If you’re one of the many people scouring the internet for last minute ideas on Kentucky Derby wagering strategy or you’re looking for 2010 Kentucky Derby picks, or perhaps you’re looking to learn more about the 2010 Kentucky Derby Contenders or just learn about horse racing… this is not the post for you. Good thing there are plenty of other places for you to find for that sort of thing!

After yesterday’s bloodbath I’ve rebounded a little today picking Sheryl’s Melody. I also liked winner Zimmer but played him with the incorrectly named Win It. So far, with the exception of Zimmer (with Bo-rail aboard), winners have been a little wide on the track but when asked about no one is saying it’s because the rail is dead. Needless to say I’ll be keeping an eye on it. Also interesting is that it’s been all front runners and stalkers so far… closers haven’t been able to get there yet.

With no dime supers I feel a little bit like my super power (har har) has been stripped away. I was on a super streak at Gulfstream a few weeks that put me considerably up for the year. Not something I get to say often! If things keep heading in the same direction that won’t be the case by the end of the day… such is life!

And feast your eyes on the genius of Blind Luck and Evening Jewel… what a race:

Best of luck to everyone today, and let’s hope everyone stays safe. Don’t forget to check those Kentucky Derby Odds!

Posted by dana on May 01 2010    
Filed Under: Kentucky Oaks, Superfecta, 2010, YouTube, 3yo, Race Replay, Kentucky Derby, Racing

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Will he be the one? (defekto)

In recent years I waxed tweentastic over the impending Derby hopefuls. This year, whether it’s due to a inevitable let down from the likes of Rachel Alexandra’s 3-year-old campaign or the fact that I’ve been the equivalent of an exchange student spending all my time on Hello Race Fans, I’m having a little trouble focusing on finding a date.

With the advent of the Derby Prep Alert where I covered Santa Anita, I’m leaning more towards the surfer dudes this year… let’s see if they can hang ten.

Um, no one?
Ok, if you totally twisted my arm I might, MIGHT say Caracortado. Cool name, right? And hey, who doesn’t like a cute a guy from the wrong side the tracks who can totally hang with in-crowd? And who cares if he lost the San Felipe, he went way wide and totally ran well. Likewise for the Santa Anita Derby, Lookin at Lucky isn’t the only one that stupid Skipshot messed with. I know, I know, he’s probably doesn’t have enough earnings to get in the gate, but if he did…

Super Saver:
The more I think about it, the more this guy could creep into my heart as my date for the big dance. He had dreamy 2-year-old form and already rocked at Churchill. If he trains well he might be my date. Did I mention that he’s reunited with one Mr. Calvin Borel, aka the king of Churchill Downs? While some think he hung in the Arkansas Derby (ok, he hung), it’s not Line of David is going to be the only speed horse this year… duh, someone’s gotta pick up the pieces!

Sidney’s Candy:
See, I’m totally all about the Cali boys this year… weird! Besides being named after candy, he can really turn it on and smoke ‘em in the stretch. Does his totally rad running style hinder him what with all the other speedy types? Maybe.

Rule:
He was my pick for awhile, and don’t tell my friends, but he STILL might be my pick. I wish he could rate, but no one’s perfect, right? Fingers crossed that he just needed to get a clunker out of the way… he’s been doing so well! I’d rather see him bomb during practice than on game night (or afternoon in this case)

Lookin at Lucky:

At first I was like:

“Yeah, you’re kinda cool and weren’t you something last year? While everyone is busy telling you how great you look I’ll be home washing my hair, but thanks!”

But now I’m like:

“You know, now that you’ve messed up a little, learned a few things, I think you could turn out ok. You know what it’s like to think everything’s all “clear sailing” and then have something go wrong. I think that experience could serve you well… but don’t get too cocky dude, you might mess up again!

Setsuko:
You’ve got the right moves to show up in style and surprise everyone on the big day… everyone but me! Too bad you probably won’t make it in the gate, maybe I’ll see you in the Preakness?

