Insert obligatory sentiment about being bummed yet relieved that Zenyatta was scratched. Follow-up with note about looking forward to seeing her debut.

Now that that’s out of the way… I didn’t handicap the Aegan Turf Sprint so let’s start with Zenyatta-less Louisville Handicap.

One Caroline will probably win, but it’s worth noting that her smallest winning margin aside from her maiden win was with Swift Temper right behind her pressing the pace. So far the track has been speed favoring so it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Swift Temper steal it but I’m gonna take a shot with Miss Isella. Unlike Swift Temper who has run 5 times at Churchill and only showed once, Miss Isella has won 3 and placed once for the same amount of races. She’s also won 2nd off and with the switch from synthetics to dirt. I think she’ll sit off the pace on the outside (the money spot so far) and with any luck she can get it done. Unbridled Belle is always a wild card for me, I like her a little bit here as she does well off a break but she doesn’t seem to like the slop. No doubt she’ll be short a price as well. I might even box Miss Isella and Swift Temper depending on how the look in the parade. I will definitely use One Caroline in Pick 3s but am looking elsewhere in the race.

Update: Miss Isella scores and pays $19.40, the day is off to a great start!

In the Edgewood Laragh looks to be very short price. I’ll single her in Pick a 3 & Pick 4 but am looking at Magical Affair and Abbott Hall for value.

Update: Laragh won impressively with a quick closing Magical Affair getting up for second, I’ve still got one Pick 4 ticket alive but am out of the Pick 3.

Dr. Pleasure looks like he could wire the field in the Alysheba. Macho Again and Mambo in Seattle will probably take most of the money and perhaps Macho Again can make it 2 back to back on a sloppy track, but I’ll be looking to the better priced Bullsbay, and long shot Shift in Power, who both love Churchill and the distance. I don’t think Cool Coal Man will press the pace too much so both Bullsbay and Shift in Power might get the moderate that suits them. Off course, Macho Again might ruin my long shot fun, but so be it!

Update: Bullsbay gets by an impressive looking Cool Coal Man, I didn’t play the race right but have 2 live Pick 3 tickets.

I’m not going too wild with long shots in the American Turf as I think Stormalory and Julien Leparoux will get the job done. I also like Battle of Hastings but I do think Bruce N Autumn is interesting as he’ll be back on the turf at Churchill, the site of his only win which was exactly at the distance. I might throw him into a tri with the other 2 for fun but am unlikely to use him in a Pick 4.

Update: Sadly, Stormalory broke down after taking a bad step during the break and had to by euthanized. Condolences to his connections, Orthodox pulled a major upset over Battle of Hastings. If there’s any upside to be had in these situations, it was nice to see Jon Court of Animal Planet’s Jockeys show get some vindication and nice pay day on Orthodox.

And for the Oaks, it’s hard to see Rachel Alexandra losing, but if she does I definitely don’t want to miss out on the fun! It’s not like she’s undefeated and anyone can have an off day. Obviously I’ll single her in a Pick 4 but I think Justwhistledixie, Gabby’s Golden Gal and Flying Spur all look very interesting. I’ll have one crazy Pick 4 ticket including those 3 and wait to see how the look in the parade before I decide how to play it.

Update: Feast your eyes on the incredible greatness of Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Triple Crown winner… oh, wait. Dammit!

Good luck, and let’s get everyone home safe!

Posted by dana on May 01 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Impressive, Jon Court, Rachel Alexandra, Pick 3, Zenyatta, Picks, 3yo, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Pick 4, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Oaks, Racing

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Rachel Alexandra, thoughtfully not screwing it up for the stallions (Sarah K. Andrew)

Just a few short days ago there was an excellent discussion going on here at GbG regarding the Oaks, the Derby and ultimately the biases that exist here in the good ole U S of A that generally preclude talented fillies from running in open company.

