Happy First Saturday in May! To be honest, I’m a having a little trouble getting jazzed about today with the late scratch of I Want Revenge after all the other defections and breathtaking splendor of Rachel Alexandra being wasted on connections that see the Triple Crown only as a function of showcasing stallions. Talk about a bring down, at least they’re out and proud about it and not trying to pretend that it determines the best 3yo in training… I’ll give them that.

Moving on, another reason why I’m having a hard time getting jazzed is that I felt there was more value apparent in the Oaks card, such as my picks of Miss Isella and Bullsbay, than I can find today. That doesn’t mean I’m not going to try!

Kodiak Kowboy looks tough to beat in the Churchill Down, this is his distance and if the track is still sloppy or off I might single him in any multi-race wagers. An acception to that would be Accredit who should benefit from the added distance… leave him off at your own risk. The Roundhouse is an interesting long shot to me as he’s improving and has placed to Kodiak Kowboy in the past (although he was the fav in the race).

Update: Accredit for the win! Still alive in the Pick 6 and Pick 3. The Roundhouse got up for the 3rd, was really hoping he could get place as I had a little exacta box of the two. Kodiak Kowboy was hard ridden half way through, not his day.

The Eight Belles (nee La Troienne) is a little tough. I’ll go with Just Jenda here but will throw in Warrior Maid and Lady’s Laughter for some fun. Warrior Maid is cutting back to a distance that suits her and has done well on the second off and Lady’s Laughter is more of hunch play than anything. She’s won at a mile on the dirt and placed by a neck to Stone Legacy, who was only 20 or so lengths behind the 2009 Triple Crown winner yesterday. I’m having trouble getting jazzed about Four Gifts as the favorite but the distance should suit her and she’s reunited with her winning jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, which is always something to take note of.

Update: Ugh, Four Gifts beats Just Jenda and leaves me playing for 5 of 6 in the Pick 6. Warrior Maid gets third. Oh, I’m also out of the Pick 3 now too, damn. Time to order pizza!

I really liked Ballymore Lady in the Distaff Turf Mile (look, a race that’s still called Distaff!! ok, maybe my mood is lifting) but I’ll use Elusive Lady, Visit and Lemon Chiffon. I do like Tizaquenna but wonder if she needs to sets the slow pace to win on the turf? I’m not sure that’s going to happen with Rasierra in the race so I’ll stick with my other 3.

Update: Guess that answers that question about Tizaqueena, she can sit off the pace and win! Dawn After Dawn, who looked ready to rock in the parade, hung tough for second while Lemon Chiffon was third. It looked to me like Smith struck Elusive Lady with his whip in the stretch when as he passed with Lemon Chiffon. Elusive Lady, my pick, definitely stopped.

I’m looking forward to betting against Informed Decision in the Humana Distaff, but will not leave her off any multi-race tickets. She hasn’t fared as well switching from synthetic to dirt and Secret Gypsy and Game Face look tough.

Update: I only played a small exacta of Royal Michelle over a few horses because she looked really good in the parade but Informed Decision blew by the rest of the field in the stretch. Naturally I left her off my desperation Pick 3. I think my frat boy neighbors are having a Derby party, maybe I should ask them who they like, ugh!

Before I handicapped the Woodford Reserve I thought I might single Einstein, but regardless of the fact that that Einstein loves the distance and surface combo, Proudinsky and Zambezi Sun are interesting and should do well on the softer turf. Proudinsky is on a roll and training well for Bobby Frankel while Zambezi Sun should finally show what European turf class is about after running on concrete turf and then poly out in Cali. This one should be interesting. After just watching the first turf race of the day, the outside post should also be helpful to Zambezi Sun and Einstein.

Update: As it turns out, I could have singled Einstein. What a race! Very thrilling stretch battle with Einstein getting up in time to beat a very game Cowboy Cal. At least I’m alive in the double. It’s now confirmed that my neighbors are having a Derby party, they’re all dressed up and when their door opened I heard someone explaining what Quinella is.

And now for the big one, the breeding showcase, the Stallion Derby! Like many a player my pick to win is Friesan Fire. I took me until now to really settle on that as my official pick. I almost, ALMOST went with Desert Party.

