Hats Off to you Swifty, well done! (Joelle Smith)

and to David Flores for an excellent trip! I was surprised that Behindathebar sat so far off the pace but he moved up nicely throughout the race and Flores was able to position himself perfectly. If Racecar Rhapsody would have gone with him he might have gotten up in time as he had a nice closing kick.

Riley Tucker also did well, but not well enough to make one of exactas.

And how about St. Joe Samba Rooster?

Estoy triste Tomcito que lo hicieron mal, me hubiera gustado haber visto a él en el Derby. (Gracias Google Translate!)

Posted by dana on Apr 19 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, 2008, Exacta, Derby Trail, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Racing

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Well, so much for the dearth of speed horses, it seems as though Big Brown has restored some balance!

I found the hardest part about handicapping the Florida Derby was trying to figure out if Big Brown would set the pace and if so, provide exactly the kind of fractions we saw today, i.e., fast.

In my notes there were a couple of horses who would benefit from a fast pace: Smooth Air, Cool Gator, BB Frank, Majestic Warrior and Tale of the Cat. Of those, I definitely thought Smooth Air and Majestic Warrior stood the most chance to make some noise. Tomcito was a total pace unknown to me so I didn’t know what to make of him.

I keyed almost all of my bets with Fierce Wind so it didn’t work out to well for me from a betting perspective, but I thought it was a thrilling yet quizzical race. In addition to being flabbergasted by Big Brown’s jaw dropping performance, I was equally flummoxed by Fierce Wind & Elysium Field’s no shows.

I was pleased with Smooth Air and thought as they came around the final turn he actually had a shot to catch Big Brown (which was extra exciting as I had a little win bet on him). Además, yo estaba muy satisfecho con el rendimiento de Tomcito (gracias Google Translate!).

I’m looking forward to watching the replay and reading all the speculation and hype that’s no doubt being produced right this very moment.

Posted by dana on Mar 29 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, Gulfstream Park, 3yo, Derby Trail, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Racing

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Was it just me, or was Saturday really weird? Hysterical Lady, Tiago and Daaher all throwing total clunkers, the continuing parade of California claimers stepping up their games, turf horses running on dirt and a horse who won his last on turf taking a dirt (well, synthetic) race. Add this from the NYC OTB site:

Wagering on Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields is unavailable today because the California Horsemen have withdrawn their consent to interstate simulcasting and wagering with the New York State Off-Track Betting Corporations.

We apologize for this interruption and are working to resolve the problem.

Swifty and I had both just lost on the Swale and were starting to think about the Robert B. Lewis, but we couldn’t find Santa Anita on our TV at “The Office”. The loud and annoying investment bankers sitting next to us started to grumble as well. Swifty asked one of the clerks at the window where the signal was and the answer was that the California jocks were on strike but the answer seemed vague enough to make to make it seem like there was no racing at Santa Anita.

I took a quick look around on my dedicated txting and horse racing news reading device and wasn’t able to find any information about what was going on. As a matter of fact, as of right now (4:20pm on Sunday), the paragraph quoted above is the ONLY thing I can find on the matter!

We eventually figured out that it was just that the signal was blocked as I could log-in in my Twinspires account on my phone and see that the races were indeed on. After the Donn we both busted out of there quickly so we could get to our respective apartments and play Santa Anita via Twinspires (i.e, continue my losing streak).

Fellow TBAers John and Valerie reported that their Twinspires accounts were useless for both the Donn and Robert B. Lewis due to heavy traffic but I didn’t have any trouble in the Strub and frankly was happy to have the account in this odd twist of signal war fate. However, you won’t hear an argument from me on the addressing some of the usability issues of Twinspires, but that’s another post entirely!

For the most part I feel good about Donn assessment as Daaher couldn’t stand up to pressure on the lead, but I also have to wonder with such a horrifying clunker if something isn’t wrong with him. Also, I have to wonder if Luzzi could have used some slightly better judgment given the distance. I thought my pick AP Arrow ran well and it looked like with a touch more distance he could have gotten there as he was closing hard.

But Spring at Last, way to go! On my first pass of the race I was planning on using him but eventually talked myself out of it thinking he had distance limitations, although he ran well in the Strub last year at the distance. Needless to say, I’m happy to see him step up and am hoping to see more good things from him and AP Arrow.

Speaking of the Strub, Tiago barely held on for place… Valerie, and I’m sure others, are starting to wonder to about him. My sentimental pick Slew’s Tizzy bombed horribly! I’m starting to wonder if he just can’t rate + perhaps it’s time to drop him in for a confidence builder (and/or permanently drop him in class). However, I think they should also try him on the turf again as he showed some signs of life there. I seriously expected him to do so much better on that surface. I don’t think it was a distance issue as it looked like it was over for him before he even go to the stretch. In watching the replay it also looks like he might have been a little rank in the stretch as well. It was nice to see Great Hunter improve on his 3 outting since last year’s Derby. Hopefully he’ll get back in the swing of things as well.

But Monterey Jazz, who I liked in the San Fernando before he scratched, is interesting in that there’s been a whole parade of former claimers stepping up in California and I believe they’ve all been early speed types as well. Zayat Stables has also had some speedy front runners making mild upsets on the early part of the Derby Trail with Z Fortune and Eaton’s Gift.

