Happy First Saturday in May! To be honest, I’m a having a little trouble getting jazzed about today with the late scratch of I Want Revenge after all the other defections and breathtaking splendor of Rachel Alexandra being wasted on connections that see the Triple Crown only as a function of showcasing stallions. Talk about a bring down, at least they’re out and proud about it and not trying to pretend that it determines the best 3yo in training… I’ll give them that.

Moving on, another reason why I’m having a hard time getting jazzed is that I felt there was more value apparent in the Oaks card, such as my picks of Miss Isella and Bullsbay, than I can find today. That doesn’t mean I’m not going to try!

Kodiak Kowboy looks tough to beat in the Churchill Down, this is his distance and if the track is still sloppy or off I might single him in any multi-race wagers. An acception to that would be Accredit who should benefit from the added distance… leave him off at your own risk. The Roundhouse is an interesting long shot to me as he’s improving and has placed to Kodiak Kowboy in the past (although he was the fav in the race).

Update: Accredit for the win! Still alive in the Pick 6 and Pick 3. The Roundhouse got up for the 3rd, was really hoping he could get place as I had a little exacta box of the two. Kodiak Kowboy was hard ridden half way through, not his day.

The Eight Belles (nee La Troienne) is a little tough. I’ll go with Just Jenda here but will throw in Warrior Maid and Lady’s Laughter for some fun. Warrior Maid is cutting back to a distance that suits her and has done well on the second off and Lady’s Laughter is more of hunch play than anything. She’s won at a mile on the dirt and placed by a neck to Stone Legacy, who was only 20 or so lengths behind the 2009 Triple Crown winner yesterday. I’m having trouble getting jazzed about Four Gifts as the favorite but the distance should suit her and she’s reunited with her winning jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, which is always something to take note of.

Update: Ugh, Four Gifts beats Just Jenda and leaves me playing for 5 of 6 in the Pick 6. Warrior Maid gets third. Oh, I’m also out of the Pick 3 now too, damn. Time to order pizza!

I really liked Ballymore Lady in the Distaff Turf Mile (look, a race that’s still called Distaff!! ok, maybe my mood is lifting) but I’ll use Elusive Lady, Visit and Lemon Chiffon. I do like Tizaquenna but wonder if she needs to sets the slow pace to win on the turf? I’m not sure that’s going to happen with Rasierra in the race so I’ll stick with my other 3.

Update: Guess that answers that question about Tizaqueena, she can sit off the pace and win! Dawn After Dawn, who looked ready to rock in the parade, hung tough for second while Lemon Chiffon was third. It looked to me like Smith struck Elusive Lady with his whip in the stretch when as he passed with Lemon Chiffon. Elusive Lady, my pick, definitely stopped.

I’m looking forward to betting against Informed Decision in the Humana Distaff, but will not leave her off any multi-race tickets. She hasn’t fared as well switching from synthetic to dirt and Secret Gypsy and Game Face look tough.

Update: I only played a small exacta of Royal Michelle over a few horses because she looked really good in the parade but Informed Decision blew by the rest of the field in the stretch. Naturally I left her off my desperation Pick 3. I think my frat boy neighbors are having a Derby party, maybe I should ask them who they like, ugh!

Before I handicapped the Woodford Reserve I thought I might single Einstein, but regardless of the fact that that Einstein loves the distance and surface combo, Proudinsky and Zambezi Sun are interesting and should do well on the softer turf. Proudinsky is on a roll and training well for Bobby Frankel while Zambezi Sun should finally show what European turf class is about after running on concrete turf and then poly out in Cali. This one should be interesting. After just watching the first turf race of the day, the outside post should also be helpful to Zambezi Sun and Einstein.

Update: As it turns out, I could have singled Einstein. What a race! Very thrilling stretch battle with Einstein getting up in time to beat a very game Cowboy Cal. At least I’m alive in the double. It’s now confirmed that my neighbors are having a Derby party, they’re all dressed up and when their door opened I heard someone explaining what Quinella is.

And now for the big one, the breeding showcase, the Stallion Derby! Like many a player my pick to win is Friesan Fire. I took me until now to really settle on that as my official pick. I almost, ALMOST went with Desert Party.

