Brown that I had about Curlin last year. Foot issues not withstanding, let’s say he can hold the distance, will he hold up in stretch battle? Can he look a horse in the eye and dig in?

I suspect there are a lot of people out there who think he won’t get a chance to answer those questions, but I’m not one of them. When he checks off all the items on my “prove it me” list, then I’ll be singing his praises, just like I now do for Curlin.

Davidowitz goes on:

I also have come to realize that it is a bad mistake to settle on a firm pick before the final field is known, before post positions are drawn, and before the overall pace of the race can be mapped out. At the same time, trying to stretch your view of the race to accent marginal longshots for a win play, usually is a prescription for a stack of losing tickets.

Sorry Ernie, I’m not gonna do a top 5… but I will update my Derby Dating selections at least one more time before the big dance! Until then, check out some Kentucky Derby Odds!

Posted by dana on Apr 22 2008    
Filed Under: Pyro, 2008, Prove it to Me, Hype, Steve Davidowitz, 3yo, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby, Racing

(No Ratings Yet)

 Loading ...

Share This

No Comments »

As I was reading the various takes on yesterdays preps it dawned on me that this is not the only Sunday where we’re left to ponder “what happened to (fill in the blank)?” and inevitably “what does it mean?”.

Let’s take a look back, shall we?

Blue Grass: Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, Big Truck
Santa Anita Derby: El Gato Malo
Illinois Derby: Denis of Cork
Florida Derby: Fierce Wind, Elysium Fields
Rebel: Z Fortune
Tampa Bay Derby: War Pass
Louisiana Derby: Tale of Ekati
Gotham: Giant Moon
Fountain of Youth: Monba

What does this mean, other than this year’s 3yos seem to be a lot less consistent than last year’s? I’m going to throw out the Blue Grass for the no-showers because of the surface. It would be one thing if only one of them stunk, but they all got a big fat F.

Does this mean that the horses that haven’t thrown a clunker yet are more likely to on Derby day? Does it mean that those who have thrown a clunker have theirs out of the way? It would be great if it were that simple (and maybe in some cases it is). Monba, Tale of Ekati, War Pass and Z Fortune have all had nice comebacks off of their clunkers, could the same be true for the recent no shows?

Take War Pass, I thought his Wood performance was great… the old War Pass showed up, set insane fractions and gutted it out for a strong place. I don’t think there’s any shame in that performance. If he were my horse I’d wait for the Preakness and then save him for the summer as it’s clear he won’t rate and there’s a ton of confirmed speed going to Kentucky.

How about Big Brown? My biggest prove it to me point, other than his feet (which I think is a big point to prove), is that his real competition didn’t show up in the Florida Derby. Sure he’s got a ton of talent and I’m excited to see what he’ll do with it (if his connections don’t f-up his feet because of their Derby fever) but I can’t back at a horse at those odds with so little proven. It actually cracks me up how people go so bananas for a visually impressive performance and a 3 digit Beyer (on a speed favoring track). I’m still of the opinion that Pyro’s Risen Star was the the performance of the season.

And yes, speaking of Pyro, if he comes out the Blue Grass sound he’s still my fav… and even better for me that his odds will no doubt be much higher. As for the rest of them… I’m still mulling it all over and waiting to see how they train. I’ll definitely be updating my Derby Dating thoughts in the coming week as a girl has to keep an eye on all of her options!

Posted by dana on Apr 13 2008    
Filed Under: Pyro, 2008, Prove it to Me, War Pass, 3yo, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Racing

(No Ratings Yet)

 Loading ...

Share This

1 Comment »

Curlin, “proving it to me” again, in the Jockey Gold Cup (Sarah K. Andrew)

Swifty’s comment on my bandwagon post brought up another, somewhat related topic.

Oh how quickly they forget… I can’t believe that I so conveniently blanked out all of the Derby hype around Curlin last year, albeit, not quite this early.

It was everywhere, and my natural aversion to hype was fully intact as well…

04/16/2007:

The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?

05/06/2007:

So, as I suspected, Curlin wasn’t quite ready to take on the big boys, but clearly he’s a very good horse.

It dawned on me last night that Curlin was such a media darling because Americans are completely invested in the idea of the easy payoff.

But then the tide started to change…

05/19/2007 - 1:

I also think the Derby was probably good for Curlin. I’m looking for him to sit closer to the pace and have a better shot this time.

05/19/2007 - 2:

Curlin may have won by a nose but he kicked Street Sense’s ass in my opinion. He came 3 wide to Street Sense’s inside trip and the really poured it on at the end. Fucking Fantastic! He galloped out nicely too. The one thing I did get right was that the Derby was good for him! He really has the killer instinct.

And then, he had proved it to me…

05/21/2007:

I was re-reading a few of my posts because I was thinking about things I wanted to see about a few of the horses before I became a believer.

From my Derby Futures Wagers post:

“The things that I don’t like about Curlin are that he hasn’t raced against tough competition and we have no idea if he’s got the heart for a fight. Could he hold his own against Street Sense in the stretch?”

Answered: Yes!

Not only is the this story of how one woman overcame her abhorrence of hype, it illustrates something I’m sure every horseplayer does to some extent. We all have our “yeah, but how will they handle X” or “but they had the perfect trip”.

As a matter of fact, to me Street Sense never lived up to “the hype” because he never “proved it to me” about having to go around horses. How would he have faired in this year’s Risen Star as a closer?

We all do it, and we all have our own criteria. For example in the aforementioned TBA Facebook discussion of Pyro, Teresa at Brooklyn Backstretch still has Pyro on her “Prove it to me” list because the pace was so slow (could he do it if he had had to run faster?) but to me it was more impressive because the pace was slow. To each their own “Prove it to me”… and that’s what makes discussing the races so damn fun!

Posted by dana on Feb 12 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Prove it to Me, Pyro, Sarah K. Andrew, Street Sense, Curlin, Racing

(No Ratings Yet)

 Loading ...

Share This

3 Comments »