Endorsement:
I know, you’re probably gonna be an underlay because you’re from the same hometown as last year’s winner but I still think you’re pretty interesting. And it would be totally rad if your trainer were the first woman trainer to win the Derby!

Hi, it’s me, Constance… and I’d like to take my girlfriend to the prom. And not some fake ass prom either! We all know Hollendorfer likes to win and I’ve heard that your connections are kind of conservative so you’re likely going to the Oaks (which is hot all by itself!), but damn you would be hot in the Derby! Damn!

Eskendereya:
See my original thought about Lookin at Lucky minus last year. And compared to everyone else he looks like he’s about 25, gross! Yeah, he’s won easy, but what’s he gonna do when he gets in traffic or has a challenge? Maybe he’ll win easily, but I’ll just have to wait and see.

Jackson Bend:
Sure, you’re cute, but so are a lot of other guys.

Ice Box:
Just because you show up once and do a good job doesn’t mean I want to go to the dance with you. Pffft.

Mission Impaziable:
I like your jock! Ew, gross… that wasn’t what I meant, duh! As I was saying, of all the guys milling around trying to look cool, I think you’ve got the most goin’ on. But being king of the dorks isn’t really all that great now is it?

Stately Victor:
Ok, “Stately Victory”, let’s you do that again.

Conveyance:
Pssst. Yeah, you. I actually think you’re kinda hot. But I think you like to dance to fast and will want to go home before it’s over. Too bad…

American Lion:
I totally used to make fun of you, but I think after all that brou-ha-ha about you being some big deal, you actually did step up to the plate and show us what you’re made of it. I think your running style might work out well but am not convinced about that bunch you beat. But way to go on finally coming into your own!

Dublin:
Blah, blah, blah, excuses. Blah, blah, excuses. Whatever. (Although your trainer is pretty sneaky… maybe I should keep my eye on you, hmmmm).

Discreetly Mine:
I’m sorry, have we met? Oh right, Louisiana. I’m sure I’ll see you over the summer or maybe in the fall in some spots where your running style can help me cash some tickets but until then best of luck!

Dean’s Kitten:
Meow! I could say your name all day… but is that enough?

Awesome Act:
Dude, your act was totally not awesome when that froggy jock strangled the bejesus out of you in Wood Memorial. If I were you I’d be pissed!

Homeboykris:
Didn’t you move or something? You’ve been around less than me… and I’ve been an exchange student!

I may also try to do my old standard, fun with Derby names too, but I think it might be a lot harder to come up with an *&^% &*& pick six this year! Until then, there’s always Kentucky Derby Betting (dollar, dollar bill y’all!) and don’t forget to check out the 2010 Kentucky Derby contenders on Horse Racing Nation!

Posted by dana on Apr 19 2010    
Filed Under: Hello Race Fans, 2010, Derby/Oaks Dating, Kentucky Oaks, Derby Trail, Kentucky Derby, Racing

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Insert obligatory sentiment about being bummed yet relieved that Zenyatta was scratched. Follow-up with note about looking forward to seeing her debut.

Now that that’s out of the way… I didn’t handicap the Aegan Turf Sprint so let’s start with Zenyatta-less Louisville Handicap.

One Caroline will probably win, but it’s worth noting that her smallest winning margin aside from her maiden win was with Swift Temper right behind her pressing the pace. So far the track has been speed favoring so it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Swift Temper steal it but I’m gonna take a shot with Miss Isella. Unlike Swift Temper who has run 5 times at Churchill and only showed once, Miss Isella has won 3 and placed once for the same amount of races. She’s also won 2nd off and with the switch from synthetics to dirt. I think she’ll sit off the pace on the outside (the money spot so far) and with any luck she can get it done. Unbridled Belle is always a wild card for me, I like her a little bit here as she does well off a break but she doesn’t seem to like the slop. No doubt she’ll be short a price as well. I might even box Miss Isella and Swift Temper depending on how the look in the parade. I will definitely use One Caroline in Pick 3s but am looking elsewhere in the race.

Update: Miss Isella scores and pays $19.40, the day is off to a great start!