I believe all in attendance were somewhat in agreement that yes, Americans do have their biases about running fillies with colts, but just in case anyone is still in denial that fillies don’t get the chance because of the beliefs of their connections vs. their ability, I offer Exhibit A.

Dolphus Morrison, Rachel Alexandra’s breeder and co-owner, had this to say about running her in the Derby:

I think the Derby is a colts’ race and it’s there to showcase the horses that are the top potential stallions. It’s kind of stupid for some jerk with a filly to screw that up.

I guess this answers the question posed in the aforementioned discussion “Which guy stopped her from entering the Derby?” One Mr. Dolphus Morrison, who politely doesn’t want to “screw it up” for the potential stallions. How thoughtful!

Do you think you’d ever, EVER hear that kind of attitude in Europe if an owner had a filly as talented at Rachel Alexandra? No, you’d see them at the l’Arc collecting their whopping check and smiling for the cameras. Can we please stop pretending that it’s a matter of talent that keeps top notch fillies in restricted company and acknowledge that these types of attitudes exist?

Stay tuned for Oaks card picks either tonight or tomorrow morning and Stallion Kentucky Derby picks probably Saturday morning. But since I have a decent amount of handicapping to do, no doubt I’ll be doing some procrastination posting!

Posted by dana on Apr 30 2009    
Filed Under: Sarah K. Andrew, Kentucky Oaks, 2009, Rachel Alexandra, 3yo, Kentucky Derby, Breeding, Let Horses Race, Grrrr, Derby Trail, Racing

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As Jessica points out, the Oaks is always overshadowed by the Derby and this year is no exception. I make a bit of a joke about in my Oaks Dating post (the opening paragraph) but the disparity between the Derby and Oaks coverage is SO great, it’s as if the Oaks just any other graded race for 3yo fillies. Is it?

I had the pleasure of having just this discussion, via the Horseplayers Teen Party Chat Line (twitter), with Ed DeRosa (who now blogs!). I sort of stupidly took his bait about why there was no outrage re: filly races on Friday compared to the Breeders’ Cup and the party began there. The point I was trying to make is that it’s frustrating to see such a huge disparity between how the races are covered. He freely admits that, in his opinion, not only is the Oaks just another G1 race but that it gets a “tremendous amount of publicity for what it is“.

In trying to make my point, a quick twirl around the mainstream media racing sites at approximately 11am-ish this morning showed the following:

BH.com, all derby above the fold, TT.com, no Oaks above the fold, DRF (from phone), no Oaks headlines.

As of now (roughly 8pm-ish Monday night of Derby week), Bloodhorse is (and will continue to be) all Derby above the fold as their prime section is Triple Crown Mania), Thoroughbred Times is all Derby above the fold (no special Derby layout) and DRF has a new Derby homepage that actually has no news above the fold but 1 of 12 news items are on the Oaks and 10 of 12 are on the Derby (the other was on the tragic accident at Churchill). So, out of the top 3 media outlets, nothing on the Oaks above the fold.

There are currently 50 headlines about racing news, 35 of them are on the Derby while 4 of them are on the Oaks. That’s 70% of all racing coverage devoted to the Derby with 8% of all racing coverage being devoted to the Oaks.

Put aside for the moment the very valid point made by Val that this year’s Oaks is not all that interesting given how much Rachel Alexandra is overshadowing her entry mates. Did that situation slow down the Derby coverage last year when Big Brown was perceived to be a few cuts above the rest? Was last year’s deeper Oaks field covered at a reasonably higher percentage than this year’s? Without having taken the same sample at this time last year I can’t say for sure, but what are the odds that the coverage was noticeably different… 15-1, 30-1, 50-1?.

Publicity and news coverage are (sometimes) different. Just because the Oaks isn’t being well covered (har har) from a racing perspective doesn’t mean it’s not being promoted, as DeRosa points out. Not too long ago when I first started following racing I thought the Oaks was the filly equivalent of the Derby. Churchill, for the most part, promotes it as such. The Derby and Oaks both have a site with similar structure and content. The Oaks is also well attended but as one GbG commenter points out, the stellar attendance and handle might be more of a function of how Churchill structures it’s tickets and perhaps that the locals love their Oaks.