My A-Team, top 3 are: Friesan Fire / Desert Party / Papa Clem. I would not be surprised to see any of those three win. I will definitely have tri and exact boxes of those three + win bets on Desert Party and Papa Clem (Friesan Fire’s odds will probably be too low for me for a win bet… but if he looks good, who knows!).

I’ll also use Musket Man and Summer Bird. I may do a $1 3/5/all ticket ($204) but am not entirely sure yet. I also ready have some interesting live futuracta tickets with Friesan Fire on top so I’ll wait to see the parade and spend the rest of the afternoon trying to figure out how to construct my tickets.

Good luck, let’s get them all home safe and may the best stallion win!

Update: I had a brutal day at the windows but as it turns out, the only gelding in the field won… take that “Stallion Derby”!

Posted by dana on May 02 2009    
Filed Under: 2009, Einstein, Picks, Shaun Bridgmohan, Friesan Fire, Desert Party, Pick 3, I Want Revenge, Rachel Alexandra, Churchill Downs, Trifecta, Bobby Frankel, Handicapping, Derby Trail, That's Why They Call it Gambling, Larry Jones, Kentucky Derby, Exacta, Pick 6, Pick 4, Racing

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Notional w/Joe Bravo up comes back with an upset in the Salvatore Mile at Monmouth (Sarah K. Andrew)

Today was the kind of day that reminds me why I fell in love with racing almost 2 years ago. Swifty and I planned on heading out to Belmont today come rain or shine, and while we didn’t get much shine we also didn’t get any rain. A few friends were planning to meet up at Monmouth for the United Nations and Salvatore Mile, but I really just wanted to have a nice quiet day at my beloved Belmont.

Swifty was hanging out with his 12 year old nephew Ted this weekend, or as I like to call him, the Future Handicappers of America. He joined us last year for Swifty’s birthday outing and proved to be a bit precocious picking Dance Away Capote in the Duda Stakes.

Since it had been raining for two days, all but one of the turf races were on the dirt and there were a bunch of scratches. I only lightly handicapped so I wasn’t planning on playing very heavily to begin with. We got there not too long before the 3rd. My pick, Akin, had scratched so I took a pass. In the 4th I put Paris Winds over Them There Eyes for a couple bucks to no avail. In fact, I didn’t cash a ticket all day (again) but it started to get interesting in the 5th race.

I usually don’t like to play maiden races. I don’t have an affinity for using breeding in handicapping, although it’s on my list to work on, so I just throw a couple of bucks on a long shot here and there. The 5th was a Maiden Special Weight and no different for me… except no one was at long odds. In the paddock #9, Discreet Treasure was really acting up. There was no audio to speak of in the grandstand so we couldn’t hear what Jason Blewitt or Jan Rushton were saying, but Discreet Treasure was pretty worked up.

It was a 7F turf race that moved to the dirt. Quickly looking over the entrants I noticed that Discreet Treasure, a first time starter, was only showing one work on turf, and not even the last one! As they came out for the parade he looked great, perhaps too great. Did he leave his race in the paddock? Number 10, Counterspy, looked good too so I boxed them.

I’ll just let you watch the race for yourself… he’s the grey. A very big thanks to Party Manners for posting it!!

As it turns out, he’s a half to Discreet Cat, not that I knew that until I got home and watched Throughbred Action. And as great as it is on the replay it was even more thrilling in person. I can’t wait to see more of him!

The next race was also fantastic. It was a state bred allowance for non-winners of two. You may remember the name Overextended from the very beginning Derby Trail. He ran primarily on the west coast in all the big preps as a 2yo and even placed to Colonel John in the Real Quiet. I didn’t incorporate him into my losing trifecta key with Dr. W on top of the 4 long shots but his race was great nonetheless.

Just like Discreet Treasure he sat way off the pace, and talk about procrastinating, he still wasn’t in the race at the 1/16th pole! Then out of nowhere he closed like freight train… all I can say is welcome to New York! Previously trained by Doug O’Neill and now trained by Mark Henig, I’m sure we’ll be seeing him round these parts more often!