In the Edgewood Laragh looks to be very short price. I’ll single her in Pick a 3 & Pick 4 but am looking at Magical Affair and Abbott Hall for value.

Update: Laragh won impressively with a quick closing Magical Affair getting up for second, I’ve still got one Pick 4 ticket alive but am out of the Pick 3.

Dr. Pleasure looks like he could wire the field in the Alysheba. Macho Again and Mambo in Seattle will probably take most of the money and perhaps Macho Again can make it 2 back to back on a sloppy track, but I’ll be looking to the better priced Bullsbay, and long shot Shift in Power, who both love Churchill and the distance. I don’t think Cool Coal Man will press the pace too much so both Bullsbay and Shift in Power might get the moderate that suits them. Off course, Macho Again might ruin my long shot fun, but so be it!

Update: Bullsbay gets by an impressive looking Cool Coal Man, I didn’t play the race right but have 2 live Pick 3 tickets.

I’m not going too wild with long shots in the American Turf as I think Stormalory and Julien Leparoux will get the job done. I also like Battle of Hastings but I do think Bruce N Autumn is interesting as he’ll be back on the turf at Churchill, the site of his only win which was exactly at the distance. I might throw him into a tri with the other 2 for fun but am unlikely to use him in a Pick 4.

Update: Sadly, Stormalory broke down after taking a bad step during the break and had to by euthanized. Condolences to his connections, Orthodox pulled a major upset over Battle of Hastings. If there’s any upside to be had in these situations, it was nice to see Jon Court of Animal Planet’s Jockeys show get some vindication and nice pay day on Orthodox.

And for the Oaks, it’s hard to see Rachel Alexandra losing, but if she does I definitely don’t want to miss out on the fun! It’s not like she’s undefeated and anyone can have an off day. Obviously I’ll single her in a Pick 4 but I think Justwhistledixie, Gabby’s Golden Gal and Flying Spur all look very interesting. I’ll have one crazy Pick 4 ticket including those 3 and wait to see how the look in the parade before I decide how to play it.

Update: Feast your eyes on the incredible greatness of Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Triple Crown winner… oh, wait. Dammit!

Good luck, and let’s get everyone home safe!

Posted by dana on May 01 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Impressive, Jon Court, Rachel Alexandra, Pick 3, Zenyatta, Picks, 3yo, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Pick 4, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Oaks, Racing

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Rachel Alexandra, thoughtfully not screwing it up for the stallions (Sarah K. Andrew)

Just a few short days ago there was an excellent discussion going on here at GbG regarding the Oaks, the Derby and ultimately the biases that exist here in the good ole U S of A that generally preclude talented fillies from running in open company.

I believe all in attendance were somewhat in agreement that yes, Americans do have their biases about running fillies with colts, but just in case anyone is still in denial that fillies don’t get the chance because of the beliefs of their connections vs. their ability, I offer Exhibit A.

Dolphus Morrison, Rachel Alexandra’s breeder and co-owner, had this to say about running her in the Derby:

I think the Derby is a colts’ race and it’s there to showcase the horses that are the top potential stallions. It’s kind of stupid for some jerk with a filly to screw that up.

I guess this answers the question posed in the aforementioned discussion “Which guy stopped her from entering the Derby?” One Mr. Dolphus Morrison, who politely doesn’t want to “screw it up” for the potential stallions. How thoughtful!

Do you think you’d ever, EVER hear that kind of attitude in Europe if an owner had a filly as talented at Rachel Alexandra? No, you’d see them at the l’Arc collecting their whopping check and smiling for the cameras. Can we please stop pretending that it’s a matter of talent that keeps top notch fillies in restricted company and acknowledge that these types of attitudes exist?

Stay tuned for Oaks card picks either tonight or tomorrow morning and Stallion Kentucky Derby picks probably Saturday morning. But since I have a decent amount of handicapping to do, no doubt I’ll be doing some procrastination posting!