For the holidays I bought myself a bunch of DRF handicapping books that they smartly packaged as group. Given what’s been going on lately, I think I’ll start with Steve Klein’s The Power of Early Speed.

Posted by dana on Feb 03 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, Technology, TBA, 2008, Twinspires, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, OTB, Slew's Tizzy, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Tiago, Derby Trail, Great Hunter, Handicapping, Racing

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1979 Mattel Horse Racing Analyzer and gift from Swifty!

I had fantastic luck yesterday… with the subway. Every time I arrived on the platform the train was arriving. I even hopped across the platform to catch the arriving express train after one stop, making my normal 30+ minute door to door to the office 15 minutes. This luck was with me for each of my four subway rides, the subway equivalent of a Pick 6 given it a was a Saturday. This was where the luck ended.

I had the right selections in the Tiffany Lass but didn’t bet it right. I chose an exacta of Tizaqueena over Jolie The Cat & Highest Class and put a little bit on Highest Class to win. I had a nagging feeling that I should select Jolie The Cat to win but stuck with my choice. I was surprised to see her set the pace but someone had to do it. I thought it might be Syriana’s Song or Timely Reflection. She looked great on the lead and got the job done when asked after setting a nice slow pace. I still like Tizaqueena as well and will be keeping an eye on both her Jolie the Cat.

The LeComte was the subway luck equivalent of being stuck in a train that’s not moving in a car where the PA doesn’t work. I dismissed Z Fortune altogether, I’m not sure if it’s because his prior races were for state breds or that his last speed figure was 16 points lower the prior one but he looked really strong and is clearly one to keep an eye on. Lesson of the day: don’t mess with Asmussen at Fairgrounds! I’m also interested to see Smooth Air’s next out given that He’s Eze came in 4th here. I’m wondering if he could be a one surface wonder in the slop, like one of my sentimental favorites, Slew’s Tizzy. I really, really wish they’d send him to California or just run him on synthetic surfaces, isn’t it clear by now he doesn’t like the dirt?

Swifty was lamenting that the LeComte was where he fell in love last year. While I haven’t fallen in love yet (I have trust issues), I’m definitely looking forward to a second date with El Galo Mato! I didn’t bet this one correctly either, which is extra annoying due to my pre-office selections including the winning exacta. Nevertheless, that bad cat is the first 3yo colt that I think I could I really fall for… it was, however, love at first sight with Mushka, but I don’t want to digress too much.

In the San Pasqual Zappa looked really good to me in the parade and my note about him was that he could be ready to jump in class. I boxed him with Thousand Words and ran back to the window to get a win bet on him but just missed it. He looked really great as well sitting perfectly off the pace. I always love to see a claimer jump up in class.

And finally, in the subway luck equivalent of trudging to the station in the pouring rain to find your train not running at all, only to have walk several blocks to another line that doesn’t even put you within 4 four blocks of your final destination, we have Air Commander in the San Fernando! Jessica at Railbird points out the Dan Illman nailed Air Commander in the OTB channel’s live handicapping show… naturally one of the only times I didn’t watch it. Well done though! My long shot across the board was Big Bad Leroy Brown, who came in last! But what’s interesting to me is that of the remaining crop of last year’s 3yos, the ones that are improving are surprising. Take Pink Viper’s 107 Beyer in the Brush Up at Aqueduct. While not the same class of horses as the San Fernando, the speed figure is still quite an improvement.

Both Pink Viper and Air Commander were on the Derby Trail last year. Who else is out there improving greatly I wonder, and are horses like Ravel and Great Hunter going to improve? Time will tell. Dominican was back on the work tab this morning breezing 3F in :38:80 and Sedgefield is entered in the 7th at Gulfstream today, a 62K allowance optional claimer at 1 mile on the turf (not entered for a tag). Dawn after Dawn is running in the El Encino today at Santa Anita… I can’t wait to see her return, she’s been training nicely and I’ve got my fingers crossed for a stellar 4yo campaign… stand clear of the closing doors!

Posted by dana on Jan 13 2008    
Filed Under: Mushka, Dan Ilman, Wrap Up, Santa Anita, Fairgrounds, Steve Asmussen, 4yo, El Gato Malo, 2008, Ravel, 3yo, Slew's Tizzy, Hard Spun, Gambling, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Derby Trail, Handicapping, Great Hunter, Dawn After Dawn, Dominican, Racing

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Of course I didn’t bother to check the track condition before I placed my wagers, which where:

Big Truck boxed with Smooth Air, Notgivinmyloveaway & Golden Spikes
WPS on Notgivinmyloveaway
Dime Super on Big Truck, Smooth Air, Notgivinmyloveaway & Golden Spikes

I had a note on Smooth Air for sloppy track (he broke his maiden first out on a sloppy track at Calder)… damn!

It looked like Big Truck came in dead last (update: 5th)… it was hard to tell what was was going on without the split screen. I’d hate to dismiss him to state bred company without one more shot on a non-sloppy track.

Oh well, I guess now is as good a time as any to start that spreadsheet to track my winnings/losings in 2008!

Posted by dana on Jan 05 2008    
Filed Under: 2008, 3yo, Derby Trail, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Racing

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