I liked the undefeated By The Light in the Prioress although I knew Indian Blessing would be tough at the distance on a muddy track. I was hoping it would have been Indian Blessing pressing Secret Gypsy with By The Light sitting off the pace but Indian Blessing has finally shown she can rate.

It was great to see Indian Blessing back and I thought By The Light was impressive given this was her first graded race! I had the 2 of them in a tri-box with Secret Gypsy but Indian Way spoiled that on the wire.

We busted out there right after the race and I got home in time to see the United Nations. I would have liked to have seen the Salvatore Mile, especially given that Notional pulled an upset! This really made my day… I loved him in the Risen Star was bummed when he had to drop off the Derby Trail with an injury. His 4 yo campaign has had an Evening Attire-like start, so to see him come back with a nice win that puts him in the BC was yet another excellent moment in a very satisfying race day. You can see it here, if it shows up on YouTube I’ll post it here as well.

I love that Mary Hartmann, Mary Hartmann and Precious Passion won the United Nations! I don’t know too much about her, except that I loved her sunglasses and Randy Moss (or someone) said that she started off as a hot walker some 20 years ago. But seriously, it’s always great to see one of the many non-high profile, hard working trainers win a big race and when it’s a woman it’s even more special. It goes without saying that there’s that extra level of “it ain’t easy” for women who work in a business that’s male dominated such a sports, or in my case, technology. So, good for her!

And to top it all off, Zenyatta stayed undefeated holding off an impressively closing Tough Tiz’s Sis in the Vanity Handicap. 6 for 6… is she looking more interesting for the Classic to you yet?

Posted by dana on Jul 05 2008    
Filed Under: TBA, Monmouth Park, Wrap Up, Discreet Cat, Dance Away Capote, :), Randy Moss, Doug O'Neill, Zenyatta, Tough Tiz's Sis, Indian Blessing, 4yo, 2008, Sarah K. Andrew, Sprint, Inspirational, Maiden, Race Replay, Breeders' Cup, Breeding, Belmont, Come Back, Turf, Trifecta, BC Classic, YouTube, Notional, Evening Attire, Racing

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Tale of Ekati winning the Wood as my phone flies over the balcony at Aqueduct (Sarah K. Andrew)

Let’s start by examining my proclivity for procrastination. The upsides are clear, I tend to do things I normally wouldn’t like wash dishes, dust bust numerous hairballs from the Home Zoo and post plenty of “interesting content“.

This pathological behavior does, however, have a downside… one of them being that I didn’t end up with enough time to publish a post about why Tale of Ekati was my pick of the day yesterday before I had to run out to catch the A train to the Big A. But we’ll get to that (yes, I’m now going to meta-procrastinate).

Here’s a post I’ve been meaning to write for awhile, “Facebook, it’s not just for the rotten kids”. Of the many social networking sites, Facebook is the only one that “has delivered” for me for anything other than time wasting (don’t get me wrong, it’s great for that!) and proving that you’re a bigger hipster than everyone else.

I met the Hennegan Brothers on Facebook, taken part in many great discussions with people inside the industry, and now hung out with a fun bunch of Fans of Thoroughbred Racing in New York.

Group creator, the fabulous Ernie Munick (giving the thumbs up next Pablo Fragoso), organized the day billed as “Day of Degeneracy” to get people in the group to come out to the track and actually hang out (instead of just post on the group’s wall).

He also arranged for us to have our picture taken in the winner’s circle! I always wondered how to go about getting “Happy Birthday Adam “Swifty” Wiener” in the NYRA program, and now I know… you just call and give them $300! Get a group of 10 folks together and can’t afford not to do it.

Here we are, in all our glory (I’m on the far right… ironic, no?):

Note the title of the picture “Thoroughbred Racing in New York “Facebook”. It also said this in the program! This is what I meant by pioneering an analog/digital mashup… this is no doubt the first time a NYRA program has the word Facebook in it… I love it when worlds collide!

Several of the TBA folks were included in this group, Jessica at Railbird, Teresa at Brooklyn Backstretch and Alan at Left at Gate (who’s not pictured… he was very busy live blogging the whole day).