Posted by dana on Apr 30 2009    
Filed Under: Sarah K. Andrew, Kentucky Oaks, 2009, Rachel Alexandra, 3yo, Kentucky Derby, Breeding, Let Horses Race, Grrrr, Derby Trail, Racing

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As Jessica points out, the Oaks is always overshadowed by the Derby and this year is no exception. I make a bit of a joke about in my Oaks Dating post (the opening paragraph) but the disparity between the Derby and Oaks coverage is SO great, it’s as if the Oaks just any other graded race for 3yo fillies. Is it?

I had the pleasure of having just this discussion, via the Horseplayers Teen Party Chat Line (twitter), with Ed DeRosa (who now blogs!). I sort of stupidly took his bait about why there was no outrage re: filly races on Friday compared to the Breeders’ Cup and the party began there. The point I was trying to make is that it’s frustrating to see such a huge disparity between how the races are covered. He freely admits that, in his opinion, not only is the Oaks just another G1 race but that it gets a “tremendous amount of publicity for what it is“.

In trying to make my point, a quick twirl around the mainstream media racing sites at approximately 11am-ish this morning showed the following:

BH.com, all derby above the fold, TT.com, no Oaks above the fold, DRF (from phone), no Oaks headlines.

As of now (roughly 8pm-ish Monday night of Derby week), Bloodhorse is (and will continue to be) all Derby above the fold as their prime section is Triple Crown Mania), Thoroughbred Times is all Derby above the fold (no special Derby layout) and DRF has a new Derby homepage that actually has no news above the fold but 1 of 12 news items are on the Oaks and 10 of 12 are on the Derby (the other was on the tragic accident at Churchill). So, out of the top 3 media outlets, nothing on the Oaks above the fold.

There are currently 50 headlines about racing news, 35 of them are on the Derby while 4 of them are on the Oaks. That’s 70% of all racing coverage devoted to the Derby with 8% of all racing coverage being devoted to the Oaks.

Put aside for the moment the very valid point made by Val that this year’s Oaks is not all that interesting given how much Rachel Alexandra is overshadowing her entry mates. Did that situation slow down the Derby coverage last year when Big Brown was perceived to be a few cuts above the rest? Was last year’s deeper Oaks field covered at a reasonably higher percentage than this year’s? Without having taken the same sample at this time last year I can’t say for sure, but what are the odds that the coverage was noticeably different… 15-1, 30-1, 50-1?.

Publicity and news coverage are (sometimes) different. Just because the Oaks isn’t being well covered (har har) from a racing perspective doesn’t mean it’s not being promoted, as DeRosa points out. Not too long ago when I first started following racing I thought the Oaks was the filly equivalent of the Derby. Churchill, for the most part, promotes it as such. The Derby and Oaks both have a site with similar structure and content. The Oaks is also well attended but as one GbG commenter points out, the stellar attendance and handle might be more of a function of how Churchill structures it’s tickets and perhaps that the locals love their Oaks.

A quick visit to the Oaks Wikipedia page uncovers this:

The Oaks and the Derby are the oldest continuously contested sporting events in history and the only horse races to be held at its original site since its conception.

[…]

The Kentucky Oaks is considered by some to be the second most popular horse race in the American horse racing society due to its attendance. It attracts about 100,000 people in attendance a year since 2001’s 127th running of the Kentucky Oaks.[3] In 1980 it was about 50,000 people and by 1989 it had reached about 67,000 people.[1] The attendance at the Kentucky Oaks usually surpassed the attendance at the Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes, as well as the Breeders’ Cup.

It’s worth noting that the cites are from books on the history of Louisville. I think it might be fair to say that the Oaks is the second most popular horse race in Louisville, but by using the yardstick of news coverage it doesn’t seem to ring true elsewhere.

So, Churchill promotes the Oaks as if it’s the filly equivalent of the Derby but the media either doesn’t treat it as such because it does agree OR thinks the filly equivalent of the Derby only merits 8% of coverage vs. 70% for the Derby. Either way, I stand by my original point… annoying!

Posted by dana on Apr 27 2009    
Filed Under: Big Brown, 2009, Twitter, Rachel Alexandra, Industry, Kentucky Oaks, Triple Crown, Kentucky Derby, Marketing, Media, Racing

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