A quick visit to the Oaks Wikipedia page uncovers this:

The Oaks and the Derby are the oldest continuously contested sporting events in history and the only horse races to be held at its original site since its conception.

[…]

The Kentucky Oaks is considered by some to be the second most popular horse race in the American horse racing society due to its attendance. It attracts about 100,000 people in attendance a year since 2001’s 127th running of the Kentucky Oaks.[3] In 1980 it was about 50,000 people and by 1989 it had reached about 67,000 people.[1] The attendance at the Kentucky Oaks usually surpassed the attendance at the Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes, as well as the Breeders’ Cup.

It’s worth noting that the cites are from books on the history of Louisville. I think it might be fair to say that the Oaks is the second most popular horse race in Louisville, but by using the yardstick of news coverage it doesn’t seem to ring true elsewhere.

So, Churchill promotes the Oaks as if it’s the filly equivalent of the Derby but the media either doesn’t treat it as such because it does agree OR thinks the filly equivalent of the Derby only merits 8% of coverage vs. 70% for the Derby. Either way, I stand by my original point… annoying!

Posted by dana on Apr 27 2009    
Filed Under: Big Brown, 2009, Twitter, Rachel Alexandra, Industry, Kentucky Oaks, Triple Crown, Kentucky Derby, Marketing, Media, Racing

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The boys aren’t the only thing worth paying attention to in May (Team Queen)

Dear 3yo Fillies,

I know it’s tough to get any attention this time year. Your big dance, The Oaks, isn’t anchored to any cohesive racing series and there’s no well promoted grueling prep season… what’s a girl to do? Suck it, pretty much. And seriously, just how much can one obsess over ONE race with a bunch of boys? Jeez.

I’m sure I’m not alone when I say that you’re all beautiful, fierce, tough and awesome… and I’m looking forward to your big day. While it may seem like I’m busy checking out the guys in the hallway, it’s because that’s what’s “normal” and “expected”. I’m ashamed to admit it, but I even started a spreadsheet!

Seriously though, I really love you with all my heart no matter how much I talk about those stupid boys… don’t forget that, ok?

Rachel Alexandra:
You’ve got it all… class, style, speed and grace. The only thing that could make you more hot is if you had to battle it out for a win. Maybe then your silly jock will have to pay attention and give you a real ride!

Justwhistledixie:
Perhaps if any 3yo filly can give Miss Rachel Alexandra a reason to work, it’s this stunner. She went wide for the first half of the Bonnie Miss and spotted the front running speedster enough distance to make it seem like she might actually run away with it. But Dixie poured it on, coming wide (again) to put the field away, again. She’s won 5 in a row with 4 of them stakes. Call me crazy but I think I could really fall for this one.

Flying Spur:
Flying Spur’s mom has got it going on! With a mom like Lakeway one has to take notice of this young lady. In 1994 Lakeway won the Las Virgenes, SA Oaks, Hollywood Oaks and Mother Goose, placed in the Oaks and Alabama and STILL holds the record for the Las Virgenes and Mother Goose! (Rachel holds that record now) Of course times were different way back then. Back in the pasture I bet Mother Lakeway used to say “we had to race a LOT more than you’ll ever have to, AND we had to put on our own bridles… AND walk ourselves to cool down!”. “Whatever Mom, can’t you see I’m on the phone? Yeah, is this Rachel Alexdadra? I think I saw your jockey talking to Nan. Hello?”.

Gabby’s Golden Gal:
13 lengths? Nice! I mean I know it’s Sunland Park and all but 13 lengths is what you’d expect a top notch contender to win by under those circumstances. You’re trainer isn’t exactly a slouch either. I also hear you’ve looked impressive in the morning. Being prepared is totally hot!