John stopped by for a few moments in between meeting, greeting and kissing babies to get folks to the premiere in 2 weeks. And of course, Swifty was there (behind Ernie in the Classy & Classic sunglasses)… we wouldn’t miss a chance to be in the winner’s circle, or perhaps more appropriately, the Wiener’s Circle (Swifty = Adam Wiener).

Did I mention it was nice out? Notice us there, no coats. We ended up sitting outside all day in a box right in front of the finish line. We were on the third floor and there was a little balcony right in front of us that was gated. The gate was rail height (about 3 feet?) so at one point Jessica started to climb over it to get a better view of the paddock below. A helpful NYRA employee came over and unlocked it for us, no doubt guessing that it would just be easier than telling us to stop climbing over it all day.

The races were great and the place was packed. When I go to a track, I like to play the card… maybe not every race, but I find it distracting to have to pop over to the TV to watch a race elsewhere and then have my final decision making time eaten into. Surprise, I also procrastinate when it comes to wagering! With this in mind I decided to take pass on playing the bazillion great stakes races not at Aqueduct.

Prior to the Wood I was doing ok, compared to how I’ve been doing on the year I was doing great, but by normal standards I was doing just OK. I had the exacta in the 6th which brought me back to within $4 of being even. I didn’t do anything interesting in the 7th or 8th, although Jessica & Swifty had Temporary Saint in the Excelsior, but the Wood was different story.

I’m always refining my handicapping style, looking for more efficient or productive ways to analyze the data. Some things I’ve started to do recently have really been helpful. I take several passes at all of the horses, in one of those passes I note the predominant running style and type of pace the horse needs to perform well. While looking at this aspect of the Wood, I noted that Tale of Ekati needed a faster pace than he got in Louisiana Derby to do his best.

In another pass I examine the workouts. Is there any pattern, how did they work prior to their last races, have they been training for endurance, speed, etc. My note on Maryfield prior to the BC was “if she fires a bullet work before the race, seriously consider her”… and she did.

Combine Tale of Ekati’s comment line with his recent two works. “Brushed break, no factor” and two handled 4F gate works at 47.2 and 47.4 geared towards increasing his speed out of the gate. I then went to watch the replay of the Louisiana Derby… bingo. He broke very tentatively, got headed and then checked out of the race. Combine all of this with impending speed duel on the front end ensuring a brisk pace and it looked really promising for Take of Ekati.

I also thought the race would set up well for Court Vision, Bill Mott didn’t put Inner Light in to help Take of Ekati! This was one of those rare times when a flash of handicapping insight occurs with my ability to wager correctly. Here’s what I did:

Tale of Ekati to Win
Exacta box of Tale of Ekati & Court Vision
Trifecta box of Tale of Ekati, Court Vision & War Pass
Anak Nakal across the board (I thought he would improve under this pace scenario, and he did, but not enough).

Fast forward to the race… Tale of Ekati broke like a dream (he’s a good student and Barclay Tagg is a good teacher!) and Inner Light was pushing War Pass into fast fractions. Things were all going according to plan. As they came into the stretch War Pass still had a decent lead but Tale of Ekati starts to come on, and come on strong.

As they come to the wire it looks like Tale of Ekati is going to get up in time… we’re all on the balcony jumping up and down, screaming like nuts when I notice something fly out of my inside jacket pocket.

Just as Tale of Ekati is making my day, my attention is turned to the box seats below to see my phone land right behind some unsuspecting guy and what appeared to be his father! It took me a few seconds to realize that Tale of Ekati did indeed win AND that I hit the tri!

I’m also happy to report that not only does my phone still work, it didn’t even have a scratch… and perhaps the best part is it didn’t injure anyone!

As if this all wasn’t great enough, I also managed to get over my fear of betting horses to win. I liked Curlin to win the Classic, Swifty and I spent almost 2 hours the night before discussing the favorites in the classic to compare and contrast each of them. Curlin it was, and at 9/2 did I bet him to win? No. This time, just like Tale of Ekati, I learned from last mistake and corrected it under favorable conditions.