My A-Team, top 3 are: Friesan Fire / Desert Party / Papa Clem. I would not be surprised to see any of those three win. I will definitely have tri and exact boxes of those three + win bets on Desert Party and Papa Clem (Friesan Fire’s odds will probably be too low for me for a win bet… but if he looks good, who knows!).

I’ll also use Musket Man and Summer Bird. I may do a $1 3/5/all ticket ($204) but am not entirely sure yet. I also ready have some interesting live futuracta tickets with Friesan Fire on top so I’ll wait to see the parade and spend the rest of the afternoon trying to figure out how to construct my tickets.

Good luck, let’s get them all home safe and may the best stallion win!

Update: I had a brutal day at the windows but as it turns out, the only gelding in the field won… take that “Stallion Derby”!

Posted by dana on May 02 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Einstein, Picks, Shaun Bridgmohan, Friesan Fire, Desert Party, Pick 3, I Want Revenge, Rachel Alexandra, Churchill Downs, Trifecta, Bobby Frankel, Handicapping, Derby Trail, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Larry Jones, Kentucky Derby, Exacta, Pick 6, Pick 4, Racing

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Whether you geek out or not, here’s hoping you cash a ticket or two (KumamotoMark)

It’s that time of year… time to geek out! There are a million angles and data points to obsess over and consider when selecting your Derby date, and the fun is just beginning!

Over at DRF Crist puts together a couple of interesting Google docs comparing last year’s crop to this years in terms of number of repeat wins and BSFs. Kennedy has been looking at speed and home court advantage. DRF has compiled a fantastic resource for all things Derby Prep (thanks Kevin!), and these are just a few instances of stuff to geek out on!

No time to obsess over data or compile that giant spreadsheet? I think I can help.

I made a smart ass tweet about my inner 12yo wanting Parade Clown to win the Derby, which elicited this reply from Miss Railbird.

The inner 12YO trifecta: Parade Clown, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy. All that’s needed is a hot dog to make day complete.

Naturally, this took me down the rabbit hole of silly name combos:

Spiteful Diva Exacta Box:
Big Drama / I Want Revenge
(ok, Big Drama is pointed to the Preakness, you may have to hold that one for a few weeks)

Military Heritage Exacta Box:
Musket Man / General Quarters

Booty Call Exacta Box (NSFW):
Mr. Hot Stuff / Giant Oak

Air Force One Exacta Box:
Flying Private / General Quarters

Too Hot to Handle Exacta Box:
Friesan Fire / Mr. Hotstuff

Daddy was a Landscaper Exacta Box:
Papa Clem / Giant Oak

Neighborhoodies Exacta Box:
Quality Road / West Side Bernie

WWII Exacta Box:
General Quarters / Dunkirk

Oompa-Loompa Exacta Box:
Win Willy / Chocolate Candy

Royal Bondage Exacta Box:
Regal Ransom / Hold Me Back

Vegas Frat Boy Exacta Box:
Desert Party / General Quarters

Around the Way Degenerates Exacta Box:
Papa Clem / West Side Bernie

No doubt there are plenty of other possibilities, especially as the field of 2009 Kentucky Derby contenders comes into focus!

Posted by dana on Apr 17 2009    
Filed Under: Desert Party, Dunkirk, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, General Quarters, Papa Clem, Twitter, Giant Oak, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, Exacta, Churchill Downs, Friesan Fire, 2009, Racing

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Yee Haw, it’s a pool party y’all! (Jacob…K)

Today’s third installment of the HANA Pool Party takes place in the 3rd at Mountaineer in the exacta pool. As usual there are free PPs and other items over HANA and this week local Mountaineer handicapper Mark Patterson offers his take.

I love the exacta, not only is it my favorite wager, it’s also my most successful wager (pretty sure I just jinxed myself!). I’ve been home with a nasty cold the past few days but I managed to look over the race yesterday.

The race is pretty evenly matched and while the favorite, Enter the Lion, did stand out a bit, most notably for winning on the cut back, I’m more than likely going to throw him out. Looking back over the charts for the last days uncovered that front runners and stalkers have done overwhelmingly better than off the pace types. The two races where Enter the Lion has won have been won from the off the pace and while he ran his last two on the pace (as if they were sprints) my guess is that he’ll be back off the pace when in sprinting company.