Tweeter:
With a name like Tweeter I’m already crushing. Did she just move here? I think I’ve only seen her once, and she totally won. I like a mystery, especially a mystery with an awesome name!

Be Fair:
To be fair, I’d have to say that I don’t know enough about you to decide if I think you’re a stone fox or just a another pretty face.

Nan:
Sometimes parents want to make you in to something you’re just not, and that’s not your fault! I’m not sure if dirt is really your thing, but hey, I’ve been wrong before. I’ve just been around the block enough to know that I’d rather wait and see before saying yes to a girl like you.

Stardom Bound:
Can it really be considered a break up when your parents take you out of school to go on a fancy vacation? No one can ever replace you, my dreamy beloved, but I’m still here and the dance is still happening. I hope you won’t hold that against me when you get back!

ZOMG, I can’t believe it. ZENYATTA is going to be there!!! No offense girls but older = hotter (you’ll see soon enough). Keep your eyes on her if you wanna learn a thing to two, she’s the most wicked coolest EVER. Yay!

Posted by dana on Apr 26 2009    
Filed Under: Stardom Bound, Rachel Alexandra, Derby/Oaks Dating, Zenyatta, Kentucky Oaks, Derby Trail, 3yo, Racing

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Churchill in the morning (Katford)

Have I mentioned recently how much I love Steve Davidowitz? He was the first handicapper I ever read and his commentary, found at DRF+ or Trackmaster, never disappoints. In his monthly installment at Trackmaster he breaks down the facts about the contenders and generally points out that there’s still plenty to keep an eye on before any meaningful Derby rankings happen. I have to agree with this. While I continue to be super flattered to be included in the PDI, my “rankings” are really more like a watch list than anything else. If I can even pick just one horse this year, it won’t be until very close to May 2nd, if not ON May 2nd.

And speaking of reasons why one shouldn’t make any decisions just yet, DRF’s clocker-in-chief Mike Welsch is on the ground at Churchill and filing daily somewhat lo-fi “Blair Witch”-esque (lol… good one Kevin!) video reports on the morning works. While I’d like to see a variety of interpretations, I’ll take what I can get. Kennedy has a nice wish list of what he’d like to see out of the contenders that you might want to keep in mind as you check-in with the Blair Witch reports.

In a rare diversion away from the Derby for a moment, Welsch mentions Rachel Alexandra’s gallop as if a space ship landed and out walked the perfect embodiment of horse prepping for a big a race. Ok, maybe I’m a little bitter because my dreamy beloved is not the 3yo filly of the moment (I actually think giving her some time off is the right thing to do!) or perhaps it’s that a filly has to be a super freak to get any media play at this time of the year.

Hello, how are the other fillies prepping? There are other fillies in the race, aren’t there? I gave Churchill’s official tweeter a little razzing today (although I think it’s just a RSS feed) about this daily report that mentions all the fillies that galloped but only gives details on Rachel Alexandra, it’s a paltry trickle of information compared to what’s out there for the boys. How about a little detail about ALL of the fillies, not just the favorite? Grrrrr.

In other news GbG was recently honored by Case the Race as #9 of of the top 10 independent blogs for the Derby! This is somewhat shocking news because I’ve barely mentioned the Derby, although they did make that caveat… however, I don’t equate frequency with rigor, just frequency. If anyone did manage to make it all the way down to #9 in search of some Derby content, I can recommend the following:

Railbird, for kick ass historical data. LATG for continued and appropriate snarking at the Times (I totally agree), That’s Amore, who’s managed to finally catch a bit of the Derby fever and the already mentioned Kennedy who continually adds rigor to frequency when it comes to the Derby! All of this and more should help you make sense of what do with those Kentucky Derby odds… have fun!

Posted by dana on Apr 22 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Hype, Stardom Bound, Twitter, Rachel Alexandra, Kentucky Oaks, Churchill Downs, Derby Trail, Kentucky Derby, 3yo, Steve Davidowitz, Racing

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