It was a perfect day on many levels… and I was lucky enough to share it with some great folks! Of course it was nice to have a bunch of witnesses to a rare flash of handicapping insight, but the best part by far was that, contrary to what seems to be going on, racing felt very much alive.

Posted by dana on Apr 06 2008    
Filed Under: Wrap Up, TBA, Maryfield, War Pass, Sarah K. Andrew, Aqueduct, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati, Running Style, 2008, Internet, Trifecta, Exacta, Handicapping, Derby Trail, Curlin, Fans, Barclay Tagg, NYRA, Workouts, First Saturday in May, Hennegan Brothers, Come Back, Racing

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My own, that is. I spent the day catching up on a lot of things I normally would do at the beginning of the year… setting up my filing system for this year, doing some general tidying of my work area, etc.

Part of this long neglected task was addressing the giant undealt with pile of past performances that had accumulated near my desk. My first thought was that there might be some value in keeping them around, but as looked through them my notes were not exactly full of the kind of insight that warrants keeping giant piles of paper in a Manhattan apartment.

It wasn’t a total wash, I confirmed what I had started to suspect yesterday afternoon… I really shouldn’t play the Dubai World Cup. I didn’t hit anything last year or this. I don’t pay too much attention to international racing and without the running lines and workouts I may as well just throw my money out the window (again).

I also didn’t do so hot on last year’s Florida Derby card either… but better than this year in that I cashed one ticket. I had the trifecta in the Skip Away (A.P Arrow, Rehoboth, Political Force).

A few other items of note… I happen to do well with claiming & allowance races at Belmont, I play a decent amount of trifectas and more often than not I have 2 of the horses with the 3rd coming in 4th. Also, I’m really not afraid to gamble!

On that note, one of the many phone conversations I had with Swifty yesterday went something like this:

me: “you can watch race replays on twinspires”
Swifty: “really? cool, let me call you back”

Swifty: “I’ve realized a fear today… twinspires is really easy to use. a little too easy”
me: “why do you think I’m down so &*^%-ing much already this year?”

Posted by dana on Mar 30 2008    
Filed Under: Dubai World Cup, 2008, Twinspires, Trifecta, Money Management, Gambling, Derby Trail, International Racing, Racing

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Johnny Eves and David Flores winning the Malibu (Charles Pravata)

I’m a little bummed that I didn’t handicap the Malibu [DRF], not that I would have hit anything. This was just the kind the kind of race I love to play… a decent sized field with only a couple of favorites and a lot of potential at nice odds. These types of fields are more typical of allowance or claiming races, rarely graded stakes, let alone a G1… let’s hope there’s more of this in 2008!

I threw a little sentimental bet on Great Hunter, I’ll have to watch the replay to see his performance. It looked like he was either a little bottled up or hesitant about pushing his way through, hard to tell. Either way I’m glad he’s back.

I thought Cobalt Blue looked good in the parade and I noticed Johnny Eves ($24) in the parade as well. I was also happy to see Hurry Up Austin get up for 4th, I’ve always liked him for whatever reason.

I love to see a horse step up the way Johnny Eves did. Jay Robbins, his trainer, said in the post race interview that he trains like good horse… good to see him proof it. And let’s hear it for geldings! David Flores is also off with a bang winning 4 on the card.

If you were lucky enough to have the $1 Super, you had a 120,856.50 payday. If you had the $1 trifecta, you had a $8,831.50 payday!

In other payout news, even with 3 races paying out more than $20 per winner, the Pick 6 was hit at Aqueduct!

The results are as follows:
  4th: Wild Garden ($3.50)
  5th: Cherna ($40.40)
  6th: Hunsley Bunsley ($8.70
  7th: Dance Gal Dance ($23.40)
  8th: Beau Dare ($8.10)
  9th: Unbreelievable ($20.40)

$2 Payout: $91,252… congrats to all who hit that ticket! Definitely Ubreelievable.

Malibu race replay at NTRA.

Posted by dana on Dec 26 2007    
Filed Under: Charles Pravata, Geldings, Superfecta, Santa Anita, Trifecta, Great Hunter, 2007, Pick 6, Racing

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