Currently I’m interested in 5, 6, 7 & 8 and am going to wait until I get to eyeball them in the parade to figure out how I’m going to play it. I may just box them all up if they all look decent and the price is right. Legacy Hunter (#5) has done well at the distance and is cutting back, an angle that’s been fairly successful for his trainer, who’s overall stats aren’t bad. The forecast is also calling for rain tonight and this one has won in the slop, if it comes that.

I’m not sure why Take Aim (#6) isn’t the favorite as he’s the only one coming off a win. Kris’s Honor (#7) has also won at the distance and racked up a string of 5 place & shows usually within a length or so of the winner at the end of last year and Hey Reemer is returning to the dirt and reunited with his winning jockey, one of my favorite angles! All of these horses are on the pace runners so they fit the apparent bias going on at Mountaineer.

I’m happy this week’s pool party takes place at night, so all of us working stiffs that can’t watch from work have a chance to watch/wager in real time (even though I’m home sick today and could have watched any race). As always, good luck & have fun!

Update: the one front runner I tossed, Ameliaslandmissle (#9), won at 14-1 and Kris’s Honor (#7) at 3-1 placed. The $2 exacta, or perfecta as they call it at Mountaineer, payed $136. At least my assessment of the front runner bias was right on… see you next week!

Posted by dana on Apr 14 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, HANA, Picks, Exacta, Handicapping, Racing

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Channing Hill at Santa Anita (yausser)

Since I was smart enough to DVR the Florida Derby this week I have now have added a screen capture of the DRF Formulator ad showing two women with the text overlay “for every skill level”, you know, in case you didn’t believe me or thought I might be exaggerating (who, me?).

I’m finding it a touch odd that folks have waited until now to make the many & valid points being raised re: the new British automatic berth. All of these issues were apparent when it was announced, right? As a friend pointed out, “no one complained last week when it knocked Beethoven off the list”. Indeed.

Reminder, the first HANA Pool Party is tomorrow, WRD R6. Check out the HANA blog for free PPs and more. I’ll be playing a $1 exacta box of 1,2,3,6,10,11 with a couple of bucks of on 2 & 6 to win.

After this weekend Quality Road has moved on to my “like like” list, and how! Over at PDI I rated him #2 behind Freisan Fire but in all reality I can’t make a strong case of why one should be over the other so I’m just leaving Freisan Fire in #1 for now. I’m not really buying the LA Derby as non-legit path to winning the Derby. Sure the numbers are daunting but that didn’t stop Street Sense from proving the numbers wrong about Juvenile winners.

Guess I really oughta come up with a new poll now that it’s official that IEAH bought 50% of I Want Revenge. Way to go, those who voted for “Buy Another Derby Prospect”, perhaps you should apply to work at IEAH!

And speaking of that poll, as much as I’d love to see Stardom Bound in the Derby, the more I see the depth in the 3yo filly division the more I want them all to run in the Oaks against each other. Rachel Alexandra vs. Stardom Bound could be the rivalry of the year. And when War Echo comes back later in the year, look out! Check out this eyewitness account of Stardom Bound working at Keeneland.

It should also be noted that several fillies ran with colts this weekend on dirt and they didn’t break down! Please people, let’s move on from fear-based assumption that fillies and colts don’t mix. Just ask Indian Blessing, who picked a very nice check for solid effort against her male colleagues!

Posted by dana on Mar 30 2009    
Filed Under: Stardom Bound, 2009, Indian Blessing, Iavarone, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Rachel Alexandra, Kentucky Oaks, Channing Hill, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, You Can Help, 3yo, Santa Anita, Exacta, Racing

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Stardom Bound & Mike Smith waltz home in the Las Virgenes (Charles Pravata)

Or are things looking up? “Jockeys, Win or Die Trying”, much to the relief of this viewer, turned out to be more substantive than the breakdown packed promotion. This year’s 3yo crop is looking deeper and more consistent than last years and, at least for the moment, there doesn’t seem to be much of anything to bitch about (I know, give it time).

Not that I’m a traffic whore (total lie) but Chantal Sutherland and Zenyatta have been the two most frequent searches to make their way to GbG post-”Jockeys”. Sutherland was already my biggest traffic driver from search results but I’m happy to see that the show not only gave Zenyatta decent coverage, but that it’s resulting in people wanting to know more. The racing camera work is downright stunning and does a lot to promote the game… it’s already exciting enough from the grandstand, but seeing like that should certainly peak some interest.

I do have a few small gripes. I thought they did a touch too much cutting back and forth during the Lady’s Secret stretch drive. The drama of the stretch drive could have stood more on it’s own with just a few cut away shots. I also didn’t like the music at all. For example, I would have preferred the Daft Punk original version of the theme song as opposed to that faux hip hop business (which is Stronger by Kanye West for all you googlers, but check out Daft Punk’s Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger too).

I’m still waiting to hear from one of my non-racing friends to find out what she thought. My mom had this to say in an email “I went past and saw someone get hurt, so I didn’t linger long.” Swifty had the same gripe about the music and, in addition to the theme song, specifically mentioned the music while Sutherland was crying (which I don’t remember). But he and I both agreed that overall the show seems likely to get people interested in racing, which is great! Maybe they’ll shoot the second season at Saratoga?

I’m not sure when Derby preps start to air but I hope media buyers for ESPN, NBC, etc. think to place some ads during the show. Seems like the perfect opportunity to generate some new fans. Perhaps the NTRA has already of thought of this and is on the case, I hope so!

Ask and you shall be given, it was a good day of racing indeed! I only handicapped the Risen Star and managed to hit the exacta. I boxed Friesan Fire, Flying Pegasus and Indygo Mountain. I wasn’t entirely sure how the pace scenario was going to play out as there was no clear speed but I thought it might have ended up a little faster.

Friesan Fire and Flying Pegasus are both on my list but I’m interested to see what Indygo Mountain will do in a faster pace scenario. He definitely improved from the Lecomte and got caught in a bit a traffic just when he had some run so I’m not discounting him just yet. Uno Mas also improved from the Lecomte and had I watched the replay a little more closely I might have caught that he was closing at the end and was probably likely to improve. And, needless to say, Giant Oak’s trip was pretty rough, again! I’ll be keeping an eye on both of them as well.

War Echo looked great in the Silverbulletday. I threw a little money away in that race combining her with Just Jenda and Southern Yankee based on the parade. War Echo was the visual stand out in the parade and I can’t wait to see her again.

On the west coast I don’t really need to wax poetic about Stardom Bound too much. Although, does this mean I’ll end up liking Iavarone and Babe this year? I thought Pioneerof the Nile’s stretch drive was pretty eye popping and can’t believe that I’m interested in California horses this year. I guess anything is possible!

Crist has a good post about the “brave new world” of synthetic racing particularly as it pertains to Beyer Speed Figures. I don’t really use BSFs because they don’t take pace into account, and as Crist points out, Stardom Bound’s low BSF doesn’t tell the whole tale. I noticed last week the top two finishers of the Holy Bull had the lowest BSFs of the field, both at 76.

One similarity to last year’s crop is that, with the exception of the Spectacular Bid, the pace has been pretty moderate in almost every race. Is Notonthesamepage the only front running speed horse in the group or am I forgetting someone? I’d love to see what Indygo Mountain, and Flying Pegasus for that matter, would do in that kind of pace scenario!

And finally, Sarah and Charles were both in action yesterday at Aqueduct and Santa Anita respectively. Apparently Charles was in a couple of shots of the second episode of Jockeys, I think Sarah’s on to something with the drinking game idea. Cheers!

Posted by dana on Feb 08 2009    
Filed Under: Giant Oak, Notonthesamepage, War Echo, Friesan Fire, 2009, Stardom Bound, Flying Pegasus, Just Jenda, Jockeys TV Show, Risen Star, Iavarone, Richard Dutrow, Mike Smith, Zenyatta, Fairgrounds, TV, NTRA, Marketing, Kentucky Derby, Derby Trail, Chantal Sutherland, 3yo, Exacta, Mainstream Media, Wrap Up, Sarah K. Andrew, Charles Pravata, Santa Anita, Racing

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